KLCI Stock - SCIENTX / 4731 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	611,800,000 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(2.66-0.12)/0.3836 = 6.62 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.69+0.12 = 2.81 (PE 7.0, EPS 0.3836, DPS 0.12)
Decision	BUY if stock price around SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 4.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.5%, eps decreased 0.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.5%, cash generated from operating and financing more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio from below moderate to moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory can indicate sales slow down in Manufacturing division, lower property development cost also can indicate no new property development project
First Support Price	2.5
Second Support Price	2.25
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

TA Target Price

2.9 (2011-12-28)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	16.14%
Dividend Yield	4.51%
Profit Margin	12.30%
Tax Rate	18.62%
Asset Turnover	1.0649
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.27
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.27
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.11
Cash Per Share	0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.4646
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.9238
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3561
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.515
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3227
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	12.1%
Days to sell the inventory	59
Days to collect the receivables	54
Days to pay the payables	66

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	2.543 (Uptrend 25 days)
SMA 50	2.462 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	2.313 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	2.362 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.075977 (Uptrend 9 days)
MACD Histogram	0.016269 (Uptrend 78 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to growth from all division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0959*4 = 0.3836, estimate PE on current price 2.66 = 6.62(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0948*4*0.95 = 0.3602, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.69/5.55 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4*1.05 = 0.3982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.76/4.9 (DPS 0.05)

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