KLCI Stock - KAF / 5096 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	228,000,000 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.9-0.075)/0.1339 = 13.63 (High)
Target Price	1.61+0.075 = 1.68 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1339, DPS 0.075)
Decision	Not interested unless MACD moving back to uptrend
Comment	Revenue decreased 35.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 40.4%, eps increased 64.2% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 63.1%, not enough cash for operating activities but cash from disposal more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, lower gearing ratio from high to above moderate level now
First Support Price	1.7
Second Support Price	1.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	3.74%
Dividend Yield	7.89%
Profit Margin	59.81%
Tax Rate	20.36%
Asset Turnover	0.0815
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.91
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.89
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.85
Cash Per Share	1.68
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.2609
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.2609
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.1909
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.7386
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4245
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	657.0%
Days to sell the inventory	-
Days to collect the receivables	1959
Days to pay the payables	2333

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.841 (Uptrend 18 days)
SMA 50	1.605 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.429 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.353 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.091265 ( 0.005746 )
Signal (9)	0.104404 ( 0.003285 )
MACD Histogram	0.013139 (Bearish trend 4 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 due mainly to lower operating revenue and other income offset by higher other operating expenses

- Higher pbt than FY12Q1 due mainly to higher other income and lower operating revenue offset by lower staff expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 229485*0.07/120000 = 0.1339(ROE 7%), estimate PE on current price 1.9 = 13.63(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1584*0.8 = 0.1267, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.55/9.67 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1584*0.9 = 0.1426, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.13/7.89 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1953*0.85 = 0.166, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.58/7.74 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1819*1.05 = 0.191, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.72/6.73 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1806*1.05 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.94/6.99 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1729*0.9 = 0.1556(10% drop due to assets decreased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.03/7.49 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0443(average from recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.1772, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.93/6.35 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2262, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.26/5.11 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.8/4.97 (DPS 0.075)

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