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Saturday, December 22, 2012

KLCI Stock - AFFIN / 5185 - 2012 Quarter 3

AFFIN HOLDINGS BHD


Company Description
Affin Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company. It operates in five segments: Commercial Banking and hire purchase, Islamic Banking, Investment Banking and stock-broking, Money-broking, Fund and unit trusts management. The principal activity of the jointly controlled entities are underwriting of life insurance business and property development while the associate is principally engaged in the underwriting of general insurance business. The Commercial Banking and Hire Purchase segment focuses on business of banking in all aspects which includes Islamic Banking operations. Investment banking segment includes business of a merchant bank, discount house, fund and unit trusts management. Stock-broking segment comprises institutional and retail broking business for securities listed on the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad. The insurance segment includes general and life insurance businesses.

Company Info 
Listing Date1991-11-04
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,051,666,224 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorFinance
Major IndustryBanking
Sub IndustryOther Financial Services
Websitehttp://www.affin.com.my/

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(3.38-0.15)/0.4223 = 7.65 (Moderate)
Target Price4.01+0.15 = 4.16 (PE 9.5, EPS 0.4223, DPS 0.15)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above SMA20 or wait rebound at around SMA100
Comment
Revenue increased 5.1% and is continuous increasing since FY09Q2(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.7%), eps increased 14.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.6%, not enough cash for operating hence increase borrowings and spent 15.2% of Group cash to cover all expenses, total assets indicate Group expand but slower liabilities leverage, interest margin higher than corresponding quarter but still much more lower than earlier years, all division continuing growth
First Support Price3.32
Second Support Price3.2
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price4 (2012-06-25)
Jupiter Target Price3.9 (2012-07-18)
HLG Target Price2.96 (2012-08-23)
Alliance Target Price3.93 (2012-11-20)
CIMB Target Price3.13 (2012-11-20)
MIDF Target Price4.2 (2012-11-20)
RHB Target Price3.6 (2012-11-20)
TA Target Price4.4 (2012-11-20)
Kenanga Target Price4.4 (2012-12-19)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity10.93%
Dividend Yield4.44%
Interest Profit Margin42.4%
Operating Profit Margin28.20%
Net Profit Margin27.41%
Tax Rate23.69%
Asset Turnover0.0534
Net Asset Value Per Share4.05
Net Tangible Asset per share3.38
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.0
Cash Per Share6.71
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1259
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9153
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2112
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio8.0875
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.89
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale203.3%
Days to sell the inventory1711
Days to collect the receivables4139
Days to pay the payables8113

Technical Analysis 
SMA 103.36 (Uptrend)
SMA 203.334 (Uptrend 19 days)
SMA 503.269 (Uptrend)
SMA 1003.294 (Downtrend)
SMA 2003.16 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.028812 ( 0.000387 )
Signal (9)0.027498 ( 0.000328 )
MACD Histogram0.001314 (Bullish trend 2 days)
Bolinger Upper Band3.439
Bolinger Lower Band3.229

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt mainly due to the increase in other operating income, net interest income and Islamic banking income and higher share of profits in associate

- Lower pbt from Investment Banking segment than FY11Q3 mainly due to the allowance for loan impairment of RM4.1 mil as compared to a write-back of RM18.3 mil

- Higher pbt from Insurance segment mainly due to higher earned premium from motor, fire and health classes of insurance, as well as the release of Unearned Premium Reserve (UPR) of RM52.3 mil due to the change in basis of UPR computation from policy booking dates and 1/24 method to policy inception dates and 1/365 method during the year

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 0.4022*1.05 = 0.4223, estimate PE on current price 3.38 = 7.65(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 5892892*0.1/1494576 = 0.3943, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.78/7.81 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 5758289*0.1/1494576 = 0.3853, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.53/7.5 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 5592224*0.1/1494576 = 0.3742, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.23/7.3 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3377*1.05 = 0.3546, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.94/7.39 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.071+0.0898)*2*1.05 = 0.3377, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.21/6.4 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.071+0.077)*2 = 0.296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.76/9.8 (DPS 0.09)

