Sponsor by Innity

Sponsor by cwyeoh

Sponsor by Nuffnang

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

KLCI Stock - PETDAG / 5681 - 2012 Quarter 3

PETRONAS DAGANGAN BERHAD


Company Description
PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad is engaged in the domestic marketing of petroleum products. The Company is the principal domestic marketing arm of Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS), the national oil company, which holds 69.86% of the Company’s equity. The Company markets a range of petroleum products, including motor gasoline, aviation fuel, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, bunker fuel, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and asphalt. It markets its products throughout the country, directly to customers, as well as through its network of service stations, LPG dealers and industrial dealers.

Company Info
Listing Date1994-03-08
Market Capital (Capital Size)23,644,205,200 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryMarketing of Petroleum Products
Sub IndustryAviation Fueling
Websitehttp://www.mymesra.com.my/

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(23.8-1.1)/0.8879 = 25.57 (Moderate)
Target Price23.26+1.1 = 24.36 (PE 26.2, EPS 0.8879, DPS 1.1)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above SMA20 or rebound around SMA50
Comment
Revenue increased 0.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.5%, eps increased 41.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.4%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, balance sheet assets indicate largely expand the business, operating margin is as usual, liquidity ratio indicate can meet current obligation, gearing ratio indicate higher leverage mainly through payables to generate more income, all accounting turnover period is good which can generate cash, all segment business growth
First Support Price23.0
Second Support Price22.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price26 (2012-11-30)
HwangDBS Target Price16.15 (2012-11-30)
TA Target Price20.6 (2012-11-30)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity18.50%
Dividend Yield4.62%
Operating Profit Margin4.57%
Net Profit Margin4.55%
Tax Rate28.17%
Asset Turnover2.8468
Net Asset Value Per Share4.84
Net Tangible Asset per share4.84
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.69
Cash Per Share0.72
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2063
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9949
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1379
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.1308
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5289
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale3.6%
Days to sell the inventory14
Days to collect the receivables55
Days to pay the payables63

Technical Analysis
SMA 1023.15 (Same)
SMA 2023.028 (Uptrend 19 days)
SMA 5022.327 (Uptrend)
SMA 10022.087 (Uptrend)
SMA 20020.642 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.361194 ( 0.024975 )
Signal (9)0.305709 ( 0.013871 )
MACD Histogram0.055485 (Bullish trend 4 days)
Bolinger Upper Band24.772
Bolinger Lower Band21.284

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to higher average product selling prices, higher sales volume and increase in Mean Of Platts Singapore (“MOPS”) prices which had resulted in an increase in average margin

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 882104/993454 = 0.8879, estimate PE on current price 23.8 = 25.57(DPS 1.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 863340/993454 = 0.869, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.2/22.92 (DPS 1.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 900744*1.1/993454 = 0.9973, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.98/18.31 (DPS 1.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q7 result announced = 4811964*0.185/993454 = 0.8961, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.02/18.52 (DPS 1.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = 0.4356*2 = 0.8712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.71/17.62 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.2101+0.23)*2 = 0.8802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.04/16.64 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.23*4*1.05 = 0.966, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.69/15.06 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.03 = 0.852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.79/11.98 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7579*1.05 = 0.7958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.2/11.96 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.7579*0.95 = 0.72(5% drop due to lower gross profit compared to the preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.81/11.26 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.63/10.84 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)

PETDAG latest news (English)

PETDAG latest news (Chinese)


Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateoper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-11-2920123N/AN/A0.1755.03%13.67%7489941218269623404949144152428116603450.24440.664710274629624071154347105173595340014839919199426129293314580024701831701328243326713509993454993454225514052012-09-304.57%4.55%28.17%2.8468-4.844.844.690.721.20630.99490.13791.13080.52893.6%145563
2012-08-162012223.021.020.1753.55%8.64%7484266143370212342375739211713264175350.17250.420395880545513717460155043479193222549865042029517200660123311147018318288575957461065929993454993454227500962012-06-303.14%3.13%26.14%3.0314-4.994.994.591.071.26811.05750.24520.92880.47994.0%124455
2012-05-212012123.0219.360.1755.10%5.10%685275568527553396863396862462112462110.24780.24789456516545493645084314250891347374948085109267492970703506470183999704296198766381993454993454193524832012-03-315.03%4.96%27.03%3.0794-4.954.953.940.771.28321.02470.18030.91760.47684.1%144548
2012-02-242011719.9417.70.54.83%14.25%7422923222677933077248989252217596545330.22320.658898011795771395498921547351263306448119646439682906023785441026209934570556026470183993454993454178821722011-12-314.20%4.15%27.51%2.9232-4.814.813.740.471.21880.99420.09931.0440.5093.6%145448
2011-11-232011619.1816.20.154.88%9.42%7304943148448703003935912002240464327720.22550.43568807527486824140995133854558391114708014857741595621164091026209245336361745664464993454993454162529072011-09-304.14%4.11%24.86%3.0837-4.74.73.480.671.2631.02690.17240.8780.46553.7%134447
2011-08-102011518.415.50.154.54%4.54%753992775399272908092908092087282087280.21010.210190819895150989404088438109343742950411055547794073300171026209149550119533906676993454993454164317292011-06-303.87%3.86%27.61%2.7914-5.045.043.280.911.35161.08510.23790.80760.44495.3%154656
2011-05-242011418.915.40.64.97%18.93%63826652326764831554112089112284568697280.23000.8755848473245277123654138345550935646483059410439383070416231599124717368971137381026209993454993454151998462011-03-314.94%4.94%27.18%2.742317.47664.834.833.171.031.31031.06930.2970.76210.43074.6%144255
2011-02-162011316.512.5-5.14%13.96%5932199168849843318978933702361646412720.23770.645577488413874502314195429688994039446068879626432161046333269124717465391132131025684993454993454124181752010-12-315.60%5.59%28.41%2.8782-4.64.62.721.031.3051.07630.34550.6880.40554.1%123649
2010-11-252011212.611.060.44.47%8.82%5496313109527852842505614732054404051080.20680.4078781260138956913145290299567438947466731110107701514743352919124718592965240051436476993454993454110472082010-09-305.17%5.17%27.06%2.7786-4.664.662.391.451.30041.02860.47950.67960.40264.1%142850
2010-08-242011111.910.12-4.35%4.35%545647254564722772232772231996681996680.20100.2010741178935338062616505246740537069479528431574483116N/A9124712326282326281145099993454993454101530992010-06-305.08%5.08%27.41%2.8824-4.794.792.131.151.43221.18810.46410.54990.3535.0%113142
2010-05-252010410.548.710.453.82%17.87%54174942068704223109710460021611087529340.16220.75797884748396090132906903143210355114594058110625335513937672553808275111437438991247199345499345488914132010-03-314.43%4.27%29.70%2.623711.8094.594.591.950.921.26011.02120.29030.72190.41734.0%144156
2010-02-19201039.258.65-4.45%14.05%5337713152695492569248149051872455918270.18850.595771950743282395276348126301963415344315931130978272585376725538082858393481668101975099345499345485238352009-12-314.81%4.81%26.77%2.7303-4.434.431.941.031.2480.98960.38770.62840.38413.3%132949
2009-11-23201029.158.50.154.73%9.60%515197099318362759145579801992174045800.20050.4072746353135347163108309298318233266435522278145319114626496253808259030732534586342799345499345486430492009-09-305.37%5.36%27.36%2.662-4.354.332.010.871.18490.95920.28940.71920.41652.8%133754
2009-08-25201019.248.43-4.88%4.88%477986647798662820662820662053622053620.20670.206773040753305235290260527779923285244014705925559839017458538082494165476707101478999345499345485536382009-06-305.77%5.90%26.79%3.0677-4.44.371.971.021.18981.00330.36530.66440.39742.4%92945
