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Tuesday, November 13, 2012

KLCI Stock - F&N / 3689 - 2012 Quarter 4

FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BERHAD


Company Description
FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BERHAD and its subsidiaries are engaged in the manufacturing and selling of glass containers, soft drinks, dairy products, property development activities, and providing management services. The Company operates in five business segments: soft drinks, dairy products, glass containers, property and others. The Company’s subsidiaries include Malaya Glass Products Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in the manufacturing and selling of glass containers; Fraser & Neave (Malaya) Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in the management services and property investment holdings; F&NCC Beverages Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in the manufacturing of soft drinks, and F&N Coca-Cola (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in the distribution of soft drinks. In May 2008, the Company incorporated F&N Capital Sdn Bhd. In June 2008, the Company acquired Tropical League Sdn Bhd. In June 2008, the Company acquired the remaining 5% interest in Borneo Springs Sdn Bhd.

Company Info 
Listing Date1970-08-03
Market Capital (Capital Size)6,758,259,798 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorConsumer Products
Major IndustryFood & Beverages
Sub IndustryProperty Development
Websitehttp://www.fn.com.my

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(18.6-0.58)/0.5775 = 31.20 (Moderate)
Target Price19.35+0.58 = 19.93 (PE 33.5, EPS 0.5775, DPS 0.58)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price strong sustain and uptrend above SMA200
Comment
Revenue decreased 3.2% and also lower than preceding year corresponding period 12.8%, eps increased 42.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.5%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence increased borrowings and spent 21.5% of Group cash to cover other expenses, operating margin remain low, liquidity ratio indicate financial strength is weakeaning and is tightly enough to meet current obligation, lower gearing ratio and lower assets can indicate business temporary slow down, all accounting of turnover period is good, most business segment growth quarter-by-quarter
First Support Price18.5
Second Support Price16.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
AMMB Target Price18 (2012-11-09)
Maybank Target Price20.8 (2012-11-09)
CIMB Target Price18.6 (2012-11-12)
MIDF Target Price15.17 (2012-11-12)
TA Target Price19.03 (2012-11-12)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity17.58%
Dividend Yield3.12%
Operating Profit Margin7.51%
Net Profit Margin7.43%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover1.2427
Net Asset Value Per Share4.28
Net Tangible Asset per share3.91
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.79
Cash Per Share0.63
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1801
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8009
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2275
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6767
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4036
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale5.6%
Days to sell the inventory46
Days to collect the receivables58
Days to pay the payables69

Technical Analysis 
SMA 1019.178 (Downtrend)
SMA 2019.025 (Downtrend 2 days)
SMA 5018.942 (Downtrend)
SMA 10018.961 (Uptrend)
SMA 20018.503 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.00168 ( 0.036184 )
Signal (9)0.07893 ( 0.020152 )
MACD Histogram0.080610 (Bearish trend 4 days)
Bolinger Upper Band20.113
Bolinger Lower Band17.937

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q4 mainly due to absence of the Coca-Cola business but if excluding Coca-Cola then revenue rose 4% aided by strong export volume growth in soft drinks and dairies Malaysia divisions

- Soft drinks revenue (excluding Coca-Cola) increased 4% mainly contributed by well executed Hari Raya promotional activities. Last year’s selling weeks were longer, and on a normalised basis, the revenue would have increased 12% on higher volume, better pack mix and incremental revenue from export sale and contract packing for its related company in Singapore

- Dairies Malaysia’s revenue improved 8% from higher export sales while domestic sales were flat and continued to be impacted by aggressive competitors’ trade offers as well as discounts. Dairies Malaysia had thus embarked on various trade and marketing activities to boost consumer consumption

- With Dairies Thailand resuming production in the previous quarter, both sterilised milk and sweetened beverage creamer had recorded strong growth and attained the pre-flood market level. The market leadership position of evaporated (Evap) milk was, however, threatened by a key competitor who took advantage of the out of stock situation during the flood period

- Lower pbt than FY11Q4 mainly attributable to the absence of both the Coca-Cola contribution and a net reversal of provision from the divestment of the glass business

- Group PAT recorded an improvement of 11%, having benefitted from the recognition of RM19 million deferred tax asset (DTA) on the remaining lines upon their commercial production. The DTA was in relation to the Halal hub tax incentive granted to the Pulau Indah (PI) plant

- Higher PBT than FY12Q3 mainly due to the non-incurrence of relocation expenses and accelerated depreciation relating to the Dairies plant in PJ. Most of the relocation occurred in the previous quarter and accelerated depreciation ended on 30 June 2012

