KLCI Stock - GAMUDA / 5398 - 2012 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Listing Date	1992-08-10
Market Capital (Capital Size)	7,598,346,678 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00
Board	Main
Sector	Construction
Major Industry	Engineering & Construction
Sub Industry	Property Development
Website	http://www.gamuda.com.my

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(3.65-0.12)/0.2896 = 12.19 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.91+0.12 = 4.03 (PE 13.5, EPS 0.2896, DPS 0.12)
Decision	BUY if stock price rebound follow SMA50 or lower price
Comment	Revenue increased 37.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.6%, eps increased 2.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.5%, cash generated from operating and dividend received not enough to cover financing expenses but got cash generated from financing to cover all other expenses, operating margin lower than previous three quarter 3-6% but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4%, liquidity ratio indicate can meet current obligation, higher gearing ratio with higher assets indicate expand the business with higher leverage, property development costs surge can indicate more contribution from property development division in the future, Water & Expressway Concessions division weakening, Engineering & Construction division growth
First Support Price	3.5
Second Support Price	3.43
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Affin Target Price	4.21 (2012-03-29)
Jupiter Target Price	3.9 (2012-05-16)
Alliance Target Price	4.77 (2012-09-28)
CIMB Target Price	4.2 (2012-09-28)
ECM Target Price	3.47 (2012-09-28)
HLG Target Price	3.85 (2012-09-28)
HwangDBS Target Price	4.75 (2012-09-28)
Maybank Target Price	4.1 (2012-09-28)
OSK Target Price	4.33 (2012-09-28)
Public Target Price	4.62 (2012-09-28)
RHB Target Price	3.72 (2012-09-28)
TA Target Price	4.27 (2012-09-28)
Kenanga Target Price	4.13 (2012-10-01)
MIDF Target Price	4.32 (2012-10-17)
AMMB Target Price	4.4 (2012-11-07)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	14.08%
Dividend Yield	3.29%
Operating Profit Margin	15.67%
Net Profit Margin	18.22%
Tax Rate	20.39%
Asset Turnover	0.3634
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.89
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.84
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.85
Cash Per Share	0.62
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.6846
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.9889
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.4313
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.0438
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4974
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	68.8%
Days to sell the inventory	315
Days to collect the receivables	202
Days to pay the payables	183

Technical Analysis 

SMA 10	3.658 (Downtrend)
SMA 20	3.592 (Uptrend 31 days)
SMA 50	3.498 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	3.498 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	3.517 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.051897 ( 0.00346 )
Signal (9)	0.048668 ( 0.000807 )
MACD Histogram	0.003229 (Bullish trend 14 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	3.791
Bolinger Lower Band	3.393

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt than FY11Q4 due to higher contributions from the construction and property divisions

- Higher pbt from construction division resulted from higher work progress from the Electrified Double Tracking Project

- Higher pbt from Property division than FY11Q4 resulted from existing projects in Malaysia and the land sale to Aeon Co. of Japan in Celadon City, Vietnam

- Lower pbt from Water & Expressway Concessions division resulted from lower contribution by LITRAK, the concessionaire of the LDP, due to its higher amortisation of highway development expenditure based on the revised toll revenue projections prepared by independent consultants

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 4268871*0.145/2137025 = 0.2896, estimate PE on current price 3.65 = 12.19(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 4207397*0.145/2137025 = 0.2855, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 4045187*0.145/2123909 = 0.2762, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.51 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0626+0.0585)*2 = 0.2422, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.77/12.1 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0542+0.0585)*2 = 0.2254, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.86/11.85 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.177*1.1 = 0.1947, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.77/12.89 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0439*4*1.05 = 0.1844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.77/18.71 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0789*2*1.05 = 0.1657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.98/20.64 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.84/20.47 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)

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