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Saturday, February 26, 2011

KLCI Stock - IRCB / 2127 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)150,966,681 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.255/0.0079 = 32.28 (High)
Target Price0.0079*6.0 = 0.05 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.0079)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps decreased(exclude other income) and turn into loss compared to preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow more negative, net and final cash flow still negative, liquidity ratio increasing but still weak, gearing ratio decreasing but still high, all accounting periods are acceptable, high latex price, USD against MYR still weak
First Support Price0.24
Second Support Price0.225
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity5.58%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin9.01%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.9187
Net Asset Value Per Share0.31
Net Tangible Asset per share0.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.47
Cash Per Share0.0
Liquidity Current Ratio0.939
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.3833
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0049
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2644
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5584
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-3.1%
Days to sell the inventory104
Days to collect the receivables70
Days to pay the payables45

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group's profit before taxation for the quarter ended 31 October 2010 was RM2.87 million as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter's profit before taxation of RM0.35 million. The higher current year's quarter profit was mainly due to the gain on disposal of land

- The Group recorded a profit before taxation of RM2.87 million on a revenue of RM31.82 million for the current quarter as compared to a profit before taxation of RM0.15 million on a revenue of RM33.83 million for the immediate preceding quarter ended 31 July 2010. The higher profit in the current quarter was mainly due to the disposal of land

- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced due to exclude other income will be a loss, if use eps from FY2010Q2 to FY2011Q1 = 0.0079, estimate PE on current price 0.255 = 32.28
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0021*2*1.05 = 0.0044(exclude gain from sale of land), estimate highest/lowest PE = 118.18/51.14
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0079(remain recent last 4Q cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 102.53/48.73
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0022*4 = 0.0088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 128.41/67.61

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Friday, February 25, 2011

KLCI Stock - HSL / 6238 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,037,163,280 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.78-0.026)/0.1533 = 11.44 (Moderate)
Target Price2.15+0.026 = 2.17 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1533, DPS 0.026)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue second consecutive quarter largely increasing and is highest all the time, eps second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow increasing but positive net cash flow decreased, liquidity ratio decreasing at low level now, moderate gearing ratio, receivables and payables period are high
First Support Price1.72
Second Support Price1.55
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price2.32 (2011-01-17)
Maybank Target Price2.3 (2011-01-25)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity21.81%
Dividend Yield1.24%
Profit Margin20.31%
Tax Rate25.64%
Asset Turnover0.8176
Net Asset Value Per Share0.6
Net Tangible Asset per share0.6
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.2
Cash Per Share0.15
Liquidity Current Ratio1.7542
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5612
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.382
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6807
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4049
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale35.3%
Days to sell the inventory41
Days to collect the receivables201
Days to pay the payables206

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s revenue for the quarter under review is RM134.35 million against the preceding year corresponding quarter’s figure of RM101.73 million. Net profit before tax of the Group for the current quarter is RM27.28 million as compared to RM20.67 million for the preceding year’s corresponding quarter

- The net profit before tax of the Group for the current quarter is RM27.28 million compared to RM23.98 million for the immediate preceding quarter on the back of the Group’s revenue of RM134.35 million and RM111.26 million respectively

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0697*2*1.1 = 0.1533, estimate PE on current price 1.78 = 11.44(DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0574*2*1.1 = 0.1263, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.08/11.99 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.95/11.49 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.88/11.05 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.96/8.75 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0233*4 = 0.0932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/9.7 (DPS 0.016)

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Thursday, February 24, 2011

KLCI Stock - LPI / 8621 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,036,565,005 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(13.72-0.55)/0.7021 = 18.76 (High)
Target Price11.23+0.55 = 11.78 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.7021, DPS 0.55)
DecisionNOT BUY unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, free and net cash flow largely increased
First Support Price13
Second Support Price12.35
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price12.3 (2011-01-12)
RHB Target Price12.37 (2011-01-12)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity11.89%
Dividend Yield4.01%
Profit Margin25.76%
Tax Rate24.83%
Asset Turnover0.37
Net Asset Value Per Share5.37
Net Tangible Asset per share5.37
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.59
Cash Per Share2.72
Liquidity Current Ratio5.7618
Liquidity Quick Ratio4.1339
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.7701
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9362
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4835
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale124.1%
Days to sell the inventory6038
Days to collect the receivables119
Days to pay the payables1172

