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Tuesday, July 13, 2010

KLCI Stock - NATBIO / 7237 - 2010 Quarter 4


Listing Date: 14.05.2007
Market: MAIN
Par Value: 0.20
Major Industry: Food & Beverages
Sub Industry : Brewers
Market Cap : 300000000*0.54 = 162,000,000 (Small)
NTA per share : (191852-158-5317)/300000 = 0.62
P/BV : 0.54/0.62 = 0.871
Forecast P/E now : (0.54-0.04)/0.0338 = 14.79 (High)
ROE : 5.28% (Low)
DY : 0.04/0.54*100 = 7.41% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.6787+0.6123+0.7371)/3 = 0.676 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 138177/30228 = 4.5712 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (53179+56354)/2/(153092/365) = 130 days
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increasing but profit only slightly increase from year 2009, good cash flow, low debt and decreased, navps same as preceding quarter
Technical Support Price : 0.5
Risk Rating : HIGH

NATURAL BIO RESOURCES BERHAD is engaged in the business of ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee, RTD tea and energy drinks. Its RTD coffee is sold under its brand Ali Cafe, Per’l Cafe and Oligo Cafe, while its energy drinks and RTD tea are sold under its brands Power Root, Per’l and Alitea. Through its subsidiaries the Company is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of various beverages. During the fiscal year ended February 29, 2008, the Company expanded its product range by launching three new products in Malaysia namely Per’l Choco, Oligo Coco and Oligo Cereal. In March 2008, the Company acquired a dormant company, PR Global Assets Limited.

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded 45% increase of revenue as compared to previous year's corresponding quarter. The increase was mainly attributable to the increase in sales from the domestic market
- The Group recorded a lower loss after tax, mainly due to the under-provision of deferred tax expense in prior year
- The Group recorded 7.5% increase of revenue when compared to the revenue recorded for the immediate preceding quarter. The increase in sales was mainly due to increase in sales from the domestic market after the fasting month of Hari Raya Puasa
- The Group recorded loss after tax from PAT recorded for the last quarter. The decrease was mainly due to under-provision of deferred tax expense in prior year and higher market and selling expenses incurred
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0338(follow 2010 cumulative eps), estimate PE on current price 0.54 = 14.79(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.25/11.13 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.68/12.03 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.94/12.35 (DPS 0.03)

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