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Thursday, December 9, 2010

KLCI Stock - GAB / 3255 - 2011 Quarter 1


Par Value:0.50

My Forecast P/E now:(9.92-0.45)/0.545 = 17.37 (High)
My Target Price:Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision:NOT BUY
My Comment:Revenue and profit increasing in term of comparing current quarter with preceding year corresponding quarter, receivables increased, better liquidity ratio, strong cash, better gearing ratio, better working capital
Technical Support Price:9
Risk Rating:MODERATE
OSK Target Price:7.97 (04 Nov 10)

Latest Market Capital (Capital Size)2,996,812,160 (Very Large)
Return on Equity35.59%
Dividend Yield4.54%
Profit Margin0.1408
Asset Turnover1.9804
Tax Rate0.2506
Net Asset Value Per Share1.69
Net Tangible Asset per share1.65
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share5.35
Cash Per Share0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio2.7352
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.271
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6081
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4111
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2913
Average working capital per thousand Ringgit sale21.6%
Average days to sell the inventory22
Average days to collect the receivables65

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue for the first quarter ended 30 September 2010 increased by 21.8% as compared to the corresponding period last year. This was primarily due to higher sales resulting from earlier Fiscal Budget speculative purchases

- Group revenue for the quarter under review was higher by 18.8% compared to the preceding quarter. This improved performance is also due to pre-budget speculation

- Profit before tax for the Group for the same quarter was higher by 7.6% compared to the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.545, estimate PE on current price 9.09 = 15.85(DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5054*1.05 = 0.5307 (5% grow from 0.5054, due to next year no more world cup), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.81/14.23 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.517 (10% grow from 0.47), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.99/12.55 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.517, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.17/12.13 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/13.17 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.47/12.9.6 (DPS 0.41)

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