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group's revenue and profit before tax for the current quarter and financial year ended 31 December 2010 increased as compared to the previous corresponding quarter and financial year in 2009

- For the current quarter and financial year ended 31 December 2010, the Group's revenue increased by 6.6% to RM190.7 million and by 7.7% to RM752.1 million respectively. The significant increase was mainly due to higher gross premium underwritten

- The Group's profit before tax also increased by 5.6% to RM49.1 million for the current quarter and by 12.4% to RM181.3 million for the financial year ended 31 December 2010. The increase in the current period was mainly due to higher investment income while the increase in the financial year ended 31 December 2010 was mainly attributed by higher underwriting profit

- For the fourth quarter ended 31 December 2010, the Group recorded higher profit before tax of RM49.1 million as compared to RM47.4 million in the preceding quarter ended 30 September 2010 despite registering a lower investment income for the said quarter. The underwriting results contributed positively to the fourth quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.6383*1.1 = 0.7021, estimate PE on current price 13.72 = 18.76(DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1685*4*1.05 = 0.7077, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.57/15.42 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.46/15.5 (DPS 0.5125)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.76 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.0533(15% grow from 0.9159), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.94/11.53 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.0253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/11.16 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.0204, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.43/10.25 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.88/8.63 (DPS 0.85)

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KLCI Stock - SEB / 5163 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)47,200,000 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.59/0.0496 = 11.90 (High)
Target Price0.0496*4.5 = 0.22 (PE 4.5, EPS 0.0496)
DecisionNot BUY unless revenue and profit stabilize in coming quarter
Comment
Revenue Second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than FY09, eps Decreased, lower than preceding year corresponding quarter also, only slightly better than FY10Q1, No free cash flow but net cash flow increasing, Revenue increasing but still low, profit dropped a lot if compare to FY09, cash increasing from CFF, liquidity ratio decreased but still at moderate level, gearing ratio increased at moderate level now, receivables increasing, expanding production capacity, steel price increasing, Europe market recovering
First Support Price0.59
Second Support Price0.585
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity5.57%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin14.63%
Tax Rate20.49%
Asset Turnover0.5462
Net Asset Value Per Share0.77
Net Tangible Asset per share0.77
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.79
Cash Per Share0.21
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1494
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6475
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5756
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6458
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.39
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale66.8%
Days to sell the inventory116
Days to collect the receivables227
Days to pay the payables132

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):
- The current year results showed a Group revenue of RM50.62 million and a profit before taxation (“PBT”) of RM4.11 million as compared to a revenue of RM69.04 million and PBT of RM12.16 million in the previous financial year respectively

- The current quarter results showed a Group revenue of RM22.71 million and PBT of RM3.32 million as compared to a revenue of RM17.05 million and PBT of RM4.00 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year respectively

- The lower PBT for current year and current quarter as compared to preceding year and preceding year corresponding quarter was mainly due to lower margin

- The profit before taxation of RM3.32 million for the current quarter as compared to the profit before taxation in preceding quarter of RM0.11 million was mainly due to higher sales

- Revenue and profit dropped a lot when compared to FY09,08,07, average EPS in last 3 years was 0.1386, if FY10 still can achieve this result then PE base on current price 0.64 = 4.62

- Next quarter Q1 result maybe low, use year 2010 cum_eps to estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0431*1.15 = 0.0496(revenue, profit and receivables also largely increased), estimate PE on current price 0.59 = 11.9
- Revenue QbQ increasing more than 15%, use 10% profit margin, estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0168+0.0193)*2 = 0.0722, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.63/8.1

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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

