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Thursday, July 15, 2010

KLCI Stock - MITRA / 9571 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 127989267*1.28 = 163,826,261.76 (Small)
NTA per share : (266525-3148)/121116 = 2.17
P/BV : 1.28/2.17 = 0.5899
Forecast P/E now : (1.28-0.1)/0.12 = 9.83 (High)
ROE : 17.32% (Moderate)
DY : 0.1/1.28*100 = 7.81% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.7638+0.4119+0.6807)/3 = 0.6188 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 274686/120402 = 2.2814 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (64515+74294)/2/(355749/365) = 71 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 0.96+0.1 = 1.06 (PE 8, EPS 0.12, DPS 0.1)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 1
My Comment : QbQ revenue increasing stop but still higher than preceding year corresponding period, profit still high, assets and liabilities decreased, still negative cash flow, above moderate debt but got decreased, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 1, 0.945
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-

- For this current quarter under review, the Group's revenue has increased by 84% as compared to a revenue in the preceding year corresponding quarter. The increase in revenue is mainly derived from the progressive revenue recognition from the Group's property projects
- The Group generated lower revenue and profit before tax for the current quarter under review as compared to the preceding quarter due to lower level of construction activities from the existing proejcts in the first quarter of 2010. Apart from that, there were additional revenue and profit recognition from the completed projects upon accounts finalisation with client in the last quarter of 2009
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.12(average of 0.03 per quarter), estimate PE on current price 1.28 = 9.83(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.08(average of 0.02 per quarter if no new big project secure for construction division), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.13/7.63 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.88/6.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.38

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