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Thursday, July 15, 2010

KLCI Stock - FAVCO / 7229 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 176856020*0.8 = 141,484,816 (Small)
NTA per share : (176017-10235)/174472 = 0.95 (Decreased)
P/BV : 0.8/0.95 = 0.8421
Forecast P/E now : (0.8-0.04)/0.1009 = 7.53 (High)
ROE : 13.63% (Moderate)
DY : 0.04/0.8*100 = 5% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.7983+0.925+0.9083)/3 = 0.8772 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 515778/431840 = 1.1944 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (181849+190870)/2/(496519/365) = 136 days (Bad)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit recover
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreased a lot, as usual bad cash flow at first quarter financial year, very high debt, navps decreased
Technical Support Price : 0.76
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- For the current period ended 31 March 2010("Q1 2010"), the Group recorded decrease in revenue and profit before tax as compared with the preceding period ended 31 March 2009("Q1 2009"), the decrease was mainly due to decrease in sales resulted from slow order intake in Year 2009 attributed to global slowdown
- The Group recorded decrease in profit before tax as compared to the preceding quarter. The decrease was mainly due to decrease in sales
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1442*0.7 = 0.1009 (30% drop from 0.1442, revenue drop and margin expect will not increase much), estimate PE on current price 0.8 = 7.53(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1442(10% drop from 0.1602, revenue drop and margin expect will not increase much), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.93/4.92 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.76/4.99 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.45/5.49 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.11/5.72 (DPS 0.025)

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