KLCI Stock - ANNJOO / 6556 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	872,922,657 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.67-0.055)/0.1268 = 12.74 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.78+0.055 = 1.83 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1268, DPS 0.055)
Decision	BUY if stock price can strong sustain above SMA20 or wait got strong rebound at lower price
Comment	Revenue increased 22.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.9%, eps decreased 82.6 and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 94.4%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover financing expenses and still got borrowings to cover investing expenses, weakening liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, higher debt ratio at historical high, all accounting collection/repayment period is good, inventory still high can indicate steel demand still good
First Support Price	1.6
Second Support Price	1.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

HLG Target Price	1.34 (2012-02-29)
MIDF Target Price	1.78 (2012-02-29)
Maybank Target Price	2.2 (2012-05-09)
CIMB Target Price	2.47 (2012-06-01)
Kenanga Target Price	1.62 (2012-06-01)
OSK Target Price	1.6 (2012-06-01)
AMMB Target Price	2.43 (2012-06-04)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	3.07%
Dividend Yield	3.29%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	0.52%
Net Profit Margin	-0.17%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.8063
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.4
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.39
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.2
Cash Per Share	0.12
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.3089
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.3295
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.0756
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.6532
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6222
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	16.9%
Days to sell the inventory	199
Days to collect the receivables	49
Days to pay the payables	30

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.685 (Downtrend 38 days)
SMA 50	1.843 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.906 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.939 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.043985 ( 0.002248 )
Signal (9)	-0.054907 ( 0.002731 )
MACD Histogram	0.010922 (Bullish trend 6 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	1.889
Bolinger Lower Band	1.481

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to higher sales of tonnage contributed from both Manufacturing and Trading Divisions and loss mainly attributable to continued absorption of initial start-up cost pending the stabilization and optimization of the blast furnace operations and an allowance for inventories written down to net realizable value of RM5.61 mil

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1074190*0.09/762504 = 0.1268, estimate PE on current price 1.67 = 12.74(DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1075033*0.06/763411 = 0.0845, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.44/18.88 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (37880+22520-29476)*0.83/763444*4*0.9 = 0.121, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.18/12.73 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0477*4*0.8 = 0.1526, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.56/11.25 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.04+0.0602)*2 = 0.2004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/10.96 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/16.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0517*4 = 0.2068(0.0517 is average eps of Q110,Q409,Q308, due to steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.91/11.9 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/9.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.048*4 = 0.192, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.68/13.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0682*4 = 0.2728, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/8.69 (DPS 0.03)

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