KLCI Stock - BJTOTO / 1562 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	5,958,042,617 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.41-0.25)/0.3106 = 13.39 (Moderate)
Target Price	4.66+0.25 = 4.91 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.3106, DPS 0.25)
Decision	BUY if stock price below SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2%, eps increased 14.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 62.2%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	4.3
Second Support Price	4.0
Risk Rating	LOW

Research House

AMMB Target Price	4.7 (2011-06-21)
CIMB Target Price	4.75 (2011-06-21)
HwangDBS Target Price	4.25 (2011-06-21)
RHB Target Price	5.15 (2011-06-21)
TA Target Price	4.92 (2011-06-21)
ECM Target Price	5.2 (2011-09-22)
OSK Target Price	4.72 (2011-09-29)
Maybank Target Price	4.85 (2011-12-13)
HLG Target Price	4.92 (2012-01-12)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	84.23%
Dividend Yield	5.67%
Profit Margin	17.25%
Tax Rate	27.84%
Asset Turnover	2.323
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.38
Net Tangible Asset per share	-0.1
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	-41.0
Cash Per Share	0.35
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.4826
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4552
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.1962
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.8623
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6386
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	5.5%
Days to sell the inventory	1
Days to collect the receivables	11
Days to pay the payables	46

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	4.417 (Uptrend 36 days)
SMA 50	4.263 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	4.195 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	4.157 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.077664 (Downtrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram	0.003926 (Uptrend 33 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q2 mainly attributed to the results of Sports Toto and Berjaya Philippines Inc. group

- Higher revenue than FY12Q1 mainly attributed to the results of Sports Toto despite lower revenue from Berjaya Philippines Inc. group

- Higher pbt mainly attributed to higher revenue in current quarter and higher prize payout from Sports Toto in the corresponding period despite marginal drop in pre-tax profit of Berjaya Philippines Inc. group

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = (0.0689+0.079)*2*1.05 = 0.3106, estimate PE on current price 4.41 = 13.39(DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0689+0.0779)*2 = 0.2936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.2/13.15 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0779*4 = 0.3116, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/12.2 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0859+0.0487)*2*1.05 = 0.2827, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.53/13.76 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0487*4*1.05 = 0.2045, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.27/18.97 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2889*0.8 = 0.2311, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.83/17.05 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2889*0.9 = 0.26(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.58 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.09/13.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)

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