Company Info
My Analysis
Research House
Accounting Ratio
Technical Analysis
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q1 mainly from sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia and SESB however got loss from profit as a result of the utilization of alternative fuels, namely oil and distillate and the increase in the average coal price consumed from USD95.4 to USD 110 per metric tonne
- Lower loss than FY11Q4 mainly attributed by lower utilization of alternative fuels
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 30044200*0.08/5456669 = 0.4405(ROE 8%), estimate PE on current price 6.11 = 13.77(DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.97/9.97 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)
Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/
MYR/JPY chart
TENAGA latest news (English)
TENAGA latest news (Chinese)
| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 33,342,547,986 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 1.00 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (6.11-0.045)/0.4405 = 13.77 (Moderate) |
| Target Price | 6.17+0.045 = 6.21 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.4405, DPS 0.045) |
| Decision | Not interested unless MACD moving back to bullish trend and got stronger buying volume than selling |
| Comment | Revenue decreased 4.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.5%, eps decreased 50.4% loss but was 125.3% from profit to loss compared to preceding year corresponding quarter, cash generated from operating not enough to cover all of financing expenses but got borrowings to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by high coal price, lower affect by alternative fuels, offset the effect of strengthen of JPN and USD against RM from Dec to Jan since middle of Jan due to strengthening of RM |
| First Support Price | 6.0 |
| Second Support Price | 5.4 |
| Risk Rating | HIGH |
Research House
| Citi Target Price | 7.9 (2011-05-31) |
| Kenanga Target Price | 7.93 (2011-07-18) |
| HLG Target Price | 5.1 (2011-10-31) |
| Affin Target Price | 6.7 (2011-11-10) |
| CIMB Target Price | 6.47 (2011-12-02) |
| ECM Target Price | 7.96 (2011-12-07) |
| Maybank Target Price | 6.9 (2012-01-18) |
| MIDF Target Price | 6.7 (2012-01-18) |
| OSK Target Price | 6.36 (2012-01-18) |
| RHB Target Price | 6.5 (2012-01-18) |
| ZJ Target Price | 6.4 (2012-02-02) |
| HwangDBS Target Price | 7 (2012-02-08) |
| AMMB Target Price | 6.95 (2012-02-17) |
| HLG Target Price | 6.5 (2012-02-17) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | -1.63% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.74% |
| Profit Margin | -2.48% |
| Tax Rate | - |
| Asset Turnover | 0.4138 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 5.45 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 5.45 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 1.14 |
| Cash Per Share | 1.45 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 2.1247 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 1.7937 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.9917 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 1.6773 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.6242 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 27.2% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 29 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 67 |
| Days to pay the payables | 72 |
Technical Analysis
| SMA 20 | 6.104 (Uptrend 1 day) |
| SMA 50 | 5.924 (Uptrend) |
| SMA 100 | 5.707 (Uptrend) |
| SMA 200 | 5.937 (Same) |
| MACD (26d/12d) | 0.033009 ( 0.001526 ) |
| Signal (9) | 0.05285 ( 0.00496 ) |
| MACD Histogram | 0.019841 (Bearish trend 19 days) |
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q1 mainly from sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia and SESB however got loss from profit as a result of the utilization of alternative fuels, namely oil and distillate and the increase in the average coal price consumed from USD95.4 to USD 110 per metric tonne
- Lower loss than FY11Q4 mainly attributed by lower utilization of alternative fuels
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 30044200*0.08/5456669 = 0.4405(ROE 8%), estimate PE on current price 6.11 = 13.77(DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.97/9.97 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)
Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/
MYR/JPY chart
TENAGA latest news (English)
TENAGA latest news (Chinese)
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