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Saturday, December 18, 2010

KLCI Stock - PARKSON / 5657 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)6,211,873,780 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.68-0.2)/0.3015 = 18.18 (Moderate)
Target Price5.73+0.2 = 5.93 (PE 19.0, EPS 0.3015, DPS 0.2)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 5.6
Revenue and profit higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, good cash flow, better liquidity ratio but still low, better gearing ratio but still high, opening a new mall which going to bring in rental income, RMB against MYR strengthening since Sept 2010
First Support Price5.5
Second Support Price5.4

Research House
OSK Target Price6.67 (2010-12-02)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.57%
Dividend Yield2.82%
Profit Margin25.89%
Tax Rate22.37%
Asset Turnover0.3968
Net Asset Value Per Share1.97
Net Tangible Asset per share0.85
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share6.78
Cash Per Share2.29
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5783
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4619
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.26
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.7738
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5468
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale41.5%
Days to sell the inventory37
Days to collect the receivables53
Days to pay the payables295

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- For the first quarter ended 30 September 2010, the Group achieved healthy same store sales growth (Malaysia: 9%, China: 11% and Vietnam: 20%) and better operating efficiency in the three countries in which it operates. Despite better performance registered in the current quarter under review, the significant weakening of the Chinese Renminbi and Vietnamese Dong against Ringgit Malaysia has resulted in lower results being consolidated into the Group. Hence, revenue was only marginally higher at RM656 million with profit before taxation reported at RM168 million

- Excluding the impact of the currency translation, on a comparable basis, the Group's revenue increased by 11% to RM710 million as compared to the preceding year corresponding period. Accordingly, profit before taxation increased by 20% to RM184 million

- Encouraging same store sales growth coupled with higher spending during the Hari Raya (Muslim festival) in September 2010 has enabled the Group to record favourable performance. Revenue was higher at RM656 million with profit before taxation increasing by 12% to RM168 million compared with the immediate preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3015, estimate PE on current price 5.9 = 18.91(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.17/17.74 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2741*1.1 = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.91/16.42 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2676*1.1 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.48/17.15 (DPS 0.05)

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