AFFIN latest news (English)

AFFIN latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateinte_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-11-1920123N/AN/A0.152.89%8.38%77304022285992119066144541617084685610.10820.313555049366534771344899163647498743-6057730190201112503130275396751181776980147422782008911494576149457650367212012-09-3042.4%28.20%27.41%23.69%0.0534-4.053.381.06.711.12590.91530.21128.08750.89203.3%171141398113
2012-08-17201223.613.23-2.52%5.49%73567414583461954804029321408283068530.09420.205354652398530890814875950647047266-5892892177527516724930272896751181942524163979680353221494576149457653057442012-06-3043.8%27.85%26.57%27.96%0.0521-3.943.271.096.691.12840.91190.21278.27430.8922212.1%182242078406
2012-05-25201213.793.01-2.97%2.97%7226727226722139442138431660251660250.11110.111156639452546181795088116348967739-57582895476161126877302382967511857926127687993982391494576149457644986732012-03-3142.4%28.10%29.60%22.40%0.0487-3.853.180.957.811.11540.8850.23858.83620.8983204.6%208841739055
2012-02-20201143.22.85-2.55%9.77%70981626602431746747028111325435079950.08870.339953736054520953644814383047011242-559222411416491404794186386320851001170104303396751181494576149457647079142011-12-3142.6%25.54%24.61%24.12%0.04969.26763.743.061.037.651.10810.89710.24318.60910.8959190.9%187642038882
2011-11-18201133.292.740.122.60%7.22%68012119504272162305283551351983754520.09050.251250947044491633804536064044069090-558640438177513774174802862119155195137714982440421494576149457643342702011-09-3041.8%32.24%31.79%37.47%0.0505-3.743.060.956.511.11560.8890.22098.11980.8903197.9%194841558589
2011-08-15201123.22.25-2.58%4.62%64849512732701779423177781341872402540.08980.160849409220474629864396667242539884-5442548446327113190917480286211911578236140343472177571494576149457646780222011-06-3046.3%28.61%27.44%24.59%0.0504-3.642.971.055.571.11570.87150.19588.07830.8898197.6%204441928367
2011-05-24201113.572.99-2.04%2.04%6247756247751403021401111060671060670.07100.071048748170467527954345497942434309-52931918254811326389100884862119150090860179280193991494576149457652310162011-03-3146.3%23.36%22.46%24.40%0.0488-3.542.871.225.621.10180.85540.19798.20960.8914181.6%214642648712
2011-02-24201043.623.15-2.67%10.32%62054422729951567026321121265724886250.08470.327047003908452330614180287540649144-5201033254509585416224561746512459679245743486320851494570149443949021892010-12-3147.1%24.39%25.25%19.23%0.048410.03173.482.81.176.01.11280.88610.22068.03740.8893201.7%203843258993
2010-11-26201033.733.080.092.43%7.65%59782116524511491974761201150153620530.07700.242344969951428731153980090338743528-51690481339148256263400761746511595411159140477660551494570149443947377862010-09-3050.8%25.64%24.96%22.91%0.0481-3.462.781.145.421.10660.88370.20927.69990.8851190.9%199844038944
2010-08-20201023.313.03-2.36%5.22%53460510546301543113270081117062470380.07480.165342803957407632173775594236731075-50480152050684667464225617465167181466758968422401494374149437345578402010-06-3052.6%28.00%28.86%27.61%0.0485-3.382.71.134.81.10980.88080.19517.47940.8821194.4%204544178922
2010-05-31201013.132.9-2.86%2.86%5200255200251773231773231353321353320.09060.090640830616388200483590025735022777-493035918854179507895266617465160653751127166859221494317149431743335192010-03-3154.5%32.47%34.10%23.68%0.0497-3.32.621.114.681.10840.87940.19987.28150.8792187.1%197342628607
2010-02-25200943.292.63-1.91%8.43%5104092008858114002493752841703718430.05630.248839954143379245913521885434256574-473528915960411833947399986681254323790663789261746511494367149436739451282009-12-3158.5%22.27%22.34%26.17%0.050310.60973.172.481.064.331.10710.84920.18897.43750.8815182.6%213141028263
