KLCI Stock - GENM / 4715 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	21,059,557,250 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.54-0.086)/0.2449 = 14.1 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.67+0.086 = 3.76 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.2449, DPS 0.086)
Decision	BUY when stock price sustain above SMA20 or wait MACD bullish cross
Comment	Revenue decreased 18.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.4%, eps decreased 22.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 35.1%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence increased borrowings to cover all other expenses, gross margin increasing, stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, 21.8% lower of debt ratio from recent high, all repayment period is good, Leisure & Hospitality business in Malaysia was weakening
First Support Price	3.5
Second Support Price	3.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Maybank Target Price	4 (2012-04-17)
RHB Target Price	4.2 (2012-04-27)
Jupiter Target Price	3.93 (2012-05-21)
HLG Target Price	4.1 (2012-05-31)
HwangDBS Target Price	4.1 (2012-05-31)
Kenanga Target Price	4.18 (2012-05-31)
AMMB Target Price	4.3 (2012-06-04)
CIMB Target Price	4 (2012-06-04)
OSK Target Price	4.21 (2012-06-05)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	10.97%
Dividend Yield	2.42%
Gross Profit Margin	29.92%
Operating Profit Margin	20.46%
Net Profit Margin	19.88%
Tax Rate	28.50%
Asset Turnover	0.5219
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.23
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.47
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.61
Cash Per Share	0.44
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8212
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.7742
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.5319
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2825
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2203
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	15.8%
Days to sell the inventory	5
Days to collect the receivables	16
Days to pay the payables	81

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	3.612 (Downtrend 23 days)
SMA 50	3.737 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	3.814 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	3.726 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.048356 ( 0.001458 )
Signal (9)	-0.043424 ( 0.001233 )
MACD Histogram	0.004932 (Bearish trend 4 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	3.892
Bolinger Lower Band	3.332

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly attributable to:-
1. Completion of the development of Resorts World Casino New York City (“RWNYC”) resulting in no further construction revenue being recognised from its development in the 1Q 2012. Construction revenue recorded in the 1Q 2011 was RM264.6 million
2. Construction loss of RM48.2 million incurred due to cost overrun from the development of RWNYC. Construction profit recorded in 1Q 2011 was RM13.4 million
3. Lower revenue from leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia mainly due to the weaker hold percentage in the premium players business despite an overall higher volume of business and higher payroll costs and promotional expenses
4. Lower revenue from leisure and hospitality business in the UK due to lower revenue and bad debts written off
5. Pre-operating expenses of RM17.7 million incurred in relation to the masterplan development of a destination resort in the City of Miami, Florida, US

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 12620517*0.11/5667574 = 0.2449, estimate PE on current price 3.54 = 14.1(DPS 0.086)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 11926797*0.12/5669441 = 0.2524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.31/13.57 (DPS 0.086)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0613*4*1.1 = 0.2697, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.97/13.64 (DPS 0.082)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.0736+0.0617)*2*0.95 = 0.2571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.89/11.39 (DPS 0.082)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0736*4 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.08/11.18 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2241*1.1 = 0.2465, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.26/12.74 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/13.16 (DPS 0.079)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2315*1.05 = 0.2431, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.98/11.85 (DPS 0.079)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2315*1.05 = 0.2431, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/9.82 (DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0628*4 = 0.2512, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.25/9.7 (DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0629*4 = 0.2516, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.45/10.33 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.35/11.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0481*4 = 0.1924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/12.79 (DPS 0.07)

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