KLCI Stock - KELADI / 6769 - 2012 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	144,078,900 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(0.19-0.015)/0.0188 = 9.31 (High)
Target Price	0.17+0.015 = 0.18 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.0188, DPS 0.015)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price below SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue decreased 28.1% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 66.4%, eps increased 4.4% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 43.4%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at very low level now, inventory ratio very high and sales lower, all division revenue decreasing
First Support Price	0.18
Second Support Price	0.17
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	8.32%
Dividend Yield	7.89%
Profit Margin	76.00%
Tax Rate	24.28%
Asset Turnover	0.2075
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.25
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.25
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.74
Cash Per Share	0.1
Liquidity Current Ratio	8.7349
Liquidity Quick Ratio	6.3822
Liquidity Cash Ratio	5.6621
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.0693
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.0632
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	235.2%
Days to sell the inventory	440
Days to collect the receivables	71
Days to pay the payables	178

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	0.188 (Uptrend 7 days)
SMA 50	0.185 (Same)
SMA 100	0.178 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	0.173 (Same)
MACD	0.004348 (Downtrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram	0.001218 (Uptrend 6 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The decrease in revenue was due to more properties sold and higher progress billings recognised in previous year’s corresponding period. However, the Group managed to maintain its profit before tax compared to the preceding year’s corresponding period due to higher profit margin

- The increase in the profit before tax is mainly due to completion of our on-going phases of Taman Lagenda and reduction of administrative expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 0.0047*4 = 0.0188, estimate PE on current price 0.19 = 9.31(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.025(recent 4th qrt cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.8/5.6 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0227, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.15/6.89 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0212+0.018)/2 = 0.0196, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.44/8.16 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.017(recent 4 quarters eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.06/9.41 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*0.9 = 0.016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.19/9.06 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0178 (based on last year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.99/7.87 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0155 (13% drop from 0.0178), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10/9.03 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0218+0.0289+0.019)/3 = 0.0232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.6 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.5/10.48 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0042*4 = 0.0168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.52/7.74 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.11/8.06 (DPS 0.015)

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