KLCI Stock - GTRONIC / 7022 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)295,648,100 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.11-0.0965)/0.1304 = 7.77 (Moderate)
Target Price1.24+0.0965 = 1.34 (PE 9.5, EPS 0.1304, DPS 0.0965)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, free and net cash flow both turn into negative, liquidity ratio decreasing to low level now, low gearing ratio, all accounting period are good, during Q3 period, price was all time higher than Q2 period lowest price 1.02
First Support Price1.1
Second Support Price1.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
MIDF Target Price1.4 (2011-01-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.44%
Dividend Yield7.79%
Profit Margin15.79%
Tax Rate34.34%
Asset Turnover0.9131
Net Asset Value Per Share0.91
Net Tangible Asset per share0.91
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.22
Cash Per Share0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio1.9589
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.698
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.8472
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2671
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2108
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale20.0%
Days to sell the inventory23
Days to collect the receivables65
Days to pay the payables73

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s turnover and net profit for the year ended 31 December 2010 increased significantly by 28% and 88% respectively as compared to the same period last year mainly due to higher volume loadings from all the Group’s customers as a result of recovery of the global economy. The net profit for the year ended 31 December 2009 was partly affected by impairment loss due to the shutdown of the Group’s China operations

- Turnover for the quarter ended 31 December 2010 was approximately RM73.45 million, representing a decrease of 3.8% as compared to the preceding quarter while the net profit of the Group decreased by 12.6%. The decrease in turnover and net profit is mainly due to lower volume loadings after the respective customers’ festive seasons order had been met and higher deferred tax charge

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0326*4 = 0.1304(no decrease due to high tax expenses), estimate PE on current price 1.11 = 7.77(DPS 0.0965)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0326*4 = 0.1304, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.97/7.67 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.026*4 = 0.104(0.026 is average of latest recent quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.94/8.94 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0904+0.0007+(0.0911*0.05) = 0.0957(adjustment from 0.0233-0.0226 and 5% grow adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.61/12.85 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4 = 0.0904, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.36/9.07 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0183*4 = 0.0732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.64/8.74 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0137*4 = 0.0548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.78/13.05 (DPS 0.025)

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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

KLCI Stock - ASIABIO / 0150 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)21,255,000 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.065/0.0042 = 15.48 (High)
Target Price0.0042*4.0 = 0.02 (PE 4.0, EPS 0.0042)
DecisionNOT BUY unless revenue and profit stabilize
Comment
Revenue increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, negative free cash flow and negative net cash flow increasing, liquidity largely decreasing but still at very strong level now, gearing ratio increasing but still at very low level now, receivables turnover period increased
First Support Price0.06
Second Support Price0.055
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity2.75%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin13.82%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.1781
Net Asset Value Per Share0.13
Net Tangible Asset per share0.12
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.58
Cash Per Share0.01
Liquidity Current Ratio8.4756
Liquidity Quick Ratio8.3304
Liquidity Cash Ratio4.8637
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.0197
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0185
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale77.6%
Days to sell the inventory7
Days to collect the receivables131
Days to pay the payables49

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The ABT Group achieved a consolidated profit after taxation of approximately RM1.1 million on the back of a consolidated revenue of RM5.5 million due mainly to dividend from its incubatees. As the Group is involved in incubation activities especially on high technology areas, it hold investments particularly in start-ups. In view thereof, its performance is subjected to various volatilities

- Revenue for the current quarter and profit before taxation was due to contribution from Nexfuel

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0042, estimate PE on current price 0.08 = 19.05
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0042, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.05/14.29
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0036+0.0006(average of eps per quarter in year 2009)*4 = 0.006, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.17/10.08

