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Tuesday, April 12, 2011

KLCI Stock - GENTING / 3182 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)39,961,249,485 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(10.76-0.078)/0.588 = 18.17 (High)
Target Price10.58+0.078 = 10.66 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.588, DPS 0.078)
DecisionNot buy unless price below 10.2
Revenue increased 4.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 76.1%, eps decreased 39.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 90%, cash generated from operating is enough to cover repayment of financing activities but due to more investing activities hence will require increase borrowings, liquidity ratio slightly increased at high level now, gearing ratio decreasing at high level now, payables decreasing but still high, CPO price increasing
First Support Price10.0
Second Support Price9.8

Research House
UOB Target Price12.54 (2011-01-12)
Credit Suisse Target Price13.5 (2011-01-13)
CIMB Target Price15.5 (2011-02-07)
TA Target Price13.26 (2011-02-18)
HwangDBS Target Price14.3 (2011-02-24)
Maybank Target Price12.58 (2011-02-24)
RHB Target Price12.4 (2011-03-01)
Macquarie Target Price11.6 (2011-04-06)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity7.47%
Dividend Yield0.72%
Profit Margin28.95%
Tax Rate31.83%
Asset Turnover0.31
Net Asset Value Per Share4.19
Net Tangible Asset per share3.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.27
Cash Per Share4.41
Liquidity Current Ratio3.2611
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.1706
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.7703
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2626
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3992
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale87.9%
Days to sell the inventory23
Days to collect the receivables55
Days to pay the payables176

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The increase revenue came mainly from the Leisure & Hospitality Division with the commencement of operations of Resorts World Sentosa (“RWS”) in Singapore in the first quarter of this year. Revenue from Resorts World Genting (“RWG”) increased mainly due to better luck factor in the premium players business. The revenue from the UK casino operations decreased mainly due to poor luck factor and the weaker Sterling Pound. However, the business volume has shown improvement over the previous year’s corresponding quarter

- Increased revenue from the Plantation Division was due to higher palm products prices

- The lower revenue from the Power Division was due to lower generation of electricity by both the Kuala Langat and the Meizhou Wan power plants

- The lower revenue from the Oil & Gas Division was due to the disposal of Genting Oil & Gas (China) Limited

- EBITDA of RWS was higher in the current quarter due to the improvement in revenue substantially contributed by the increase in the volume of premium players’ business, with significant contribution from Universal Studios Singapore and the hotels

- The profit before tax of the Group in the preceding quarter included a one-off net gain of RM413.6 million arising from Deferred Consideration and net impairment losses of RM250.6 million, whilst a loss of RM145.4 million arising from loss on discontinuance of cash flow hedge accounting using IRS was recorded in the current quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.14*4*1.05 = 0.588, estimate PE on current price 10.76 = 18.17(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0945*4 = 0.3781, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.49/26.22 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1985*4 = 0.794, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.53/11.22 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2813*1.15 = 0.3235(15% increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.54/2 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0661*4 = 0.2644, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.77/23.18 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0999*4 = 0.3996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/15.62 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 33.23/27.64 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0574*4 = 0.2296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.88/23 (DPS 0.07)

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