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Friday, December 7, 2012

KLCI Stock - LPI / 8621 - 2012 Quarter 3

LPI CAPITAL BERHAD


Company Description
LPI CAPITAL BERHAD is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. It operates through three business segments: general insurance, engaged in underwriting of all classes of general insurance business; investment holding, engaged in investment holding operations, and financing of leases, which is engaged in providing financing for leases. The Company's general insurance business operates in two principal geographical areas: Malaysia and Singapore, while its investment holding and financing of leases business segments operates only in Malaysia. LPI’s wholly owned subsidiaries include Lonpac Insurance Bhd, which is engaged in underwriting of general insurance, London & Pacific Holdings Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in investment holding, and Public United Leasing & Factoring Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in financing of leases.

Company Info
Listing Date1993-01-08
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,032,138,526 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorFinance
Major IndustryUnderwriting of General Insurance
Sub IndustryInvestment Holding
Websitehttp://www.lonpac.com

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(13.7-0.65)/0.7572 = 17.23 (Moderate)
Target Price14.01+0.65 = 14.66 (PE 18.5, EPS 0.7572, DPS 0.65)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain above SMA20 or wait rebound around at SMA200
Comment
Revenue increased 1.2% and was fourth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.5%), eps decreased 12.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.8%, not enough cash for operating expenses hence increased borrowing and spent 30.9% of Group cash to cover all expenses, operating profit improved to 23% which is slightly lower than highest of 24% only, General insurance segment growth, investment holding segment still got high dividend income
First Support Price13.6
Second Support Price13.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price14.82 (2012-10-12)
HwangDBS Target Price15.7 (2012-10-31)
Kenanga Target Price16.1 (2012-10-31)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.51%
Dividend Yield4.74%
Operating Profit Margin23.14%
Net Profit Margin23.04%
Tax Rate19.35%
Asset Turnover0.376
Net Asset Value Per Share5.52
Net Tangible Asset per share5.52
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.45
Cash Per Share1.72
Liquidity Current Ratio5.6204
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.7592
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.3997
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2008
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5456
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale124.3%
Days to sell the inventory229
Days to collect the receivables221
Days to pay the payables103

Technical Analysis
SMA 1013.56 (Uptrend)
SMA 2013.603 (Downtrend 9 days)
SMA 5013.586 (Uptrend)
SMA 10013.537 (Uptrend)
SMA 20013.487 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.006685 ( 0.010002 )
Signal (9)-0.015879 ( 0.002298 )
MACD Histogram0.009194 (Bullish trend 2 days)
Bolinger Upper Band13.897
Bolinger Lower Band13.309

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 mainly driven by higher gross earned premium. The increase in gross earned premium is in line with the Group’s strategic plan in growing the profitable insurance business. The significant growth in gross earned premium has in turn translated into better underwriting results offset by lower dividend income was received

- Higher pbt than FY12Q2 mainly due to higher investment income received

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 0.7211*1.05 = 0.7572, estimate PE on current price 13.7 = 17.23(DPS 0.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.7097*1.02 = 0.7239, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.25/17.12 (DPS 0.65)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.7013, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.78/17.64 (DPS 0.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1785*4*1.05 = 0.7497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.81/16.77 (DPS 0.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.2048+0.1426)*2 = 0.6948, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.94/15.98 (DPS 0.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1754+0.1426)*2*1.05 = 0.6678, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.22/16.05 (DPS 0.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1754*4*1.1 = 0.7718, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.19/16.65 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.6383*1.1 = 0.7021, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.27/17.73 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1685*4*1.05 = 0.7077, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.57/15.42 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.46/15.5 (DPS 0.5125)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.76 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.0533(15% grow from 0.9159), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.94/11.53 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.0253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/11.16 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.0204, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.43/10.25 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.88/8.63 (DPS 0.85)

LPI latest news (English)

LPI latest news (Chinese)


Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateoper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-10-0920123N/AN/A-4.03%10.12%25630776739759062151414476321195400.21620.5426267717515223741460732270867-121644311475720251502014166111127323746937914222030922030929741712012-09-3023.14%23.04%19.35%0.376-5.525.522.451.725.62043.75921.39971.20080.5456124.3%229221103
2012-07-092012213.8613.040.153.42%6.09%265029511090545319235240431719080.18350.3264259646714682181429451277544-1167016680241257117155416613667675038836622522030922030930226392012-06-3020.60%20.58%25.86%0.38-5.35.32.591.665.293.551.31951.22490.5505120.7%224219108
2012-04-092012113.9213.12-2.66%2.66%246061246061378213782131477314770.14290.1429250686213876401388823261254-111803937120345117155415412367758038033503222030922030930799192012-03-3115.48%15.37%16.77%0.3732-5.075.072.761.525.31153.52041.28241.24220.554120.4%228217108
2012-01-092011414.113.320.53.39%13.32%23932390272951999200053393341544940.17850.7013240521513109301223631214991-11815841217362481670176008621842118543841542422030922028930490762011-12-3121.11%21.73%24.36%0.375319.73415.365.362.581.896.09764.19421.93231.03560.5087121.4%21218586
2011-10-062011313.8611.8-3.89%9.93%23628166340655948148054451161151600.20480.5228237537213534771300376245503-107499612064923941670176008611182554876255209922030622028225952042011-09-3023.75%23.68%19.36%0.3595-4.884.882.412.515.51313.65312.24881.20970.5474129.7%25313659
2011-07-072011214.211.420.252.71%6.04%213797427125419719210631418700440.14260.3180240546613607921257778265912-1147688105445148599001601051103960495960601022026922026930397122011-06-3019.80%19.63%25.14%0.3377-5.215.212.652.755.11753.5452.2791.09590.5229134.8%24414067
2011-04-072011113.8213.4-3.33%3.33%213328213328501355013538626386260.17540.1754226398512444541159386235053-1104599521841407115001599876507776422453565222026922026930309012011-03-3123.61%23.50%22.96%0.3412-5.015.012.752.435.29443.72492.27891.04960.5121130.7%22714964
2011-01-112010414.0813.00.454.09%15.27%19063575172649025180960368271375610.16720.6367224646212481431086220216624-11602423809965507423022035537548937971960007422026921606030617392010-12-3024.59%25.72%24.88%0.334721.8325.375.372.592.725.76184.13392.77010.93620.4835137.2%22413144
2010-10-072010314.2211.28-4.02%11.21%19459156132747445132172362051009710.16850.470520897981109942993254158607-109654435853041361541521896935439436980958877821490021460125272242010-09-3024.19%24.38%23.69%0.3542-5.115.112.30.046.99814.85570.05970.90580.4753128.5%22037561
2010-07-082010218.311.520.12.94%7.19%173869366736358968472726444647660.19210.47041889560964017949088165172-94047234012028806678821877333724027045248922513766913766922412512010-06-3020.53%20.65%26.33%0.3981-6.836.832.380.085.83643.98430.06961.00920.5023106.2%18531458
2010-04-082010116.2813.82-4.25%4.25%192867192867488314883138322383220.27840.27841821902917070921576162624-90032685927106756788219763848602807224783513766813766818998182010-03-3125.22%25.32%21.52%0.4088-6.546.542.110.075.63923.88560.06271.02360.5058101.3%16530549
2010-01-072009414.312.820.41259.61%34.66%17888369846246520161335349711260880.25400.915918945061043710993833227110-9006732532053202006449436225288527294922141313766813766819466252009-12-3125.53%26.01%24.83%0.402615.43866.546.542.161.614.59563.30960.97491.10340.5246107.1%15824327
2009-10-082009314.312.18-9.04%25.05%2066255838784258411481532897911170.23900.66191467880134379663940191649-8039405300301100521403756014451958613766913766916823152009-09-308.50%20.61%22.75%0.4776-5.845.842.090.070.70120.70120.050.82590.4523-8.2%-6550
2009-07-062009212.411.20.26256.25%16.01%166346377253299947223122742582200.16520.42291402730129663661565199037-74116530240105926086136522918130951055713766913766915831932009-06-301.04%18.03%24.18%0.4891-5.385.382.140.080.65150.65150.0530.89260.4716-10.1%-6349
2009-04-082009111.59.3-9.75%9.75%210907210907422374223735478354780.25770.2577119521213242854808389373-647129572882575679413267570312371350413766913766912527872009-03-3110.89%20.03%16.00%0.5556-4.74.71.940.11.48171.48170.15110.84690.45866.5%-6545
2009-01-082008410.38.30.558.84%28.17%11713063872844517141564326901042470.23750.757285620110143449246061548-3637411218893799112086707311809060041307713767013767013491662008-12-310.71%38.01%26.57%0.74612.9422.642.643.710.091.6481.6480.21251.35390.57526.2%-5029
2008-10-09200839.97.95-7.09%19.34%191728521598353799704726236715570.19060.519886051512143652951678620-33099912677025921120767208124178121021931013767113767113904772008-09-307.31%18.45%25.84%0.7272-2.42.44.210.141.54461.54460.24561.59980.61536.8%-6045
2008-07-092008211.59.90.34.84%12.25%144308329870243086166817906453210.13010.329285264911380751753288735-3351178560412588151375198434628331035213767113767115281482008-06-301.11%16.84%26.34%0.6921-2.432.434.570.081.28251.28250.11671.54430.6074.2%-6450
2008-04-092008112.310.8-7.41%7.41%185562185562373603736027415274150.19910.199178027912395246480450904-315475880244798150259738754560431201613767213767215419262008-03-3112.17%20.13%26.62%0.7479-2.292.294.890.092.4352.4350.23611.47330.595712.5%-7030
2008-01-142007412.910.50.86.36%22.15%1041475516243487712176625210877700.18310.63757923899294942238847142-370001124840118921135986605112948650595513767213767217209002007-12-313.45%33.49%27.72%0.696219.60692.692.694.650.041.97171.97170.12631.14160.53318.3%-5823
2007-10-092007312.510.9-5.43%15.79%156083447477298308688921521625600.15630.454478260611311843737056411-34523613208711486113598660512060170031360813767213767215556932007-09-306.68%19.11%27.85%0.7-2.512.514.50.12.00522.00520.24121.26690.558910.4%-6638
2007-07-0420072N/AN/A0.33.84%10.36%137785291394217115705915211410390.11040.297978216111845742783370904-35432886250576822435877856743431930813778013778015569142007-06-303.04%15.76%29.94%0.5009-2.572.574.40.071.67071.67070.13131.20740.54712.1%-10263
2007-04-0520071N/AN/A-6.52%6.52%153609153609353483534825828258280.18720.187273099211767438959249179-34140083855350805546470835052951942113793513793513586592007-03-3110.82%23.01%26.93%0.3474-2.482.483.970.072.39282.39280.19161.14120.53327.0%-15670
2007-01-0320064N/AN/A0.8N/AN/A1003554734903529111048225423781280.18430.56647546907600235845643542-396234829645411758444884775531709659313793513793512896922006-12-319.97%35.17%27.96%0.13316.50742.872.873.260.051.74551.74550.15140.90470.47532.3%-252145

