KLCI Stock - NAIM / 5073 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	425,000,000 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.7-0.06)/0.2094 = 7.83 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.30+0.06 = 2.36 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.2094, DPS 0.06)
Decision	BUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above 1.65 or wait at lower price
Comment	Revenue increased 3.6% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 22.1%, eps increased 204.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.6%, cash generated from investing enough to cover all expenses, gross margin surged, slightly weaker liquidity ratio but still at strong level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, higher debt ratio and almost historical high, inventory and receivables repayment period getting longer and this can cause increase more borrowing, no significant increase in property development cost can indicate no new property development project, higher inventory can indicate more properties held to sale or more construction material allocate, property development segment growth but construction segment getting poor to secure new project
First Support Price	1.65
Second Support Price	1.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	3 (2012-03-01)
AMMB Target Price	2.88 (2012-05-28)
Kenanga Target Price	2.94 (2012-05-28)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	6.80%
Dividend Yield	3.53%
Gross Profit Margin	23.84%
Operating Profit Margin	12.62%
Net Profit Margin	24.41%
Tax Rate	26.65%
Asset Turnover	0.2903
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.18
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.14
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.55
Cash Per Share	0.97
Liquidity Current Ratio	5.2122
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.6339
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.5063
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.7293
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4164
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	167.7%
Days to sell the inventory	275
Days to collect the receivables	290
Days to pay the payables	167

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.811 (Downtrend 19 days)
SMA 50	1.91 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.948 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.854 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.065001 ( 9.7e-005 )
Signal (9)	-0.064012 ( 0.000247 )
MACD Histogram	0.000989 (Bearish trend 15 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	2.086
Bolinger Lower Band	1.536

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt mainly due to the following:
* Improvement in margin for construction segment, especially from the substantially completed projects
* Improvement in performance of associates and joint ventures
* Decrease in administrative expense

- Higher revenue from Property segment mainly contributed by the higher units of properties sold from existing properties under construction

- Other segment recorded lower revenue and higher loss mainly attributable to the quarry and premix operations in Malaysia and Fiji which reported lower sales and were running below capacity owing to reduced construction activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 763498*0.065/236944 = 0.2094, estimate PE on current price 1.7 = 7.83(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 763498*0.06/236944 = 0.1933, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.69/8.33 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0433*4 = 0.1732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.34/8.43 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0516+0.043)*2 = 0.1892(exclude RM10 million disposal gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/7.93 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4023*0.85 = 0.342(0.4023 from recent fourth quarter eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.19/5.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0921*4*0.9 = 0.3316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.77/8.84 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2587*2*0.9 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.16/6.79 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1619*2*1.1 = 0.3562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.47/8.84 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2988 (10% drop from 0.332, due to profit decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.28/8.57 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0793*4 = 0.3172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.41/8.89 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0902*4 = 0.3608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.87/6.59 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0955*4 = 0.382, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.73 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4 = 0.2672, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.18/6.4 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1118*4 = 0.4472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.07/2.17 (DPS 0.13)

NAIM latest news (English)

NAIM latest news (Chinese)