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KLCI Stock - SUPERMX / 7106 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,499,741,510 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(4.41-0.075)/0.3848 = 11.27 (High)
Target Price3.85+0.075 = 3.92 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.3848, DPS 0.075)
DecisionNOT BUY unless latex price decrease or USD strengthening
Comment
Revenue slightly decreased but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps third consecutive quarter decreasing and also largely lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow increasing and turn into positive net cash flow from , liquidity ratio largely decreased from moderate to low level now, gearing ratio increased at moderate level now, receivables and payables period largely increased, USD remaining weak, latex price remaining high, Group expanding, switching part of production lines to produce more Nitrile Powder Free gloves
First Support Price4.0
Second Support Price3.8
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
TA Target Price6.3 (2011-02-11)
Kenanga Target Price6.8 (2011-02-16)
OSK Target Price7.84 (2011-02-16)
CIMB Target Price6.37 (2011-02-17)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity23.82%
Dividend Yield1.70%
Profit Margin14.10%
Tax Rate0.31%
Asset Turnover0.7949
Net Asset Value Per Share2.08
Net Tangible Asset per share1.99
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.14
Cash Per Share0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8882
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4876
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4206
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6449
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3921
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale27.9%
Days to sell the inventory55
Days to collect the receivables122
Days to pay the payables63

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group revenue for the quarter under review compared to the previous year corresponding quarter was 18.4% higher but profit before tax was 34.7% lower, mainly due to continuous high latex prices and unfavourable exchange rates

- The Group revenue for current quarter versus the preceding quarter was decreased 1% and profit before tax was decreased 20.8%

- Supermax Global Limited will enable the Group to earned new income stream from the trading of gloves from other manufacturers as well as other healthcare and medical devices such as masks and surgical gowns

- The Group has switched more of its production lines to produce nitrile gloves, from 24% to 30% and possibly up to between 40%-45% of total installed capacity

- The Group is well placed to meet the market demands as up to 70% of the Group's production lines are built to be inter-switchable between natural rubber and nitrile rubber

- The Group has been actively adjusting selling prices to mitigate the impact of increased raw material prices as well as the unfavourable foreign exchange rates

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0962*4 = 0.3848, estimate PE on current price 4.41 = 11.27(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1124*4*1.1 = 0.4946, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.31/7.77 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1351*4*0.9 = 0.4864(correction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.82/7.43 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6576+0.0253 = 0.6829, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.38/8.77 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1644*4 = 0.6576, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.16/8.24 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1514*4 = 0.6056, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/5.3 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0972*4 = 0.3888, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.74/5.14 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0743*4 = 0.2972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.01 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2499, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.67/3.07 (DPS 0.0325)

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Monday, February 21, 2011

KLCI Stock - DXN / 5074 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)358,738,360 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.25

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.49-0.085)/0.2121 = 6.62 (Moderate)
Target Price1.91+0.085 = 1.99 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.2121, DPS 0.085)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, free cash flow increasing and net cash flow increased also, liquidity ratio increasing at high level now, gearing ratio decreasing at below moderate level now, inventory period slightly longer but still acceptable if compared to previous quarter, subsidiaries increasing
First Support Price1.4
Second Support Price1.2
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity18.25%
Dividend Yield5.70%
Profit Margin23.59%
Tax Rate19.95%
Asset Turnover0.9374
Net Asset Value Per Share0.96
Net Tangible Asset per share0.91
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.65
Cash Per Share0.17
Liquidity Current Ratio3.2204
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6464
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6993
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3381
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2501
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale44.4%
Days to sell the inventory142
Days to collect the receivables61
Days to pay the payables53

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a revenue of RM64.6 million for the current quarter ended 30 November 2010 which was higher than the corresponding quarter revenue of RM62.3 million. The increase in revenue was due to the Multi Level Marketing segment revenue continued to growth steadily by RM5.5 million, however the revenue contributed from property and others segment declined by RM3.2 million compared to the corresponding quarter. Accumulatively, the Group recorded RM 214.8 million revenue for the nine months financial period ended 30 November 2010

- The Group recorded a profit before tax (“PBT”) of RM 15.2 million for the current quarter ended 30 November 2010 as compared to the corresponding quarter of RM 12.1 million with PBT margin of 23.6% compared to 19.4%. The PBT for the current quarter has been accounted for the final provision of its investment in CapOne subordinated bond of RM0.5 million under the Collateralised Loan Obligation programme. The higher PBT margin was contributed from its Multi Level Marketing segment especially of the higher overseas sales of its health food supplements products

