KLCI Stock - ZHULIAN / 5131 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	855,600,000 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.86-0.12)/0.2169 = 8.02 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.95+0.12 = 2.07 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.2169, DPS 0.12)
Decision	BUY if stock price support and uptrend above 1.85
Comment	Revenue decreased 5.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.3%, eps increased 18.3% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.6%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 2.9% of Group cash for investing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from high to strong level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate higher demand of products, affecting by weakening of USD dollar against Ringgit
First Support Price	1.85
Second Support Price	1.65
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	2.5 (2011-02-09)
ZJ Target Price	2.4 (2012-01-26)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	24.29%
Dividend Yield	6.45%
Profit Margin	40.25%
Tax Rate	17.61%
Asset Turnover	0.8013
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.85
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.85
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.22
Cash Per Share	0.28
Liquidity Current Ratio	4.5495
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.5766
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.5461
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1373
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1207
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	49.8%
Days to sell the inventory	64
Days to collect the receivables	50
Days to pay the payables	60

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.894 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50	1.805 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.715 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.668 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.012482 ( 0.002225 )
Signal (9)	0.021825 ( 0.002336 )
MACD Histogram	0.009343 (Bearish trend 13 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q3 mainly due to a drop in the local market demand however got higher pbt due mainly to contributed by increase in share of profit of equity accounted investee as well as the strengthening of USD against Ringgit Malaysia

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 392351*0.24/460000 = 0.2047, estimate PE on current price 1.86 = 8.02(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0529+0.0457)*2*1.1 = 0.2169, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.25/7.05 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0457+0.0478)*2*1.05 = 0.1964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.55/7.03 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0478*4 = 0.1912, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.73/8.16 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0959*2*1.05 = 0.2014, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.44/7.6 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0431*4*1.1 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/8.33 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0522*4*1.1 = 0.2297, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/7.23 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.072*4 = 0.288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.47 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0715*4 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/5.84 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.04 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484*4 = 0.1936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/6.56 (DPS 0.12)

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