KLCI Stock - JCY / 5161 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,494,729,200 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.25

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.22-0.04)/0.1281 = 9.21 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.54+0.04 = 1.58 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1281, DPS 0.04)
Decision	BUY if MACD moving back to bullish trend and got very strong buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 11.3% but still lower than preceding quarter 7.3%, eps increased 182.7% and also higher than preceding quarter 204.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence increased borrowings and spent 29.6% of Group cash to cover other expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate Group products demand improve, affect by weakening of USD against RM, benefit from improvement of average selling price
First Support Price	1.15
Second Support Price	1.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

CIMB Target Price	1.54 (2012-01-05)
OSK Target Price	1.48 (2012-01-05)
HLG Target Price	1.33 (2012-02-09)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	16.16%
Dividend Yield	1.64%
Profit Margin	29.08%
Tax Rate	0.08%
Asset Turnover	1.169
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.51
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.76
Cash Per Share	0.03
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.7476
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1498
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.1483
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4631
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3165
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	19.3%
Days to sell the inventory	62
Days to collect the receivables	93
Days to pay the payables	67

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.293 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50	1.133 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	0.812 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	0.623 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.019203 ( 0.004276 )
Signal (9)	0.039801 ( 0.005149 )
MACD Histogram	0.020598 (Bearish trend 11 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due mainly to the better Average Selling Price("ASP") as a result of shortage in HDD mechanical components after the October 2011 Thailand floods and appreciating USD exchange rate coupled with effective products mix and continuing efficient cost management during the quarter under review

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1047414*0.25/2044760 = 0.1281, estimate PE on current price 1.22 = 9.21(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0103*1.2*4 = 0.0494, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.21/14.22 (DPS 0.0075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0061*1.1*4 = 0.0268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.38/14.09 (DPS 0.0075)

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