- The Group reported a revenue of RM 64.6 million in the current quarter ended 30 November 2010 which was lower than the preceding quarter revenue of RM 82.5 million with PBT margin of 23.6% compared to 18.6%. The decreased in revenue was mainly due to the lower revenue generated from its property and others segment. The higher PBT margin was contributed from its Multi Level Marketing segment

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0505*4*1.05 = 0.2121, estimate PE on current price 1.49 = 6.62(DPS 0.085)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1465*1.05 = 0.1538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.99/4.5 (DPS 0.0375)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1238*0.9 = 0.1114(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.24/4.44 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0397*4*0.8 = 0.127, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.28/4.49 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0615*2 = 0.123, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.81/4.11 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0874*1.1 = 0.0961, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.87/3.64 (DPS 0.03)

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Sunday, February 20, 2011

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)736,858,640 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.12-0.03)/0.0851 = 12.81 (High)
Target Price0.85+0.03 = 0.88 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0851, DPS 0.03)
DecisionNOT BUY unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, got free and positive net cash flow, moderate liquidity ratio, moderate gearing ratio, inventory and payables period increased, number of stores increasing, raw material like cotton rising
First Support Price1.1
Second Support Price0.98
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price0.95 (2010-11-30)
ECM Target Price1.07 (2010-12-28)
BIMB Target Price1.22 (2011-01-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity24.56%
Dividend Yield15.18%
Profit Margin18.77%
Tax Rate28.47%
Asset Turnover1.3674
Net Asset Value Per Share1.92
Net Tangible Asset per share1.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.68
Cash Per Share1.1
Liquidity Current Ratio2.4103
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5792
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.2355
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5057
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3359
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale31.9%
Days to sell the inventory126
Days to collect the receivables28
Days to pay the payables105

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Revenues for the quarter under review were RM136.6 million and Profit before Taxation was RM25.6 million. These were respectively 3% and 5% less than the same achieved in the previous year’s corresponding quarter

- The reduction in Revenues could be attributed to the shorter Hari Raya Aidilfitri shopping season of 2010. In 2009, Ramadan ended on 19th September, whereas in 2010, the month ended on 9th September. The relatively larger decline in Profit before Taxation however had resulted from increased expenses arising out of an expanded distribution network. In the 12 months ended 30th September 2010, the Group had opened 7 new outlets, closed 2, and added nearly 62,000 square feet to the gross floor area for retailing in Malaysia. As awareness for the new stores improves, we expect sales revenues to rise and contribute to future profitability

- Compared to the previous quarter, revenue for the quarter under review had increased by RM22.2 million or 19%. The increase was due to the month long carnival sales season that accompanied the Merdeka and Hari Raya festive celebrations occurring during the quarter under review. Profit before Taxation for the quarter considered also increased by nearly RM7million (37%). Profit before Taxation had risen quite substantially quarter-on-quarter because of the smaller percentage increase (11%) in operating expenses over the same periods considered

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate PE on current price 1.12 = 12.81(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

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Saturday, February 19, 2011

KLCI Stock - ASIAPAC / 4057 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)112,161,220 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.115/0.0263 = 4.37 (Moderate)
Target Price0.0263*6.0 = 0.16 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.0263)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue third consecutive quarter largely decreasing and also largely lower than preceding year corresponding period, eps increased from loss but 50% lower than preceding year corresponding period, negative free cash flow increased and net cash flow turn into negative from positive, liquidity ratio largely increasing to high level now, gearing ratio decreased but still at above moderate level now, inventory and payables period very high, receivables period increasing but still acceptable
First Support Price0.095
Second Support Price0.08
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity3.74%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin30.45%
Tax Rate29.11%
Asset Turnover0.1029
Net Asset Value Per Share0.31
Net Tangible Asset per share0.28
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.36
Cash Per Share0.03
Liquidity Current Ratio3.537
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6489
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4446
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.8173
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4497
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale321.0%
Days to sell the inventory1730
Days to collect the receivables94
Days to pay the payables336

