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Thursday, March 3, 2011

KLCI Stock - ZHULIAN / 5131 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)768,200,000 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.67-0.12)/0.2014 = 7.70 (Moderate)
Target Price1.81+0.12 = 1.93 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.2014, DPS 0.12)
Revenue increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, free cash flow increasing, positive net cash flow decreased, liquidity ratio decreasing but still strong, gearing ratio increasing but still low, all accounting period are good, USD against MYR still weak
First Support Price1.7
Second Support Price1.6

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price2.5 (2011-02-09)
ZJ Target Price2.18 (2011-02-16)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity24.73%
Dividend Yield7.19%
Profit Margin35.13%
Tax Rate18.71%
Asset Turnover0.7954
Net Asset Value Per Share0.77
Net Tangible Asset per share0.76
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.29
Cash Per Share0.29
Liquidity Current Ratio4.4511
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.5756
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.5968
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1523
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1321
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale54.2%
Days to sell the inventory66
Days to collect the receivables55
Days to pay the payables70

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a profit before taxation of RM29.822 million and revenue of RM84.896 million for the fourth quarter of FY 2010. The profit before taxation and revenue for the financial year to date was RM105.897 million and RM322.611 million respectively

- The revenue for the current quarter under review of RM84.896 million was higher than the immediate preceding quarter’s revenue of RM73.468 million, mainly due to the increase in market demands for both local and overseas. The current quarter’s profit before tax of RM29.822 million has increased as compared to the immediate preceding quarter’s profit before tax of RM23.962 million, which was in line with the increase in revenue

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0959*2*1.05 = 0.2014, estimate PE on current price 1.67 = 7.7(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0431*4*1.1 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/8.33 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0522*4*1.1 = 0.2297, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/7.23 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.072*4 = 0.288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.47 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0715*4 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/5.84 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.04 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484*4 = 0.1936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/6.56 (DPS 0.12)

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1 comment:

Mr Loso said...

very good analysis, mind analyse for Fajar and Daya as well? Thanks for your previous comment on Mahsing that help me earn 35% profit.

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