2009-11-20200932.682.270.0852.41%6.52%50886714984491399823797501062682876730.07110.192538745123366654193401578533145076-47293381459292109183340000068125433674593254167800021494367149436735565932009-09-3057.9%27.62%27.51%24.08%0.0519-3.162.480.964.791.10620.87010.2167.19250.8779175.1%189539268021
2009-08-20200922.661.85-2.04%4.11%490606989582122911239868898171814050.06010.121437385945353144213278807531718904-4597870249170452707200000681254320353740353764090061494367149436727645782009-06-3056.9%25.09%25.05%26.93%0.054-3.082.390.774.491.11340.89030.21167.13110.877178.1%163738837329
2009-05-15200912.041.61-2.08%2.08%49897649897612026512026591588915880.06130.061337275600351136043276298131985677-451261913038551036815000006812543140753690753677200791494371149437124806552009-03-3149.6%23.73%24.10%23.84%0.0555-3.022.330.715.351.09780.89290.25017.26030.8789151.3%144736227051
2009-02-24200841.861.23-1.99%6.91%5125752115438115570401821841072927620.05630.195836828131345994633241682631056786-441130512287071922427829483387681247931152622568125431494367149486219127892008-12-3147.8%23.76%22.55%27.22%0.05746.53582.952.260.575.141.11410.89180.24757.34860.8802167.5%148734456680
2008-11-18200831.531.220.051.27%4.92%516630160286375167286281538952086550.03610.139737025743349150593263992731327232-43858162051358266022300283387682054018227702060617481493693149369318969902008-09-3045.2%15.20%14.55%28.30%0.0578-2.942.240.574.681.11450.8710.22317.44220.8815167.6%158534436490
2008-08-14200821.91.14-1.47%3.65%539071108623389059211114623651547600.04180.103737231872352475263289899331500736-4332879244547325921223002833876857046834746686862341492338149233828354422008-06-3046.0%17.72%16.52%29.97%0.0591-2.92.210.866.441.11890.91510.3057.59290.8836170.3%129831716356
2008-05-15200812.141.66-2.18%2.18%54716254716212441412441492395923950.06190.061937334115352944843299608531623681-43380306641053899721898278338768105407786425092030181492338149233830294462008-03-3144.8%22.90%22.74%25.74%0.0595-2.912.210.926.941.11610.91720.32757.60620.8838165.2%126530476350
2008-02-29200742.261.920.031.63%7.24%537541218487370595350621567952517730.03900.189936132882340667383189590430314993-4236978100384494129242677770234639374563642283387681455182132608432596072007-12-3146.1%15.56%13.13%19.55%0.060511.7983.22.410.936.841.12380.90630.32827.5280.8827171.7%133029166110
2007-11-23200732.782.040.021.73%5.61%576811164733284651280111600391949780.04630.151835975953340103613227207730527093-370387685612103965012238177023461125262100288187052271295757128467733171372007-09-3042.3%15.70%14.68%29.07%0.0601-2.882.071.247.841.11410.91520.33278.71310.897161.0%126629886361
2007-08-29200723.082.54-2.08%3.88%5609621070521108878195460724271349390.05530.103638015986361101833437538832539020-3640598241612810012031338207702346341733132835111098585713103651302521N/A2007-06-3038.6%19.26%19.41%33.48%0.0417-2.81.99N/A9.611.10980.92680.3879.44220.9042225.0%172040219393
2007-05-1420071N/AN/A-1.80%1.80%509559509559888478884762512625120.04850.048536823139348901333323575631454130-35873831165619223816117474770234694180382432985266751289158128915830295212007-03-3139.2%18.30%17.44%29.64%0.0279-2.781.971.198.151.10920.88410.3349.26460.9026334.9%3189611914164
2007-02-2620064N/AN/A0.03N/AN/A5164981988029119204310579962642269180.07670.182935483992335892763200714930094003-347684342008612161944091333262044417055437614277023461254878124087724093652006-12-3140.0%23.66%23.08%19.24%0.014610.49932.81.960.987.081.11610.88870.29519.20580.902676.7%63371255027855

