KLCI Stock - MUDAJYA / 5085 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,932,820,950 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.7-0.045)/0.5351 = 8.70 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.42+0.045 = 6.47 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.5351, DPS 0.045)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue increased 20.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.8%, eps increased 22.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 26.7%, negative free cash flow decreased and positive net cash flow increased, liquidity ratio decreasing to low level, gearing ratio increasing to moderate level, receivables and payables period getting longer, property development loss increased, more opportunity from power plant project in India, opportunity of Hydroelectric Power Project from Lao
First Support Price	4.6
Second Support Price	4.2
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	7.44 (2011-01-24)
CIMB Target Price	7.94 (2011-02-21)
HLG Target Price	6.54 (2011-02-21)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	27.06%
Dividend Yield	1.17%
Profit Margin	32.22%
Tax Rate	16.46%
Asset Turnover	0.7243
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.75
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.75
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.93
Cash Per Share	0.62
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.9589
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.7497
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.7018
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.6004
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3581
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	40.1%
Days to sell the inventory	47
Days to collect the receivables	160
Days to pay the payables	209

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group achieved revenue of RM869.4 million and profit before taxation of RM286.6 million for the twelve months period ended 31 December 2010, as compared to RM720.0 million and RM168.0 million respectively for the previous corresponding period. The growth in revenue and profit before taxation of 20.8% and 70.6% respectively were mainly attributable to the increased level of activities during the current period as compared to the previous corresponding period

- The Group achieved revenue of RM230.3 million and profit before taxation of RM74.2 million for the current quarter ended 31 December 2010, as compared to RM191.2 million and RM61.7 million respectively for the preceding quarter. Both revenue and profit before taxation increased by 20.4% and 20.3% during the current quarter as compared to the preceding quarter mainly attributable to the increased level of activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5096*1.05 = 0.5351, estimate PE on current price 4.7 = 8.68(DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1137*0.9*4 = 0.4093, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/9.05 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1235*0.9*4 = 0.4446(based on preceding quarter eps to minus 10% adjustment due to revenue dropped 12%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.34/8.54 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1235*4 = 0.494, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.27/7.51 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1102*4 = 0.4408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.51/10.81 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4 = 0.3792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.76/10.68 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0711*4 = 0.2844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/11.25 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0377*4 = 0.1508, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.6/9.08 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/9.58 (DPS 0.045)

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