Sponsor by Innity

Sponsor by cwyeoh

Sponsor by Nuffnang

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

KLCI Stock - NESTLE / 4707 - 2012 Quarter 3

NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD


Company Description
NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD is an investment holding company. The Company, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the manufacture, marketing and sale of food products in Malaysia. The Company offers brand names, such as MILO, NESCAFE, MAGGI, NESPRAY and KIT KAT. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company launched MILO GOLD chocolate malt drink; the NESCAFÉ BODY PARTNER range with Kacip Fatimah and Collagen and Soya variants; NESCAFÉ 3in1 GOLD coffee mix containing freeze dried coffee; the MAGGI TASTYLITE range of low fat noodles; MILO Wafer; LACTOGEN infant formula with the addition of PREBIO1 galacto-oligosaccharide(GOS) and fructo-oligosaccharide (FOS) fibres; LACTOGEN 3 formulated milk powder for children, and LACTOGEN infant formula Bag-in-Box (BIB) 700 grams. In 2008, it re-launched the Nestlé branded range of Take-Home Tubs with Hi Calcium.

Company Info
Listing Date1989-12-13
Market Capital (Capital Size)15,219,050,000 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorConsumer Products
Major IndustryFood & Beverages
Sub IndustryNutrition
Websitehttp://www.nestle.com.my/

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(64.6-1.9)/2.4174 = 25.94 (Moderate)
Target Price72.52+1.9 = 74.42 (PE 30.0, EPS 2.4174, DPS 1.9)
DecisionBUY if stock price move uptrend above SMA200 or wait rebound at lower price
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.6% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.7%, eps increased 5.7% and also higher than preceding year correspnding quarter 19.7%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, gross margin maintain very high, liquidity ratio indicate Group can meet current obligation with short turnover period, gearing ratio indicate high leverage to generate more income, all accounting of turnover period is good, all segment business growth
First Support Price64.0
Second Support Price60.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
BIMB Target Price68.2 (2012-11-02)
Kenanga Target Price72.1 (2012-11-02)
OSK Target Price61.38 (2012-11-02)
CIMB Target Price65.36 (2012-11-06)
MIDF Target Price59.52 (2012-11-06)
TA Target Price60.84 (2012-11-06)
Maybank Target Price58.6 (2012-11-07)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity76.38%
Dividend Yield2.93%
Gross Profit Margin33.64%
Operating Profit Margin15.62%
Net Profit Margin15.22%
Tax Rate26.83%
Asset Turnover2.3446
Net Asset Value Per Share3.36
Net Tangible Asset per share3.1
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share22.42
Cash Per Share0.47
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1427
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.694
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1285
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.5136
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6022
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale2.6%
Days to sell the inventory46
Days to collect the receivables38
Days to pay the payables93

Technical Analysis
SMA 1067.324 (Downtrend)
SMA 2067.003 (Uptrend 25 days)
SMA 5064.196 (Uptrend)
SMA 10061.651 (Uptrend)
SMA 20057.762 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.497854 ( 0.186683 )
Signal (9)1.083316 ( 0.146365 )
MACD Histogram0.585462 (Bearish trend 5 days)
Bolinger Upper Band73.161
Bolinger Lower Band60.845

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 largely the result of the higher domestic sales particularly noted in the fast growing categories within the Group's portfolio namely, Confectionery, Liquid Drinks, Chilled Dairy and Ice Cream

