KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	842,124,160 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.28-0.04)/0.1258 = 9.86 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.26+0.04 = 1.30 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1258, DPS 0.04)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price below SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 34.8% and was fourth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 30.4%), eps increased 49.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 47%, cash generated from operating not enough for financing expenses hence spent 8.4% of Group cash for other expenses all together, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, largely increasing inventory can target to get higher sales
First Support Price	1.2
Second Support Price	1.1
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	1.22 (2011-01-24)
OSK Target Price	1.14 (2011-02-28)
Inter Pacific Target Price	1.21 (2011-05-31)
HwangDBS Target Price	1.4 (2011-11-04)
Maybank Target Price	1.16 (2011-11-30)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	29.30%
Dividend Yield	3.12%
Profit Margin	20.63%
Tax Rate	26.66%
Asset Turnover	1.2469
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.47
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.46
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.28
Cash Per Share	0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.5823
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1422
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8617
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5501
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3549
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	39.2%
Days to sell the inventory	239
Days to collect the receivables	25
Days to pay the payables	130

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.195 (Uptrend 45 days)
SMA 50	1.118 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.026 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.03 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.067194 (Uptrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram	0.016652 (Uptrend 77 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 due mainly to the large increase in Revenues and to a relatively lower increase in operating expenses. The increase in Revenues had come from an expansion in our gross floor area under retail; in the period 01 October 2010 to 30 September 2011, 4 Brands Outlet stores and 2 Padini Concept Stores have been opened. The impact from the Brands Outlet revenues was particularly significant as sales of our own merchandise during the quarter under review rose 85.7% year-on-year. While the sales of our own products from the Brands Outlet stores made up about 11% of the total revenues of Q1 of the previous financial year, this figure had increased to more than 15% for Q1 this year however got drop in gross margins was primarily a consequence of the high cotton prices experienced since the start of the 2010 calendar year and this had the effect of driving up the costs of our merchandise. With our retail prices remaining more or less stable, our gross margins had declined

- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q4 were primarily the result of the Hari Raya Aidilfitri and Merdeka Day sales promotions and events

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1276*1.1 = 0.1404, estimate PE on current price 1.28 = 9.86(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1144*1.1 = 0.1258, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.51/6.2 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.11/6.81 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

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