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Wednesday, December 29, 2010

KLCI Stock - KGB / 0151 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)50,429,250 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(0.675-0.03)/0.095 = 6.79 (Moderate)
Target Price0.76+0.03 = 0.79 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.095, DPS 0.03)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue second consecutive quarter increasing and is historical highest, eps second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, still no free cash flow and negative net cash flow, cash decreased but still strong, liquidity ratio decreased at moderate level now, gearing ratio increased at moderate level now, all accounting period are increased but still acceptable compared to historical quarter
First Support Price0.665
Second Support Price0.665
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Kenanga Target Price1.04 (2010-09-07)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity19.26%
Dividend Yield4.44%
Profit Margin10.83%
Tax Rate8.73%
Asset Turnover1.1667
Net Asset Value Per Share0.49
Net Tangible Asset per share0.49
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.43
Cash Per Share0.31
Liquidity Current Ratio2.2704
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.2387
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9417
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6893
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.408
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale42.4%
Days to sell the inventory4
Days to collect the receivables158
Days to pay the payables105

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a 29% higher revenue as compared to previous corresponding quarter in 2009 mainly due to the higher revenue contribution from Taiwan and China operations. However, the lower Gross Profit margin of the current quarter mainly due to projects with lower margins

- The Group recorded higher revenue and pbt as compared to the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.095, estimate PE on current price 0.675 = 7.74(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.095, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.63/7.05 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.03*3+0.01 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/6.6 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.03*3+0.01 = 0.1, estimate PE on current price 0.77 = 7.4(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.7/6.65 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/5.8

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