- Higher pbt than FY12Q2 due to lower operating expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = (405873+87066)*1.15/234500 = 2.4174, estimate PE on current price 64.6 = 25.94(DPS 1.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 640860*0.78/234500 = 2.1316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.04/27.3 (DPS 1.9)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 640860*0.75/234500 = 2.0497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.3/24.25 (DPS 1.8)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 640860*0.64/234500 = 1.749, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.56/30.3 (DPS 1.8)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4691*4 = 1.8764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.63/24.98 (DPS 1.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 1.7283*1.2 = 2.074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.44/21.82 (DPS 1.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1.6691*0.8 = 1.3353, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.21/31.94 (DPS 1.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4827*4 = 1.9308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.05/20.99 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4271*4*1.1 = 1.8792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.15/20.22 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.56+0.1491+0.0357 = 1.7448(0.1491 from adjustment between 2009 Q1 eps and 2010 Q1 eps, 0.0357 from QbQ improvement adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.21/18.52 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.56(around 4% from 1.5002), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.12/20.54 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.06/21.12 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.65/21.78 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.42/17.82 (DPS 1.3)

NESTLE latest news (English)

NESTLE Latest news (Chinese)

Cocoa price chart

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-11-0120123N/AN/A-19.50%62.18%114299434566441739705248041272994058730.54291.730819814119819011193136859297-788275579192742024470195246150499057971110432234500234500162977502012-09-3033.64%15.62%15.22%26.83%2.3446-3.363.122.420.471.14270.6940.12851.51360.60222.6%463893
2012-08-302012270.260.10.5518.46%42.68%114952223136501440083508351204952785750.51381.188019592729800751299736973409-65953639985831937340135524613679212778680247234500234500150126902012-06-3033.75%12.96%12.53%16.33%2.3293-2.812.5525.110.341.00680.54250.08241.97070.66340.1%543695
2012-04-252012165.9651.5-24.22%24.22%116412811641282068272068271580801580800.67410.674119548899733621118045786476-83684475966112738475552461646932006232399234500234500130991702012-03-3133.14%18.27%17.77%23.57%2.2785-3.573.3116.880.141.23760.65240.04121.3360.57194.2%563983
2012-02-232011457.054.81.2514.20%74.40%11889614700994101847558809870664563010.37131.9458201130110150641358582914740-65271958184490683461013223134911613014852461234500234500130851002011-12-3133.62%9.10%8.57%14.51%2.169228.67652.782.5222.140.221.10970.54390.05742.08140.67552.3%6437109
2011-11-042011357.3448.62-17.33%57.37%106104231739161380804569621063213518600.45341.500518942959306801207313764046-68698243099645897339855223133850994524467557234500234500117250002011-09-3030.27%13.49%13.01%23.00%2.1844-2.932.6718.730.291.21810.61370.08841.75740.63734.0%603596
2011-08-182011250.546.90.5516.04%40.03%10401142112874127774318881983862455380.41961.047118407358736461235775785417-60496037531924063323797223133512562745949772234500234500112325502011-06-3032.61%12.71%12.28%23.00%2.2099-2.582.3220.650.211.11230.59760.06342.04270.67132.2%5438100
2011-05-202011148.246.48-23.99%23.99%107276010727601911071911071471521471520.62750.627517795448040871011063725583-7684812412356669223877223132345661068933002234500234500112513102011-03-3133.75%18.26%17.81%23.00%2.2919-3.283.0215.890.141.10820.62750.04551.31570.56821.9%473894
2011-02-242010450.044.31.156.92%69.01%963893402631945004465744392593913980.16741.669117786817838691165345720915-61333650892614038836637220147368538216622313234500234500106228502010-12-3134.00%5.17%4.67%12.77%2.263727.14082.622.3619.190.211.08730.55950.06751.90.65521.6%523285
