Company Info
| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 1,347,760,092 (Large) |
| Par Value | RM 0.50 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (1.03-0.015)/0.0323 = 31.42 (High) |
| Target Price | 0.45+0.015 = 0.47 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.0323, DPS 0.015) |
| Decision | Not interested unless revenue and profit surge or from technical analysis stock price very strong stay above SMA20 |
| Comment | Revenue increased 4.7% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 67.9%, eps decreased 26.8% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.2%, cash generated from operating not enough for financing expenses but got enough cash generated from financing activities to cover all expenses, gross margin decreasing, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, lower gearing ratio at medium level now, lower debt ratio and is getting far from historical high, payables repayment period improving, affecting by decreasing of CPO price, benefit from acquired additional 12% land area |
| First Support Price | 1.0 |
| Second Support Price | 0.915 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| Jupiter Target Price | 1.03 (2012-05-16) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 64.83% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.46% |
| Gross Profit Margin | 19.23% |
| Operating Profit Margin | 13.61% |
| Net Profit Margin | 8.74% |
| Tax Rate | 22.63% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.2303 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 0.44 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 0.4 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 2.6 |
| Cash Per Share | 0.06 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 0.8487 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 0.7226 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.5741 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.6551 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.3751 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | -9.1% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 41 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 30 |
| Days to pay the payables | 150 |
Technical Analysis
| SMA 20 | 1.029 (Uptrend 3 days) |
| SMA 50 | 1.058 (Same) |
| SMA 100 | 1.066 (Uptrend) |
| SMA 200 | 0.85 (Uptrend) |
| MACD (26d/12d) | -0.009135 ( 0.001163 ) |
| Signal (9) | -0.009797 ( 0.000166 ) |
| MACD Histogram | 0.000662 (Bullish trend 1 day) |
| Bolinger Upper Band | 1.072 |
| Bolinger Lower Band | 0.986 |
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly due to the decrease in average selling price of crude palm oil (“CPO”) and palm kernel (“PK”), which was partially offset by the increase in sales volume for CPO and PK and increased manuring costs of RM7.48 million and higher depreciation/ amortisation of RM2.44 million and increased harvesting and transportation costs of RM0.82 million, due to higher FFB production
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 65975/2041722 = 0.0323, estimate PE on current price 1.03 = 31.42(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 65975*1.1/2041722 = 0.0355, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.25/27.46 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 17855/1308505*4*1.1 = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.08/16.25 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.113/4*2*1.1 = 0.0622, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.4/7.15 (DPS 0.02)
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