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAvailable-for-sale financial assets (A-0)Held-to-maturity financial assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Deferred acquisition cost (A-1)Insurance receivables (A-1)Loan receivables (A-1)Reinsurance assets (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Insurance contract liabilities (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Financial liabilities (L-1)Insurance payables (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)
20123837498278649128301378312041379142-281961558174550955041241030118883511971-11322232500113174
20122802098286952132921378312124366225-282521633954274184829281033115087412733-12701232500105299
20121795025286184125041344812061335032-2802816609639055046793495311266166539-11728832500104927
20114779435276131127651344812506415424462831810508735284940920689010077509975-6133339500104183
2011371196127611912706116409469552099-2732711151020591545662672610541471080688592855113950021094
2011277583923578511997116899364606010-258161246741861664181261042990824958089138954785300018716
2011176515422114511847113999986535652-25086137236177571368909950923383607188465917013700011816
2010475970220588511975114479310600074-25244799061902853526341008868588583489448560685288012394
2010375443319584011903901686649473--959316647403397989808336672002-685746288025151
20102716245180479119678977787511500--936245529683059258347830825797-750686288021427
20101701271175657120059173672610203--1167365049602851718137581394495-701797288015070
200946502741725151223094876290221413-22544699044377932920565577661661010093441375057288013184
200931306086-12373862564179586--10141723376--47229119502--8288089267
200921245883-122698554636110557--9596023146--46252829427--8288086730
200911033678-1222610982589813504--9715821766--45871012446---76927
20084725903-1148210947643513077--6073527622--43091214138-34422-12988
20083711656-1097310382606819310--8217319953--4508966963---71657
20082712802-1021910311551010352--8358719868--42879712573---76162
20081630940-99469990545112016--9221619720--4139006740---44164
20074673271-10424999057555955--6802918965--37524614561---32581
20073643747-108338547636113608--8270216808-3643805954134---52277
20072648346--836869909308--9202517124-3783565518205---62699
20071597339--851674639421--9105417199-3783400355841---43338
20064662145--854679976593--5048218927-3923145227656---35886