2010-10-282010346.042.02-19.96%62.09%99107630624261326524207401131873521390.48271.501717598878240291071185623979-68870238979458071301359201473317233036450511234500234500102242002010-09-3033.06%13.91%13.38%14.67%2.2803-2.942.6816.270.221.32060.7080.08091.55540.60875.0%533582
2010-08-262010245.039.50.517.66%42.13%105086320713501174702880881001532389520.42711.019018321008906481253685812088-578415216596338201743372014718277684392858623450023450092580602010-06-3032.98%11.82%11.18%14.74%2.1335-2.472.2117.860.121.09670.54180.03522.16740.68432.0%643892
2010-04-212010142.033.82-24.47%24.47%102048710204871706171706171387981387980.59190.591918022578661231092056643044-71020137927721020746201473071799713011823450023450082497102010-03-3133.54%17.21%16.72%18.65%2.0978-3.032.7712.70.131.34690.73030.04681.53770.60595.9%594286
2010-02-252009436.033.541.016.72%68.21%950632374423399175440261862243517930.36771.500217127177576711145538698779-5671796355172562713847892569037924655432014723450023450079495502009-12-3136.32%11.00%10.43%13.06%2.186122.59722.422.1615.690.111.08430.57710.03692.01970.66881.6%533692
2009-10-292009334.8232.2-15.46%51.49%8868122793601106411341086797602655690.34011.132516201247409341022488571860-59763640870616271523074525690245991152464093623450023450077854002009-09-3034.21%12.55%12.00%25.05%2.3247-2.552.2914.50.171.29570.66650.07161.71090.63114.5%523271
2009-08-272009235.6832.960.516.57%36.03%9228571906789104271234675854551858090.36440.7924172235188200912078621078262-5144892451891044731307532569014071699633565323450023450079261002009-06-3034.52%11.81%11.30%18.05%2.2302-2.191.9317.510.150.8180.39860.03312.34770.7013-5.1%6437126
2009-04-152009134.028.5-19.46%19.46%9839329839321304041304041003541003540.42790.427916649238503161048169923648-616754159935541529448925690105783112943698423450023450068591252009-03-3131.94%13.85%13.25%23.04%2.3625-2.632.3712.340.160.92060.46240.041.69950.6296-1.9%5736119
2009-02-262008429.7527.750.812.13%53.49%9726483877068104798441353772793408870.32951.4537166040188188211446461030457-5157555790631856963993473167039336759802569023450023450064487502008-12-3131.03%11.56%10.77%26.26%2.33518.91762.21.9414.180.110.85580.40990.02492.21940.6894-3.8%6337123
2008-10-302008328.2526.25-13.74%41.37%9618222904420113063336555875422636080.37331.1241170907298648412606001177158-44847237082810871924610331670262109160064767623450023450065073752008-09-3032.40%12.56%11.76%22.57%2.2007-1.911.6516.820.20.8380.41220.04052.81090.7376-5.1%7042129
2008-08-072008228.2526.00.512.82%27.63%1014910194259898733223491817201760650.34850.75081837309114594113511571256125-486152168433619626411531670106471423567402623450023450063315002008-06-3029.81%10.15%9.73%17.23%1.9924-2.071.8114.920.320.91230.52430.05892.77930.7354-3.0%7158126
2008-04-232008132.026.00.611914.80%14.80%92768892768812475812475894345943450.40230.4023175777610935451028327935668-729449385101872090443167019790288346050423450023450070350002008-03-3131.02%13.83%13.45%24.38%1.9907-3.112.8510.530.261.16870.61440.06471.40970.5854.5%8054103
2008-02-282007430.025.51.0656.05%52.23%856696341602852517395298338402920420.14431.24541603150939353965891869761-63725929065710072121409455828189936241583167023450023450061556252007-12-3127.92%6.56%6.13%35.56%2.130821.07792.722.4610.670.141.080.56650.03641.51570.60252.0%714988
2007-10-252007332.024.2-20.74%46.18%86144225593321535653427811159662582020.49451.10111575788949111989563873565-586225247736613181955985582818641891804664823450023450056983502007-09-3038.50%18.29%17.83%24.48%2.1241-2.52.2310.90.21.08650.67620.05341.6880.6282.3%6059109
2007-08-0920072N/AN/A0.27412.95%25.44%853440169789095591189216724091422360.30880.60661499209884227981065764460-5181441421883060412930455828111584177203810823450023450056514502007-06-3032.88%11.64%11.20%24.25%1.658-2.211.9412.420.171.15670.70760.05321.89340.65444.8%7673139
2007-04-2520071N/AN/A0.205512.49%12.49%844450844450936259362569827698270.29780.29781457290845599824746611248-63254433493985030008558282364363654946323450023450057218002007-03-3132.43%11.40%11.09%25.42%1.1201-2.72.4210.080.211.38340.89640.08091.30390.565914.4%100111184
2007-02-2720064N/AN/A0.849726N/AN/A787795327554172784363285514732642190.21951.12671458714816133899608682565-5591063580577629425981433879281763219495582823450023450058156002006-12-3134.51%9.55%9.24%29.28%0.540122.01052.382.111.810.241.19570.71120.08181.6090.616717.0%234199419