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 1554537*0.135/363374 = 0.5775(exclude tax income), estimate PE on current price 18.6 = 31.2(DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 1462367*0.13/363226 = 0.5234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/32.9 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 1478221*0.12/362737 = 0.489, estimate highest/lowest PE = 43.07/33.46 (DPS 0.44)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1597694*0.11/362592 = 0.4847, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.72/33.36 (DPS 0.43)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.2151*4*0.95 = 0.8174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.18/19.78 (DPS 0.97)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.3+0.2151)*2*0.7 = 0.7211, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.64/21.43 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.3*4 = 1.2(exclude RM53 million from sale of property income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.02/14.52 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2*4 = 0.8(around 5% ROE), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.09/18.07 (DPS 0.545)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.875*0.95 = 0.8313, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.58/15.82 (DPS 1.645)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.8236(correction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/15.85 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0072(10% grow from 0.4578*2), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.43/10.18 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.961(10% grow from 0.2184*4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.06/10.44 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.8195, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.58/12.04 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.8, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.79/11.29 (DPS 0.47)

F&N latest news (English)

F&N latest news (Chinese)

Material price

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateoper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-11-0820124N/AN/A0.384.72%17.58%868363323878664476230208735992740300.20230.754126063261181907105178910015152541554537965551499709002290290534156241722787336380636337468177242012-09-307.51%7.43%-1.242724.84994.283.914.790.631.18010.80090.22750.67670.40365.6%465869
2012-08-072012320.4817.8-3.31%12.86%896696237042354496165732516282004310.14210.55182632232128774311698659716852931462367354651252766613290290898119642419386636333836322673902942012-06-306.23%6.08%5.26%1.2787-4.033.665.560.531.32530.83560.19950.80010.44449.4%556186
2012-05-072012221.516.80.26.87%9.54%7304291473727576961112361070571488030.29500.410225418701236828106364986719429414782213175176293143412902901080449370319658736287736273768946632012-03-317.78%7.90%-1.3186-4.073.715.120.541.42620.90250.22670.71970.418511.0%545871
2012-02-032012119.216.6-2.68%2.68%743298743298535405354041746417460.11510.1151248025012529938825566847462941597694215297438922738290290959187318021711036259236259263816192011-12-317.19%7.20%22.03%1.4638-4.414.044.360.61.82991.25270.31710.55250.355815.7%445971
2011-11-042011419.117.140.623.68%21.32%995462391543174035463656662073831300.18301.060424758391273599916727717301294155911242392727961179336193933514431664904529029036184336131762019892011-09-306.56%7.44%10.57%1.581516.16424.313.964.330.81.77551.23290.40470.58810.370314.2%415072
2011-08-052011318.915.86-4.33%17.64%882475291996991997389621778513169230.21510.8775264604415176821181314976508294146473031868516713952789693933515154637635056298536197136114668412512011-06-309.76%10.42%15.38%1.4778-4.053.75.111.561.55421.17420.57650.80670.446413.8%394970
2011-05-052011219.818.00.357.35%13.31%100946820374941615802976241319882390720.36570.66302574260150797210596918553742941514569187935904525244489393359748342696551237036087736061266401362011-03-3115.88%16.01%18.31%1.523-4.23.854.781.421.76291.3120.5990.69980.411616.6%415268
2011-02-072011118.7615.0-5.96%5.96%102802610280261360441360441070841070840.29750.297530840892032620155665013493952941527439651710786588149393351013489253484680135991435991453915112010-12-3112.85%13.23%21.29%1.2267-4.243.93.842.351.50631.10090.62751.01930.504718.1%596180
2010-11-082010416.2614.80.3832.80%49.33%99025136377264841417760284623166952911.28731.94222968920198115511721109650152941796810496900586923332341187853108382375148293933535914335798852506702010-09-309.97%48.89%4.51%1.26227.52755.024.673.132.622.0531.53110.97340.65240.394827.1%555182
2010-08-052010314.913.521.14.97%16.53%892772264747585454291887700062329750.19600.6520290421719196891457258110361610756614469593711371343741730821501232367636368121380435717335732451004302010-06-3010.24%9.57%20.97%1.2621-3.753.384.220.61.73951.2960.19371.0880.501822.3%545278
2010-05-062010215.010.720.1656.05%11.56%8720951754703104716206434852321629690.23940.45782880916152229914340291024199-1446887248161777271137721878531704345666224451535600035600038163202010-03-3111.60%12.01%18.32%1.2519-4.063.72.90.691.48630.87060.23870.99110.497813.8%716488
2010-02-092010111.110.5-5.52%5.52%99215999215910305710305777737777370.21840.2184285851215028771382912967431114489147560015127033821492471878531174496820225605535600035600037380002009-12-3110.75%10.39%23.66%1.285-3.823.463.030.721.55350.93210.26471.0160.483814.6%666384
2009-11-092009411.610.340.34.64%17.04%908304373706367543299777610832244320.17160.630427599021397262135049993130411625914094034021413694082852318364332733421018785335600035600037593602009-09-307.61%7.44%2.41%1.312216.75063.633.263.240.531.50030.79740.20171.04440.489312.9%725577