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a turnover and pre-tax profit of RM12.3 million and RM484K respectively for the period ended 30 September 2010. This represents a decrease of 79% and 96% in turnover and pre-tax profit respectively as compared to the preceding year corresponding period

- The decrease in turnover and pre-tax profit were mainly due to lower revenue recognised for development activities and the effect of adopting FRS 139 whereby the write back of quoted investments was adjusted in the statement of comprehensive income

- The Group recorded a pre-tax profit of RM1.539 million in the current quarter as compared to the pre-tax loss of RM1.055 million in the preceding quarter. The improved in performance was mainly due to write back of allowance for doubtful debts and profit from sale of quoted investments

- Due to property development costs largely increasing, so estimate future eps will be based on average eps of year 2007 and 2008 which is 0.0263, estimate PE on current price 0.115 = 4.37
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.005*4 = 0.02, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.25/4
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.005*4 = 0.02, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5/3.75
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0141, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.09/4.96
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.018, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.72
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0106, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.85/8.49

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Friday, February 18, 2011

KLCI Stock - HAIO / 7668 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)529,738,538 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.62-0.1)/0.1167 = 21.59 (High)
Target Price0.93+0.1 = 1.03 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.1167, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot BUY unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue fifth consecutive quarter decreasing and is lowest since FY07Q4, eps fourth consecutive quarter largely decreasing and is lowest all the time, negative free cash flow and negative net cash flow both also increased, liquidity ratio increasing at strong level now, gearing ratio decreasing at low level now, all accounting periods are good, MLM division performance more worst
First Support Price2.5
Second Support Price2.2
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
RHB Target Price1.71 (2010-12-20)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity21.35%
Dividend Yield7.82%
Profit Margin17.26%
Tax Rate26.97%
Asset Turnover1.23
Net Asset Value Per Share1.09
Net Tangible Asset per share1.09
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.69
Cash Per Share0.57
Liquidity Current Ratio4.973
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.8179
Liquidity Cash Ratio3.1528
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.22
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1751
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale42.5%
Days to sell the inventory54
Days to collect the receivables26
Days to pay the payables30

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- For the second quarter ended 31 October 2010, the Group recorded lower revenue and pre-tax profit of RM 52.62 million and RM 9.09 million as compared to RM 132.37 million and RM 28.64 million of the corresponding quarter of the preceding year respectively. The drop in revenue and profit was mainly due to lower contribution by its principal subsidiary, the multi-level marketing (“MLM”) division which was the largest contributor to the Group in the preceding year. The recent amendments to the Direct Sales Act appear to have affected the confidence of the direct selling industry. These measures coupled with slower membership growth have directly affected the performance of the MLM division

- The effective sales and marketing strategy in the wholesale division contributed higher external revenue in the second quarter, however lower contribution from its inter-segment sales mainly to MLM division had resulted lower pre-tax profit generated in the current quarter

- For the second quarter under review, the Group recorded lower revenue and pre-tax profit of RM 52.62 million and RM 9.09 million as compared to the immediate preceding quarter of RM 54.75 million and RM 10.79 million, mainly due to the lower contribution from the MLM division and unusually, sales during Ramadhan month were significantly lower. Overall confidence of the distributors was slower to recover after the recent legislative changes described above

- However, the wholesale and retail divisions registered higher revenue and pre-tax profit in the second quarter as compared with the immediate preceding quarter. The members' sales promotion by the retail division usually carried out in the second quarter had contributed higher revenue and pre-tax profit to the Group

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0307*4*0.95 = 0.1167, estimate PE on current price 2.62 = 21.59(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0391*4 = 0.1564, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.01/17.46 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0714*4 = 0.2856*1.1(10% QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.16/8.78 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3729, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.42/9.17 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.78/7.44(DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)

