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Friday, March 11, 2011

KLCI Stock - GAB / 3255 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,972,644,320 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(9.84-0.45)/0.5832 = 16.10 (High)
Target Price9.33+0.45 = 9.78 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.5832, DPS 0.45)
DecisionNot interested when high commodity price
Comment
Revenue increased 14.9% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.4%, eps increased 67.1% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 47.6%, negative free cash flow decreased but negative net cash flow increasing, liquidity ratio decreased at moderate level now, gearing ratio increasing to moderate level now, all accounting periods are good, higher commodity price going to impact the cost
First Support Price9.15
Second Support Price8.3
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price9.97 (2011-01-25)
AMMB Target Price9.04 (2011-01-31)
TA Target Price9.95 (2011-01-31)
Maybank Target Price10.6 (2011-02-21)
UOB Target Price10.3 (2011-02-21)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity39.60%
Dividend Yield4.57%
Profit Margin20.45%
Tax Rate25.01%
Asset Turnover2.0335
Net Asset Value Per Share1.55
Net Tangible Asset per share1.52
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share6.34
Cash Per Share0.16
Liquidity Current Ratio2.195
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.7872
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2191
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.54
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3506
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale18.0%
Days to sell the inventory27
Days to collect the receivables86
Days to pay the payables56

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue for the second quarter ended 31 December 2010 increased by RM43.3 million or 11.4% compared to the corresponding quarter in the previous financial year

- Group profit before tax for the same quarter was higher at RM86.2 million or 46.9% compared to RM58.7 million in the corresponding quarter of the financial year 2010

- Group revenue for the quarter under review was higher by RM54.8 million or 14.9% compared to RM366.6 million recorded for the preceding quarter

- Profit before tax for the Group for the same quarter was higher by RM34.6 million or 66.9% compared to the preceding quarter

- This favourable performance is due to higher sales in anticipation of Chinese New Year, the write-back of some costs over accrued and a further improvement in the Group’s market performance

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6139*0.95 = 0.5832, estimate PE on current price 9.84 = 16.1(DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.545, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.36/15.32 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5054*1.05 = 0.5307 (5% grow from 0.5054, due to next year no more world cup), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.81/14.23 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.517 (10% grow from 0.47), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.99/12.55 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.517, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.17/12.13 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/13.17 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.47/12.9.6 (DPS 0.41)

GAB latest news (English)

GAB latest news (Chinese)

1 comment:

有目标的大头 said...

wow, really awesome, I did invest GAB, but agree with you that current price was too high, still waiting right timing to top up...^^

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