2009-08-062009310.79.5-4.49%12.40%834180247467484519232912591171633490.16610.4588273370515059151354523943618150988137918227936218796423248183643913986815025179335600035600034888002009-06-309.34%10.13%25.37%1.3213-3.453.193.070.711.59590.9670.26681.10290.495515.6%656681
2009-05-04200929.98.60.174.05%7.91%938537187892576649150487532811042320.14970.292826400531466382127734685746914855713627071951211093478705183643857747706926071235600035600031150002009-03-318.61%8.17%23.53%1.3873-3.413.152.780.731.71011.03230.3041.0520.483816.6%636170
2009-02-11200919.057.3-3.87%3.87%940388940388738387383850951509510.14310.1431266881915401331299217877228139250136960245507355392722318364399683719122083435600035600032040002008-12-318.27%7.85%25.08%1.3608-3.463.22.810.621.75571.01950.25171.0560.486818.3%706878
2008-11-06200849.08.050.32.72%13.07%898977359120451057239672347411668450.09760.468725140891391372119693377020013500213171563338012235271344302077991102742415618364335600035600029726002008-09-306.16%5.68%28.42%1.428417.81653.323.062.730.521.80651.040.23841.01250.476117.3%656372
2008-08-07200839.17.7-3.11%10.35%884587269222756454188615396561321040.11140.371124203831421990116176110173231311151258622158106119126100328207799389806134814645135600035600032040002008-06-306.82%6.38%24.48%1.4423-3.172.923.080.411.39780.84620.1441.03040.4811.6%647575
2008-05-07200829.17.950.223.75%7.24%90768418076406745613216147914924480.13460.259724634071484049118319710348791293611280210214767410634629207799955826095314684635600035600030082002008-03-317.94%7.43%22.06%1.3893-3.232.992.830.411.4340.82630.14191.02810.480313.1%737663
2008-02-13200818.57.55-3.49%3.49%899956899956647056470544534445340.12510.125125206631530997119685210438371228591323811551232682162628207799819441931618848335600035600027590002007-12-317.65%7.19%25.85%1.2822-3.373.122.480.531.46670.82890.18060.99660.474815.1%817675
2007-11-06200748.257.50.3N/AN/A798778286506865576220905456061528710.12810.429424719081464285119516310374201197561276745735143803512724342422023068373440320779935600035600027590002007-09-308.60%8.21%26.11%1.159118.04793.252.992.590.581.41150.74750.20031.0330.483514.9%957295
2007-08-02200737.857.6-N/AN/A815931206629048437155329329831072650.09260.30132277877131894110648579349451105151213020658353236282141922422022577934360119860135600035600025988002007-06-306.24%5.94%25.96%0.9071-3.12.872.540.561.41070.87320.21240.96590.467518.6%96109117
2007-05-0320072N/AN/A0.12N/AN/A71729712503595218510689236255742820.10180.2087219235612603929649348650561062521227422181002620302168102422022801306332017888235600035600026166002007-03-317.50%7.28%23.65%0.5703-3.152.932.510.51.4570.92330.20680.86060.440131.6%-181N/A
2007-02-0820071N/AN/A-N/AN/A533062533062550665506638386383860.10780.1078175172310366604804083929901219381271315140901118198442422022909693523526735600035600026878002006-12-3110.26%10.33%24.14%0.3043-3.233.232.340.662.63791.72710.59870.4180.2742120.7%-304N/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Properties held for development (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Property development costs (A-1)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Other liabilities (L-0)Dividend payable (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Provision for taxation (L-1)Provisions (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
201247905013497073737622761074386227873558973707755183159047-50274--42371156945423506000254
20123641951318077174855041071235193866558974132515621996253015000048180--21801374097666966000293
20122602541321317180055041035353196587558973926125301426159015000046455--2360006020481482114325294
2012151651322686968355041014637217110558973202635847787494515000047810--200006371491340414193294
2011447051272625592955041008840290290558973146685381757456915000049426---685237959622468294
201132703126963549525504938240562985558973247005277404636015000054806125481-1500006571311555528341294
201122718124985556075470877508512370558973395745539864614515000054317--1500006380232458442767294
2011147371248645464854708617508468011018334907462859819796415000057255394282-1500007395982274842767294
201044264125176-421718161549393351018334371752803515988515000057095--1500007557301651842767294
201037792130200-4134680519021380469209430406452436118536630000053642-26757310464970404327351-107566
2010219220130128-3722211720472445151018344932963692018135235436855462--20699678306734136--
2010119921130918-3481611699802560551018342189763546517927735941356068--15921976809040122-114489
2009420993131650-3178711782101878531018348230554456717235436040258793--20336769651031427-116259
20093773292315-2373311040102517931170642306064898117037535048660419--17081674081231990-150988
20092735792812-1996810535342607121468342132860979715986235469265185--17601164682034638-148557
20091378092462-165421015902220834-49088667350115491235348668503--12778671922830214-139250
20084248093162-142051012870183643-43786061739315247635941167322--8963665617024394-135002
20083206788914--907412146451-4274427144581336397615868280--33639566376817160-131115
20082392787825--887606146846-5030007082601259437909069228--45961454978025485-129361
20081615088734--894782188483-5461196767361196598074372272--40500461171427119-122859
20074541191712--910500207799-5732985676381155508305374690--33719068293117299-119756
20073-79181--879755198601-3947656177931077826017669736--3157446131516050-110515
20072-79183--852781178882-369781619834918952663173247--3045245556884844-106252
20071----715063235267-273699443471842231191775501--144673733525171-121938

