KLCI Stock - MAHSING / 8583 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,683,868,887 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(2.02-0.076)/0.2863 = 6.79 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.86+0.076 = 2.94 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.2863, DPS 0.076)
Decision	BUY if macd back to uptrend
Comment	Revenue increased 8.4% and was sixth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 46.8%), eps increased 48.8% snd also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 46.4%, cash generated from operating after deduct receivables increase not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 13.1% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, maintained very high margin, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio at historical high now, all accounting ratio improved but inventory still at very high level, higher property development cost can indicate property business still good prospect, property division continue growth
First Support Price	1.95
Second Support Price	1.85
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	2.23 (2012-03-01)
CIMB Target Price	2.51 (2012-05-29)
HLG Target Price	2.37 (2012-05-29)
Kenanga Target Price	2 (2012-05-29)
Maybank Target Price	1.83 (2012-05-29)
OSK Target Price	2.69 (2012-05-29)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	19.11%
Dividend Yield	3.76%
Gross Profit Margin	28.91%
Operating Profit Margin	18.22%
Net Profit Margin	18.39%
Tax Rate	28.75%
Asset Turnover	0.5634
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.35
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.33
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.49
Cash Per Share	0.69
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.9576
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1901
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6169
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.6682
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6221
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	107.4%
Days to sell the inventory	489
Days to collect the receivables	113
Days to pay the payables	256

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.958 (Uptrend 7 days)
SMA 50	2.001 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	2.057 (Same)
SMA 200	2.008 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.00034 ( 0.004157 )
Signal (9)	-0.013323 ( 0.003416 )
MACD Histogram	0.013663 (Bullish trend 8 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	2.052
Bolinger Lower Band	1.864

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s remaining undeveloped land was 1,531 acres and approximately RM18.2 billion in GDV and unbilled sales

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1151402*0.21/844481 = 0.2863, estimate PE on current price 2.02 = 6.79(DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1088489*0.18/853767 = 0.2295, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.69/7.73 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0499*4*0.95 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.2/8.41 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4 = 0.2016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.12/7.01 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0485*4 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/10.64 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0376*4*1.1 = 0.1654, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.05/13.2 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4*1.1 = 0.1571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/10.85 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0355*4*1.1 = 0.1562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/10.47 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034*4*1.1 = 0.1496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.13/9.99 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.6/10.53 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)

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