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Land held for sales (A-0)Other assets (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Deposits with licensed banks (A-1)Derivative financial assets (A-1)Financial assets held-for-trading (A-1)Financial investments available-for-sale (A-1)Financial investments held-to-maturity (A-1)Loans, advances & financing (A-1)Statutory deposits with Bank Negara Malaysia (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Other liabilities (L-0)Bills payables (L-1)Deposits & placements of banks & other financial institutions (L-1)Deposits from customers (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Obligations on securities sold under repurchase agreements (L-1)Provision for taxation (L-1)Recourse obligations on loans sold to Cagamas Berhad (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)
201234371008056181497128443-7336718043267226820089135364426765601506100893290746120583308879314017791940261569697239850479913604251039874152554764418-63793417329187627
201221991010076178263116068-763141823976722581196903488845725637899-95706086143533250387314279532553362101397237371885411588655493364054730792098-68900421071252668
201211311011340175512117016-5375231797516721494779943157582695557256280700103728076260493115423213737043496932799397202791340457118270665564045576459409-47127424777342924
201144701013419155548115430-17717417864967257974030830445279458470231498329122892650923304368461410141160239207296696454422148205968670473936341496954-16401428459156908
201139301008543153129108931-3294881826436631183337525451824347483791-93375336501452913859311593979586615519666310609721161383467904638693932120290-20646277996115797
2011277081009490154698105843-4887501797456631072882218853316391433861159734953656085284228758779711302482841666631073206214892258921863602962855505-6362280826126455
20111153771009655154116109953-52751917875590624809103779706328324313989921741530842273199522736733692411823239062461181413717867997533478969156842-5736283618361491
20104101801011867152779113311-3058131768979062486733417629118088432541498538528907533458265740662751672700122508239062473802511016168376313309843257560-188286370258802
2010395006101353715032310575527332539178165705906247824868401322381-9971806045856359825736002279630265451166390624666585114528597679232014752--91264289085257107
201024351101462014483710852661332535550171524906246901053919007017-6982677640845768672489035125801811347727000390624607243115483516578531009647--38324291763110073
201015607101976513514411260562354499547175546-6740156964051817-1373974276237042352276625631118144927176300000550304112847518090829230463--34785294523169251
2009457430102333012922810764262354452794196774-622354418756181724315150000816666451821622496936244982793611763000006621049426551470942859925141684-273429721674330
2009359029102791912184810554566247512695186421-682860247194102800-42729846752727921535970228043970222424300000568285118523414116828620186--2230914861894272
2009269480103313312028210545766571483867192734-6466690509131800-70652437155022421299223244096177034975500000568196124473313411928108014--55430150000146868
2009164715103567211820310372585269556398198014-775983647733--9504259088565496102047730324044534779152620000057577886330456759727248537--52320-30893
200846393810377021136619603087412626772203153-685160241465--403813589660860266519927677835628400051257700000658783136243388870726934976--488311108836941
200836136210389951169399913081512508291204455-610171210733313328-1194818580804662758119260418874981926842363700000612332112964504114325147300--8113224103920590
200825148910347921152109374981620383983223503-872597810419336062-37300254235136252291825834684442985677436370000069789490411434171126114975--6224731060860332
200814042210376071123359766181620442967227019-925213995636292080-3279245307319652619177492128117278058282979700000669425157836410437526322706--51032186617801115
200743287110369291099769733092835470044226159-838611372834721548-2803265868465443307172776398416471748594316900000676595126697407907425558739--25317361510163656
2007342148104093310949810749199324324473241725-876441773280576943-63940446163768147291688471381387782662217268102000070771691728338478425815567--32924430878771212
20072535891043362107952107403100814249516243167-1104124078838750751-49930645464269079641676817680122071626233182102000078318678415412736925647998-150897524626517556634081
2007167975104490099806107250100814262896249365-85865151014321142180-4882485401385119313116470803776986729453309861020000730640112170117975326842776-2096505-567340655586
2006487430104814898342107913100814223319228750-7734134104196326482-5338055245310106597217356971820755401651228091162644727693281177135152725688093-17603135457637758369678