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Thursday, February 17, 2011

KLCI Stock - SAPCRES / 8575 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,596,200,812 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.6-0.07)/0.1892 = 18.66 (High)
Target Price3.22+0.07 = 3.29 (PE 17.0, EPS 0.1892, DPS 0.07)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price around 3
Comment
Revenue third consecutive quarter largely increasing but still slightly lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, reduced negative free cash flow and negative net cash flow, low liquidity ratio, very high gearing ratio, high receivables and payables period, contract increasing, marine services division remaining loss
First Support Price3.3
Second Support Price3.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price3.95 (2011-01-04)
ECM Target Price4.2 (2011-01-17)
AMMB Target Price4.4 (2011-01-27)
Maybank Target Price3.8 (2011-01-27)
MIDF Target Price3.95 (2011-01-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.60%
Dividend Yield1.94%
Profit Margin9.86%
Tax Rate7.89%
Asset Turnover0.7809
Net Asset Value Per Share0.82
Net Tangible Asset per share0.7
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.07
Cash Per Share0.54
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2504
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2158
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3282
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.3697
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.631
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale17.2%
Days to sell the inventory10
Days to collect the receivables222
Days to pay the payables243

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Revenue increased from RM898.1 million in the preceding quarter to RM1.015 billion mainly due to higher revenue from the Installation of Pipeline and Facilities (“IPF”) division

- Profit before tax however decreased from RM112.8 million in the second quarter to RM100.1 million in the current quarter mainly due to lower contribution from drilling and lower activities in the marine services division

- Revenue for the current quarter of RM1.015 billion was marginally lower compared to last year's corresponding quarter of RM1.024 billion mainly due to lower activities in the marine services division, mitigated by higher activities in IPF

- Profit before tax decreased from RM115.5 million to RM100.1 million mainly due to a weaker USD affecting drilling division’s financial performance and the lower activities in marine services division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.043*4*1.1 = 0.1892, estimate PE on current price 3.6 = 18.66(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0417*4*1.05 = 0.1751, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.22/12.79 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1345(maintain same eps as year 2010 due to revenue decreased but profit increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.77/15.54 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1345*0.95 = 0.1278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/14.08 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0422*4*0.8 = 0.135, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/15.48 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0414*4*0.9 = 0.149, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.71/11.01 (DPS 0.06)

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KLCI Stock - MRCB / 1651 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,140,684,915 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.27-0.015)/0.0905 = 24.92 (High)
Target Price1.90+0.015 = 1.92 (PE 21.0, EPS 0.0905, DPS 0.015)
DecisionNOT BUY unless revenue and profit maintain high in each quarter
Comment
Revenue second consecutive quarter largely increasing and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps largely increased and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow decreased to negative but net cash flow increased, liquidity ratio decreasing to moderate level now, gearing ratio increasing to very high level now, receivables and payables period increasing to very high level now, construction division largely increased, property division increased but offset by infrastructure and building division
First Support Price2.15
Second Support Price2.0
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
RHB Target Price2.65 (2011-01-10)
AMMB Target Price2.4 (2011-02-10)
CIMB Target Price3 (2011-02-10)
HwangDBS Target Price3.15 (2011-02-10)
Kenanga Target Price2.46 (2011-02-10)
MIDF Target Price2.46 (2011-02-10)
OSK Target Price2.58 (2011-02-10)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity5.09%
Dividend Yield0.66%
Profit Margin11.38%
Tax Rate20.48%
Asset Turnover0.2433
Net Asset Value Per Share0.99
Net Tangible Asset per share0.95
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.33
Cash Per Share0.58
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1343
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8294
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6332
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.3844
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6989
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale134.2%
Days to sell the inventory143
Days to collect the receivables515
Days to pay the payables335

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded revenue of RM1,067.6 million for the current financial year ended 31 December 2010 as compared to RM921.6 million recorded in the preceding financial year ended 31 December 2009. Higher revenue recorded in the current year was contributed mainly from its construction and engineering division with ongoing work progress reaching maturity stage at relatively higher percentage of recognition compared to previous year. The same impact was also contributed by the Group’s ongoing property development projects at Kuala Lumpur Sentral

