KLCI Stock - IRCB / 2127 - 2012 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	100,644,454 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.20

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	0.17/0.0035 = 48.57 (High)
Target Price	0.0035*6.0 = 0.02 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.0035)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price back to bullish trend or moving from bearish to bullish trend
Comment	Revenue decreased 32.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 22%, eps reduceed 37.2% loss but largely turned into loss compared to preceding year corresponding quarter, not enough cash generated from operating hence increased bank borrowing and spent 31.6% of Group cash to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by recent surge of latex price and RM against USD
First Support Price	0.16
Second Support Price	0.14
Risk Rating	HIGH

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	-60.85%
Dividend Yield	-
Profit Margin	-21.37%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.6583
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.12
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.12
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.38
Cash Per Share	0.07
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.3936
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.9502
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6199
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.1242
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5292
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	26.0%
Days to sell the inventory	73
Days to collect the receivables	79
Days to pay the payables	28

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	0.167 (Downtrend 3 days)
SMA 50	0.168 (Same)
SMA 100	0.166 (Same)
SMA 200	0.169 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.000681 ( 5.3e-005 )
Signal (9)	0.000387 ( 7.3e-005 )
MACD Histogram	0.000294 (Bullish trend 12 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and loss mainly due to the drop in production output caused by the shortage of manpower and volatility of latex price. In addition, the stock write down of RM1.46 million which was non-recurring in nature caused further deterioration of the Group's results

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 85631*0.03/741249 = 0.0035(ROE 3%), estimate PE on current price 0.17 = 48.57
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.58/18.94
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.27/17.42
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate highest/lowest PE = 40.15/23.48
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced due to exclude other income will be a loss, if use eps from FY2010Q2 to FY2011Q1 = 0.0079, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.28/2
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0021*2*1.05 = 0.0044(exclude gain from sale of land), estimate highest/lowest PE = 118.18/51.14
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0079(remain recent last 4Q cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 102.53/48.73
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0022*4 = 0.0088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 128.41/67.61

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