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesImpairment lossNet income from Islamic banking businessWrite back/(Allowances) for losses on loans, advance & financingZakatProfit equalisation reserveGain/loss on dilution of equity investment in associateShare of net profit of jointly controlled entityInterest incomeInterest expense
201237730404981410717116415170098389233511177638384--751537790309639
2012273567448261102549802417315517103034836224466391--856524001294495
2012172267247818934295022172664195679690470264134101--673518447298609
20114709816419136886846431633092961875226815872218204-28524659301114
20113680121753796906690651624791969705077950246565370-1916505824294184
2011264849543480499978833165846517191461671014275134-3124486234260911
201116247753404437308053116712714518004675527057191--3354458349246316
2010462054429420381099987165170124940464449632867710-5017421444045235104
20103597821340973781868411675832961379545247303148527103238438477215889
201025346053797933127275615749922904414453819192462627179622319397407188490
201015200254199120938815314990955041044350212435---5059365880166442
20094510409298322087949981558594062568342630861640776-1632380997158036
20093508867336142212842731524911566492842119402021002845-88360667151743
200924906062978640097656315121320792373397903781233083621-1732354818153043
200914989762867727236239814493145429043809820887---45372173187546
200845125753143328043765714435631823192401871959030--3100401371209465
20083516630212722825577961455311729415637405469420--2259398192218242
20082539071243352895815071465982875284134511549182359--6462387397209199
2008154716232019358888485151096235940953603118204---331389061214870
2007453754113715627382728154479339897633425254230850-10161401950216827
200735768112461275578587216745715461338032229288390290-88430347248488
2007256096234186748293082127875814615739296843042022651008-153410313251992
200715095592633581277213513149843846073306131494-797-663388468236015
20064516498214418933110623125789934918099331773554914990-3437394343236481

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentInvestment BankingCommercial Banking
2012347131529584612699010
2012246751705580465667589
2012147281734479392655896
201142537452373246638556
201133797151978151594918
201125014665077757572374
201114560288967611555493
201044175238567136551618
201034286242368305527653
201023548165048506484201
201012381129963172455771
200941848321156117455655
200931868369962972447726
200921878341257558434582
200911982438154108447267
2008436271163140056480523
200833518333145714470729
200824204159639970496493
20081352091458882485674
200743088280060671476582
200733601166875953498925
20072367287570096488069
20071315798777830429559
20064710121085728428850

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentInvestment BankingCommercial Banking
201238891159426951178920
201229221153917433175964
201219031142224956166293
20114706104748452164789
201131289878941485167934
201121100652021593157117
20111753459017325123435
20104576455418363129167
20103597429428521119999
20102521390812309133744
20101483318927881138994
20094334317011463101186
20093325319619768118907
2009290334716933104523
20091402255216399100531
20084995290417779137042
2008359224251916397107
200821338264118861112315
20081602278515384108164
2007490543153989462670
20073836954877082292
2007217452107120101105815
2007117922176772320971226
2006448433705437667926

Financial Quarter Segments Associate
yearqrtOthersInsurance
20123754718
2012241895
201213720277
20114-478
20113-3885
20112-2607
20111-1903
20104-8670
20103-277
20102-29
20101-10563
20094-2430
20093-1654
20092-3811
20091-4587
20084-3418
20083-530
20082-3587
20081-2690
20074-6763
20073-1634
20072-8299
20071-3721
20064-5912

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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