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDiscontinued operationGain recognised on divestment of glass container businessAdjustment on business provision
20124868363908437868031323910421989---
201238966962869334884081716181347---
20122730429493612453673623-12262117---
20121743298117941971689833-1380666---
2011499546278282681930116-2497977--7896
20113882475141463642796376-314391--6488
201121009468295923050849201-3404959---
201111028026289602054895937-6009----
2010499025121825219089149505539-0382036-
201038927721792216858013722474512-4773--
20102872095191881596770931296435-4713--
20101992159243844109885482936489----
20094908304162723198392134833771----
200938341802144531217562863957376-9370--
2009293853718036520085776453321076----
2009194038818519500286264643681098----
200848989771451246408435861804306----
200838845871382247438242792976889----
200829076841487853208355834664675----
200818999561672948868311063442741----
200747987781712137187300652849581----
200738159311257231477649932882646----
2007271729712343264666348435871018----
20071533062132925234783963388923----

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtSoft drinksDairy productsProperty/OthersGlass containersDairies MalaysiaDairies Thailand
20124364643-63-260082243575
20123344549-15-255744296388
20122345646-253-261695122835
20121373083-154-262212107849
20114511017-352-240212243881
20113396189-682-235289250315
20112459251-60501-262411227305
20111476508-307-297663253548
2010442503950613459078---
201033985834875616628---
20102384523488254682131082--
201013809714933418296109551--
2009433130244791617271111817--
2009331544150042318316107161--
200923229124922407939115446--
2009134021345774719443122985--
200842888075039981374126919--
200832674505009397711108487--
200823273834657991472999773--
200813020374870081120899703--
200742479694286673350488638--
20073249728477327420184675--
20072286710337651990483032--
200712708411593711741185439--

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtSoft drinksDairy productsProperty/OthersGlass containersDairies MalaysiaDairies Thailand
2012429506-889-1164214872
2012316222-4489-940915884
2012225612-54071-722818423
2012141173-219-492011581
2011463220-4830-46627366
2011352737-708-1315920911
2011269317-56109-1541219429
2011188364-2668-2000021057
20104426673229923790---
2010345955423123133---
20102518994737918868362--
20101536884061036768703--
2009417168433745178032--
20093322923922863748428--
20092440593619148439--
200914316421644235410580--
20084216072368014068698--
20083241632905011428237--
20082420291532148949857--
20081352102045146138576--
200742117824356154897690--
200732377517407759681--
2007231780875539398980--
2007132312971553777262--

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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