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Friday, December 17, 2010

KLCI Stock - XINQUAN / 5155 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)479,434,800 (Small)
Par ValueUSD 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.56-0.05)/0.3797 = 3.98 (Moderate)
Target Price1.90+0.05 = 1.95 (PE 5.0, EPS 0.3797, DPS 0.05)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue and profit higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, good cash flow, good liquidity ratio, low gearing ratio, receivables collection period still acceptable, SSE index increasing, production line increasing, outlet increasing
First Support Price1.5
Second Support Price1.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity31.91%
Dividend Yield3.21%
Profit Margin19.77%
Tax Rate19.22%
Asset Turnover1.3577
Net Asset Value Per Share1.18
Net Tangible Asset per share1.18
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.36
Cash Per Share0.95
Liquidity Current Ratio3.4018
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.2733
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.5157
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3235
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2445
Average working capital per thousand Ringgit sale42.6%
Average days to sell the inventory13
Average days to collect the receivables44

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):
- The Group achieved achieved an increase of 32.3% revenue and 14.6% PBT for the current quarter as compared to the corresponding period in the preceding year

- The increase in revenue and profit due to increase in sales volume of shoe sole and the outdoor sports and leisure product segments, particularly the increase in the sale of shoe soles from approximately 2.9 million pairs in Q1FY2010 to approximately 3.8 million pairs in Q1FY2011 and increase in sale of sports apparels and accessories from approximately 1.3 million units in Q1FY2010 to approximately 2.1 million units in Q1FY2011. Another reason is increase in average selling price of shoe sole from RMB17.2 per pair in Q1FY2010 to RMB18.5 per pair in Q1FY2011 and increase in average selling price of outdoor and indoor sports and leisure shoes from RMB91 per pair in Q1FY2010 to RMB107.8 per pair in Q1FY2011

- Based on the Income Tax Law of the PRC for Enterprises with Foreign Investments and Foreign Enterprises, Addnice Sports, Addnice China and Xingquan Plastic are entitled to full exemption from income tax for the first two years and a 50% reduction in income tax for the next three years starting from their first profitable year of operation. Addnice Sports is exempted from the state corporate income tax for its first two profitable calendar years of operation (1 Jan 06 to 31 Dec 07) and thereafter, is entitled to a 50% relief from the state corporate income tax for the third to fifth consecutive years (1 Jan 08 to 31 Dec 10). Adnice China commenced its 5-year tax holiday from 1 Jan 08. Xingquan Plastic has fully utilized its tax incentives and was subject to the full state corporate income tax

- The Group recorded an increase of 15.8% revenue and 17.7% pbt for Q1FY2011 as compared to Q4FY2010. The increase in revenue was due to the increase in the sales quantity of shoe sole and the apparels and accessories product segments. In addition, the revenue contribution for Q1FY2011 is partly from the Autumm products that have higher selling prices as compared to Summer products. Autumm products such as jackets, sweaters and leather-based shoes generally higher selling prices as compared to Summer products such as T-shirt and shirt

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3452*1.1 = 0.3797, estimate PE on current price 1.6 = 4.08(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.3452*1.1 = 0.3797, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.87/3.56 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.095*4 = 0.38(0.095 is average of recent 2Q minus little eps due to end of tax exemption and reduction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.93/2.91 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1584*2*1.1 = 0.3485, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.77/3 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0834*4 = 0.3336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.2/3.15
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.59/3.03

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