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Wednesday, June 23, 2010

KLCI Stock - MAYBANK / 1155 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 7077982768*7.6 = 53,792,669,036.80 (Large)
NTA per share : (26924056-4513720)/7077983 = 3.17
P/BV : 7.6/3.17 = 2.3975
Forecast P/E now : (7.6-0.19)/0.5824 = 12.72 (Moderate)
ROE : 6.08% (Low)
DY : 0.19/7.6*100 = 2.5% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : Not applicable
Liquidity Ratio : Not applicable
Receivables Collection Period : Not applicable
My Target Price : 8.15+0.19 = 8.34 (PE 14, EPS 0.5824, DPS 0.19)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, good cash flow
Technical Support Price : 6.9
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 8.5 (14 May 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group posted profit attributable to equity holders a significant increase of 104.7% for the third quarter and 60.5% for the nine months period
- The Group’s net interest income for the nine months ended 31 March 2010 increased by 14.3%. The increase in net interest income is mainly due to the full nine months' contribution from PT Bank Internasional Indonesia Tbk (BII), a 97.5% subsidiary acquired on 30 September 2008, and lower interest expense in Singapore and Malaysian banking operations. Income from Islamic Banking operations for the nine months ended 31 March 2010 also increased by 17.6% and this is mainly contributed by the growth of assets in the Islamic business
- Non interest income increased significantly by 80.8% for the nine months ended 31 March 2010 compared to the amount in the previous corresponding period. The increase is contributed by significant increase in unrealised gain on revaluation of derivatives, higher fee income arising from commission, service charges & fees and other loans related fee income, and foreign exchange profit due to strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia against other major currencies
- Overhead expenses increased by 18.6% for the nine months ended 31 March 2010 over the amount in the corresponding period, mainly due to the full nine months' contribution from BII compared to the corresponding period. Personnel cost increased by 15.7%. Establishment costs increased by 22.4% (including amortization of BII's Customer Deposits Intangibles). Administration and general expenses increased by 30.4% due mainly to increase in royalties paid for the expansion of cards businesses and higher professional fees
- Allowance for losses on loans, advances and financing decreased by 4.3%
- Non-interest income for the quarter decreased 3.2% compared to that of preceding quarter. The decrease is mainly attributable to significant loans related fee income posted in the second quarter ended 31 December 2009 which are non-recurring in nature
- Overhead expenses for the quarter decreased by 3.2% over that of the preceding quarter mainly due to lower personnel expenses, lower establishment costs and claims incurred. This was however partly offset by higher marketing expenses
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1456*4 = 0.5824, estimate PE on current price 7.6 = 12.72(DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1404*4 = 0.5616, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.48/11.75 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1246*4 = 0.4984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/13.1 (DPS 0.08)

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