- Higher revenue as mentioned above coupled with the improved operational margin of its engineering and construction and property divisions had contributed to the Group recording a higher profit before taxation of RM97.6million for the current financial year ended 31 December 2010 compared to RM46.5 million achieved in the preceding financial year ended 31 December 2009

- The Group achieved a significant jump of over 100% increase in profit before taxation amounting to RM49.3 million for the current quarter ended 31 December 2010 compared to RM23.4 million recorded in the preceding corresponding 4th quarter ended 31 December 2009. The commendable result for the current quarter was mainly contributed by improved profit margin coupled with advanced stage of activities of its engineering and construction ongoing works and property development projects at Kuala Lumpur Sentral. Higher operational margin was achieved on the back of crystallization of its ongoing value engineering and efficient project supervision and cost saving initiatives

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1067579*1.3*0.09/1380582 = 0.0905(profit margin per 9%, revenue yearly increase rate 30%), estimate PE on current price 2.27 = 24.92(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0188*4*1.1 = 0.0827(profit margin 8%, revenue increase rate 20%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.02/22.61 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 5Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0129,0.0175,0.0202,0.0237,0.0313(calculation is based on receivables, revenue, 8% profit margin and 27% tax rate), exclude 0.0129 then cum_eps is 0.0927, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.49/17.26 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0743, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.96/18.03 (DPS 0.01)

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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

KLCI Stock - SPSETIA / 8664 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)6,450,040,958 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.75

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.34-0.2)/0.22 = 27.91 (High)
Target Price4.62+0.2 = 4.82 (PE 21.0, EPS 0.22, DPS 0.2)
DecisionNOT BUY unless core business profit increase more instead of investment gain
Comment
Revenue third consecutive quarter increasing and is historical highest, eps second consecutive quarter increasing and is highest since FY08Q1, but if exclude investment gain then actually lower than preceding quarter and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow decreased and negative net cash flow increased, liquidity increasing at moderate level now, gearing ratio increased at above moderate level now, inventory period decreasing and other accounting period as usual, property development segment profit largely increased but half of it offset by the rest of the segments
First Support Price6.3
Second Support Price5.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price7.7 (2011-01-13)
RHB Target Price8.05 (2011-01-17)
CIMB Target Price8.06 (2011-01-18)
ECM Target Price6 (2011-01-18)
Maybank Target Price7.15 (2011-01-18)
MIDF Target Price6 (2011-01-18)
TA Target Price6.95 (2011-01-18)
AMMB Target Price7.1 (2011-01-19)
OSK Target Price7.23 (2011-01-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity11.50%
Dividend Yield3.15%
Profit Margin18.17%
Tax Rate25.86%
Asset Turnover0.398
Net Asset Value Per Share2.11
Net Tangible Asset per share2.11
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.64
Cash Per Share1.01
Liquidity Current Ratio2.304
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5704
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.8986
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.0034
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5008
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale88.0%
Days to sell the inventory217
Days to collect the receivables158
Days to pay the payables134

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group reported a profit after taxation of RM75.2 million for Q4 2010, which is 32% higher than RM56.9 million reported for Q4 2009. The higher profit includes gain from the disposal of Tesco Hypermarket in Bukit Indah Johor, an Investment Property of the Group

- The Group’s current quarter profit before taxation is RM101.4 million, which is RM4.8 million lower than the preceding quarter ended 31 July 2010. This was due to higher profit recognised on the disposal of an Investment Property by the Group in Setia Alam in the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4*1.1 = 0.22(assume investment gain only RM6 million), estimate PE on current price 6.34 = 27.91(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0439(after exclude RM48 million other income and used 27% VAT)*4*1.1 = 0.1932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.47/22.31 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1841 (10% increase from 0.1674), estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.06/20.53 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1724 (3% increase from 0.1674), estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.01/20.19 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.25/21.5 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.63/21 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.56/22.81 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.69/16.19 (DPS 0.17)

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