KLCI Stock - MAXIS / 6012 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	42,825,000,000 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(5.71-0.32)/0.3164 = 17.04 (High)
Target Price	5.22+0.32 = 5.54 (PE 16.5, EPS 0.3164, DPS 0.32)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price below SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.3%, eps decreased 2.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.6%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but still increased borrowing to cover investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at high level now, payables ratio still high, mobile services division got higher revenue but profit keep decreasing, benefit from U Mobile deal
First Support Price	5.55
Second Support Price	5.3
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	5.49 (2011-03-01)
HwangDBS Target Price	5.1 (2011-03-01)
JF APEX Target Price	6.15 (2011-03-01)
TA Target Price	6.1 (2011-03-01)
CIMB Target Price	5.9 (2011-07-06)
OSK Target Price	5.2 (2011-10-12)
MIDF Target Price	5.5 (2011-11-18)
ECM Target Price	5.47 (2011-12-01)
HLG Target Price	5.39 (2011-12-01)
Maybank Target Price	5.4 (2011-12-01)
RHB Target Price	5.9 (2012-01-06)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	28.03%
Dividend Yield	5.60%
Profit Margin	33.24%
Tax Rate	27.88%
Asset Turnover	0.4922
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.03
Net Tangible Asset per share	-0.44
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	-12.5
Cash Per Share	0.12
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.3329
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.3092
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.1635
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.3185
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5686
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-42.2%
Days to sell the inventory	11
Days to collect the receivables	34
Days to pay the payables	222

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	5.628 (Uptrend 49 days)
SMA 50	5.503 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	5.359 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	5.279 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.098107 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram	0.009823 (Uptrend 55 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue primarily driven by increases in voice and non-voice revenues. The non-voice revenue as a percentage of total mobile services revenue increased by 1% point to 44% on higher outright sale of devices, mobile internet usage and active mobile internet users from higher take-up of smart devices and data bundling coupled with higher wireless broadband revenue from higher subscription base. The increase in voice revenue was largely due to increase in yield

- Monthly postpaid ARPU increased by RM2 on account of increase in non-voice component resulting from data bundle take-up whilst monthly prepaid ARPU increased by RM2 primarily due to higher voice and SMS yields reflecting the success of revenue improvement programs and higher mobile internet usage. Monthly wireless broadband ARPU remained stable at RM63

- Lower pbt due to higher marketing expenses and lower margins resulting from the sales of devices and higher amortisation of handset subsidies as the Group continues to provide more smart devices and data bundling in the market, write-off in property, plant and equipment of RM10 million and higher net finance costs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3164, estimate PE on current price 5.71 = 17.04(DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.3164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.53/15.3 (DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0719*4*1.1 = 0.3164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.5/15.3 (DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0813*4*1.05 = 0.3415, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.72/14.58 (DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.075*4*1.05 = 0.315, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.41/15.65 (DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0736*4*1.05 = 0.3091, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/15.92 (DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.328*0.9 = 0.2952, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.68/16.46 (DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.082*4 = 0.328, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.07/14.82 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.082*4 = 0.328, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.1/15.52 (DPS 0.24)

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