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Saturday, September 15, 2012

KLCI Stock - MAHSING / 8583 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,861,123,924 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(2.22-0.11)/0.2984 = 7.07 (Moderate)
Target Price2.54+0.11 = 2.65 (PE 8.5, EPS 0.2984, DPS 0.11)
DecisionBUY if stock price strong sustain above SMA20 or wait next uptrend above SMA100
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.4%, eps increased 0.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.5%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 18.3% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, maintaine high margin, liquidity ratio indicate financial strength still good although is weakening recently, high gearing ratio with high profit indicate great deal of leverage but increase concern on lender, all accounting of collection or repayment period is still manageable , higher property development cost can indicate property business still good prospects
First Support Price2.15
Second Support Price2.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HLG Target Price2.37 (2012-05-29)
OSK Target Price2.69 (2012-05-29)
AMMB Target Price3.6 (2012-08-17)
CIMB Target Price2.71 (2012-08-17)
Maybank Target Price2.38 (2012-08-17)
MIDF Target Price2.85 (2012-08-17)
TA Target Price2.77 (2012-08-17)
Kenanga Target Price2.4 (2012-09-13)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity20.02%
Dividend Yield4.95%
Gross Profit Margin28.57%
Operating Profit Margin17.62%
Net Profit Margin18.22%
Tax Rate27.47%
Asset Turnover0.5656
Net Asset Value Per Share1.34
Net Tangible Asset per share1.33
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.79
Cash Per Share0.66
Liquidity Current Ratio2.6497
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0173
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5198
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.7363
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.632
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale100.3%
Days to sell the inventory502
Days to collect the receivables109
Days to pay the payables264

Technical Analysis 
SMA 102.214 (Downtrend)
SMA 202.256 (Downtrend 9 days)
SMA 502.157 (Uptrend)
SMA 1002.024 (Uptrend)
SMA 2001.969 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.00224 ( 0.000659 )
Signal (9)0.017797 ( 0.005009 )
MACD Histogram0.020037 (Bearish trend 19 days)
Bolinger Upper Band2.411
Bolinger Lower Band2.101

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- As at 30 June 2012, the Group’s remaining undeveloped land was 1,495 acres and approximately RM18.0 billion in total remaining GDV and unbilled sales

- Plastics segment continued to contribute positively to group revenue and profit. Whilst revenue grew marginally by 1%, profit margin was affected by foreign exchange difference and higher staff costs as a result of minimum wage ruling in Indonesia

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 1142523*0.22/842207 = 0.2984, estimate PE on current price 2.22 = 7.07(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1151402*0.21/844481 = 0.2863, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.36/6.51 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1088489*0.18/853767 = 0.2295, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.69/7.73 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0499*4*0.95 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.2/8.41 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4 = 0.2016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.12/7.01 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0485*4 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/10.64 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0376*4*1.1 = 0.1654, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.05/13.2 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4*1.1 = 0.1571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/10.85 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0355*4*1.1 = 0.1562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/10.47 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034*4*1.1 = 0.1496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.13/9.99 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.6/10.53 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)

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