KLCI Stock - GAMUDA / 5398 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	7,966,816,611 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.85-0.12)/0.2422 = 15.40 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.88+0.12 = 4.00 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2422, DPS 0.12)
Decision	BUY if stock price near to SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue decreased 20.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.2%, eps increased 7% and was seventh consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 49.8%), no cash generated from operating after changes in working capital but cash generated from investment and financing still enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, higher property development cost can indicate got new property project
First Support Price	3.7
Second Support Price	3.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Kenanga Target Price	4.12 (2011-03-25)
AMMB Target Price	3.82 (2011-06-14)
UOB Target Price	4.4 (2011-06-20)
CIMB Target Price	5.63 (2011-06-24)
TA Target Price	4.32 (2011-06-24)
RHB Target Price	3.02 (2011-12-19)
MIDF Target Price	4.4 (2012-01-13)
ECM Target Price	3.51 (2012-02-13)
HLG Target Price	4.41 (2012-02-13)
HwangDBS Target Price	4.5 (2012-02-13)
Maybank Target Price	4.1 (2012-02-13)
OSK Target Price	4.57 (2012-02-13)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	12.02%
Dividend Yield	3.12%
Profit Margin	26.04%
Tax Rate	19.79%
Asset Turnover	0.3502
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.8
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.76
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.7
Cash Per Share	0.52
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.1187
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1067
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.5231
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.954
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4753
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	87.4%
Days to sell the inventory	338
Days to collect the receivables	162
Days to pay the payables	137

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	3.704 (Uptrend 34 days)
SMA 50	3.378 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	3.193 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	3.351 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.188214 (Uptrend 33 days)
MACD Histogram	0.040874 (Uptrend 29 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 was due to higher contributions from all divisions

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0626+0.0585)*2 = 0.2422, estimate PE on current price 3.85 = 15.4(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0542+0.0585)*2 = 0.2254, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.86/11.85 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.177*1.1 = 0.1947, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.77/12.89 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0439*4*1.05 = 0.1844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.77/18.71 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0789*2*1.05 = 0.1657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.98/20.64 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.84/20.47 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)

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