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesInvestment gain/lossUnearned premium reservesUnderwriting surplus before management expensesManagement expenses for underwrittenManagement expenses for investmentInvestment income from underwriting surplusGross written premiumsChange in unearned premiums provision ceded to reinsurersGross written premiums ceded to reinsurersRealised gains and lossesFair value gains and lossesGross claims paidClaims ceded to reinsurersGross change in contract liabilitiesChange in contract liabilities ceded to reinsurersCommission incomeCommission expense
2012325630711430337125830463981986216713----2531581342910313810-74771208682124677652066931387
2012226502914100334110825896267816111596----268464118201202032-8240023164933516801867529046
201212460616344394885296151212390975432----2975844096112640859-817272524043433177661861830313
201142393231266541128802348684834133896----1970862325463598418081127915175912501241661911327767
2011323628110832445782252142711934214889----2318281995836650-750292262248921367341777227235
20112213797105534256962568654730418803----225296892386735131-733641989645723389211733325847
2011121332811509577712251403552554165915----2537023042999615150-980194115810636139271421323568
2010419063512198-3058213179707313980----169582549951875421577348220722488992771225023121
2010319459111240-816241913662035522361----196524958767760239-711992124930296248101229922993
201021738699452-279022272198519614570----1831676674613490-791492312713908156471240322058
2010119286710509-481242611882832542204----206658179407598487-860053055824217251283521270
2009417888311549-17541898612484524462----149498131804509352862621560566249766712101133622480
200932066259687-721-30116847-408911986315305217-----------
200921663467252-1556-297166-454662040410633976-----------
200912109076759-697-34222268-28973185648879408-----------
2008411713011827-1413-311584-547091568312895640-----------
200831917289143-631-23413393-31773185923598299-----------
200821443086402-1303-72295-35065166701254368-----------
200811855629945-962-2021622-207951639542010816-----------
200741041479667-3231-8364-42327146461063699-----------
200731560838309-765--9660-26817162491008937-----------
200721377856500-2159--2030-2808914978784489-----------
200711536099520-455--16164-233201544939511253-----------
200641003559868-1743--8266-31391134271287446-----------

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtInvestment holdingGeneral insurance
2012311497244810
20122298264731
2012116048230013
20114190238853
2011311401224984
20112595213294
2011119412194000
2010464214110397
2010339430202522
20102353188086
2010123539169328
2009437591114190
2009316823189802
2009280445166204
2009122239188668
20084624117754
2008313353178375
20082233144074
2008121517164044
20074203103942
200739500146581
200721871135912
2007116006137601
20064810592248

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtElimination/AdjustmentInvestment holdingGeneral insurance
20123-3991049152
20122-125055781
20121-13413123690
20114-131653315
20113-6589446054
20112-86742838
20111-1760032578
20104630006237249765
20103250003787134574
20102-118237078
20101-2180727024
20094600005837248148
20093-1529327291
200921138265657987241
20091-2135320885
20084-191346119
20083-1299422151
20082-14324127
20081-2109816282
20074-10134770
20073-940020428
20072-179819916
20071-1561419735
20064-798027312

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING



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