KLCI Stock - P&O / 6009 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	229,918,370 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(0.935-0.056)/0.238 = 3.69 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.90+0.056 = 1.96 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.238, DPS 0.056)
Decision	BUY if stock price near to SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 1.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.9%, eps decreased 9.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 28.8%, no cash generated from operating but cash generated from financing enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at strong level now, higher reinsurance assets which could turn into higher revenue, insurance division still recorded high profit
First Support Price	0.925
Second Support Price	0.88
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	23.21%
Dividend Yield	5.99%
Profit Margin	15.20%
Tax Rate	26.69%
Asset Turnover	0.5144
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.87
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.87
Cash Per Share	2.48
Liquidity Current Ratio	6.5455
Liquidity Quick Ratio	5.2492
Liquidity Cash Ratio	4.3127
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	3.8287
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.7929
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	148.1%
Days to sell the inventory	143
Days to collect the receivables	91
Days to pay the payables	27

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	0.927 (Uptrend 40 days)
SMA 50	0.845 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	0.769 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	0.733 (Same)
MACD	0.055712 (Downtrend 3 days)
MACD Histogram	0.001254 (Uptrend 69 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly attributable to higher gross premium recorded by the insurance subsidiary

- Lower pbt than FY10Q4 mainly attributable to higher net claims incurred at the insurance subsidiary

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 due mainly to impairment loss of available-for-sale financial assets of RM3,665,000, at the insurance subsidiary

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0595*4 = 0.238, estimate PE on current price 0.935 = 3.69(DPS 0.056)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0368+0.0658)*2*0.75 = 0.1539, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.96/4.12 (DPS 0.056)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0368*4*0.9 = 0.1325, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.18/5.24 (DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0277*4 = 0.1108(ROE 3.5% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/6.35 (DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4/2 = 0.1(ROE 3.5% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/7.7

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