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Friday, April 29, 2011

KLCI Stock - EKSONS / 9016 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)231,540,330 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.80

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.41-0.025)/0.1096 = 12.64 (High)
Target Price0.99+0.025 = 1.01 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.1096, DPS 0.025)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue decreased 14% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.5%, eps decreased 46.4% and is third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.2%, cash generated from operating mostly used to increase inventories hence still increase borrowing, liquidity ratio increased at high level now, gearing ratio decreased from below moderate t low level now, inventory ratio still high, affecting by weakening USD against MYR, higher log costs, property division growing
First Support Price0.98
Second Support Price0.94
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.37%
Dividend Yield3.90%
Profit Margin7.04%
Tax Rate6.81%
Asset Turnover0.6986
Net Asset Value Per Share2.19
Net Tangible Asset per share2.03
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.55
Cash Per Share0.32
Liquidity Current Ratio3.5615
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2982
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7674
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1901
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1517
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale55.6%
Days to sell the inventory193
Days to collect the receivables37
Days to pay the payables33

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The lower margin for the current financial year to date in timber is mainly due to higher production costs especially log costs

- The fluctuation noted in the turnover of the quarters under review is mainly due to delays in the arrival of purchasers’ vessels for loading

- Construction activity on the Group’s development project has increased as work has begun on more parcels of the project

- Demand for plywood is expected to remain at current levels for the medium term

- Construction activities are proceeding expeditiously on the boulevard shops and shop offices where completion is expected in stages between mid-2011 to 3rd quarter 2012

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0261*4*1.05 = 0.1096, estimate PE on current price 1.41 = 12.64(DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336(use profit margin 6% from 93k revenue), estimate PE on current price 1.18 = 8.76/6.96 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0342*4 = 0.1368(use profit margin 8% from 70k revenue), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.51 (DPS 0.05) (Amendment)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.11*0.9 = 0.099(0.11 is year 2010 cum_eps excluded 9.9 million and 10% negative adjustment for those tax refund), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.11, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.82/7.36 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.95/7.5 (DPS 0.02)

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