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Sunday, December 19, 2010

KLCI Stock - BHIC / 8133 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)993,830,456 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(4.0-0.06)/0.3718 = 10.60 (Moderate)
Target Price5.21+0.06 = 5.27 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.3718, DPS 0.06)
Revenue and profit largely increased, still negative net cash flow, cash decreased, lower liquidity ratio at low level, higher gearing ratio at high level, receivables collection period and payables period also taking longer, contract received increasing, Patrol Vessels job from government
First Support Price4.0
Second Support Price3.7
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity18.52%
Dividend Yield1.48%
Profit Margin16.26%
Tax Rate18.07%
Asset Turnover0.6548
Net Asset Value Per Share1.69
Net Tangible Asset per share1.67
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.52
Cash Per Share0.1
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4554
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.3898
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0621
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.0419
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4891
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale32.5%
Days to sell the inventory20
Days to collect the receivables345
Days to pay the payables170

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s revenue for the period ended 30 September 2010 has increased 11% compared to the previous year corresponding period. To-date profit after taxation was higher by 6%, from the
preceding year’s corresponding period

- The improved result was mainly due to the revenue from the provision of services for the maintenance of naval vessels. However its contribution to the Group’s earnings was, to some extent, offset by cost escalations from delays in completing certain shipbuilding projects, coupled with a reduced contribution from associates

- For the third quarter, the Group’s revenue stood at RM227.7 million, significantly higher compared to the RM104.5 million achieved in the immediate preceding quarter, while profit before taxation was RM37.0 million compared to RM18.5 million achieved in the second quarter. The increase was mainly due to the revenue for accumulation of work done on naval vessels maintenance

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3098*1.2 = 0.3718, estimate PE on current price 4 = 10.6(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0636*1.1*4 = 0.2798 (10% increase due to many new contract received), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.69/14.44 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0631*4 = 0.2524*0.9 = 0.2272 (10% drop from 0.2524), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.13/15.58 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0749*4 = 0.2996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.75/12.65 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.16 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0709*4 = 0.2836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/16.24 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0616*4 = 0.2464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.99/12.68 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0602*4 = 0.2408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/9.7 (DPS 0.055)

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