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Employee benefits (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Payables and accruals (L-1)
2012320702610243032889892248601104324283855754854668025838337215244684634146786688
20122210916102429528717482238280247110452045447673714003920221572567449103649802311
2012118506610242975876343226793239926346026948043174746401072167165698946204683283
201141846061024321088974123802524611765175734448546381542316337711321964223878321
20113725761024342486834423566675571514617524012207263140374330262294512561732034
201128431610243194870956234844977219140424241944179523408533299822770612556745155
20111883361024325587902623319330022233487694220938004239740165698235932582699408
2010410441610243189897505226534868334438053935430375595425373262981039087256623269
201033922610243218843803238915051172093822313840787279648411325999254682878595633
20102623661024321784448126494285867118450624404320664344841132675242801123956645331
2010162036102435448421452321830118336239648743615672865484113277362459935526582919
2009473796102434678602532292325751711835438137042170309484113280392009356458622228
2009327076102434647862312576440936528435976633494875347546983205831400564179493676
200922633610243176749131243783565346924522663893987305154698185116036163639898587
20091397461024311471967626819369845468423267384597675305469822932299117590883067
200843980610243242686459238142569052204594893914835680154698269020136105953904368
2008350656102436276288762399647676-5012094375993916540321395619248234712923198
2008241036102436395998582274474026-4874175844985065740321405413665380686861774
2008134626102435445741852201660504-5186715143704789940321443922667243867669134
2007426316128036005740922219431670-4466024610815063040321517916871302703550187
200735672622163553555236-46648-3584055440584604464277567727866193711651988
200726020631523596542214-40659-343287500281461036427710622516209118455629796
200715608647473501537835-49463-29769549844146075642771031462168940812548747
2006467096634234175466991941455828-33067442963145558642771072082319366758592614

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsAdministrative/Operating expensesFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associates
20123114299446671758524495620590227880
20122114952223513761604521923892725923
20121116412848747778303574117309674235
2011411889611478178925264952915449186
201131061042317597398355479178044166230
20112104011429388700909450320696910261
20111107276043955710753497316614415166
20104963893574563613348262779181527
20103991076194656634185191189827111
2010210508631731770429865362224036162
201011020487318196781785116166654375
200949506321295160536654702407424117
200938868122665158342151861921083311
200929228571881660430947382095941045
2009198393230050669643572917806118113
200849726482751967080373801894161252
200839618222552165020365190818779112
2008210149101701371239043821995323295
200819276883041363992235381594554156
2007485669618677617499394018299375178
200738614423759952979140141740643543
2007285344023182572807398818131016195
2007184445023798570622290017755917284
20064787795213115159072882196656259175

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersFood & Beverages
20123201854941140
20122196765952757
20121222089942039
20114189327999634
20113178196882846
20112182032858082
20111210286862474
20104157099806794
20103166333824743
20102170840880023
20101184403836084
20094151488799144
20093161211725601
20092162117760740
20091185476798456

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersFood & Beverages
2012333042145525
2012229076119810
2012138303174531
201142521093145
2011318799124365
201122479898891
2011139465164945
201041209864117
2010328056104596
201022206595406
2010141246129371
200942989898309
200932410282309
200922679577476
200913811392291

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

No comments:

Post a Comment