2009-05-25200948.677.850.334.35%14.60%4374999243676222359298102921723495786710.17350.58256584214270845923719252237908490334212289774068447821336164547999326247991753808299345499345478979592009-03-315.43%5.39%27.27%3.700913.64844.194.171.910.541.21031.01190.24040.56970.36021.9%72633
2009-02-24200938.07.2-1.07%10.25%55613801999262268316574361424714063200.04280.4090732943935210113288739316429649795404070083102232124733607754799950977517369872169799345499345474012322008-12-311.23%1.23%36.16%3.5532-4.023.991.870.731.11270.98680.22810.82410.44871.4%63445
2008-11-25200927.76.750.123.32%9.18%7690193144312421829335060511316473638560.13250.3663954576357535905459258533605148653408650568145025339824666654799942805218138672938599345499345470038502008-09-302.38%2.38%27.27%2.7434-4.064.041.750.731.07820.8940.13671.3520.57191.6%145675
2008-08-28200917.056.3-5.86%5.86%674104967410493231123231122322032322030.23370.23371027336965023916073255594762048035420011428207792583N/A54799918949418949473749399345499345465071232008-06-304.79%4.79%27.73%2.3267-4.184.161.570.741.09330.8910.1241.46270.59122.3%197093
2008-05-26200848.56.40.334.72%18.68%6050194223015802194519083621672346616650.16830.66608609608495659346454594521336467323964149786124529251252887544013256873398654799999345499345480966502008-03-313.63%3.63%22.88%2.590312.23683.943.922.080.551.09630.8580.12121.18580.53962.0%185576
2008-02-26200838.57.6-5.43%14.00%5706776162513862559446905931922884961120.19360.499480517564536519425515341261084473837966036324803471732528875440132853073242057643399345499345482456682007-12-314.48%4.48%24.22%2.6204-3.783.752.210.581.09950.88410.13971.13410.52851.9%165372
2007-11-29200828.98.0-3.61%8.58%5404596105446101827534346471279713038220.12880.30587835941435809141326294002515567093703312207583213575152209544013599215820138581299345499345486430492007-09-303.38%3.38%29.45%2.5801-3.673.652.380.391.08880.83650.09641.13330.52741.8%195373
2007-08-27200819.058.25-4.96%4.96%514001451400142518952518951758521758520.17700.177071555643727433343537533043215651337201896473954703152544013889979214945186499345499345479476322007-06-304.90%4.90%29.60%2.0701-3.693.662.190.451.1280.98290.13670.93770.48012.9%126982
2007-05-2820074N/AN/A-N/AN/A4847614194963602357089031981691236403070.17020.644565169013118639297404328430925503435428587489414787471921874660062701947800754401399345499345461097422007-03-314.86%4.86%27.24%1.48429.54193.513.491.760.551.09690.92890.19130.85270.45642.8%1979108
2007-02-2620073N/AN/A-N/AN/A4824901146487462316626674901656134711840.16670.4743659986133215583228502310606452658337135964546033008418903746600631537612633959234599345499345449474002006-12-314.80%4.80%27.72%0.7311-3.343.321.50.61.06940.86580.19070.97280.48924.5%50159234

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtGoodwill on consolidation (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Finance lease payables (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Provisions (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Finance lease payables (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20123-662337394192683604288-71350910934924433710142426-9663722052168067-158792484673634001
20122-641633954210383643488-10659299157463532042148523-8381421294141925-4396420159832225
20121-643532704077633584112-76638110988803589675153990-8231521235151096-400000369979534737
20117-9396-4041783616210-47018310637674237445160332-7341120346134665-1000000360046133064
20116-9130-3757543554402-6644649101283293649165288-5934520322125607-400000332895139111
20115-8946-3693893552665-90667610157993228514162655-4625121044110433--370050137429
20114-8770-3648863583364-10262098326002668903162833-1623219564104436--335107335646
20113-8571-3518563513912-10256846790502169768153749--19306137464--283143540394
20112-8397-3500593558454-14364768143001644915130558--19058155465--284020938947
20111-8265-3494393520279-11450996023721786335127904--21196129493--233791237069
20104-3617-7900133130217-9124717511822297248126510--20970142806--300040435511
201038163481-7640383144344-10197506796651582980112536--20749149581--248061534153
20102228204092-7625773139326-8634276731831998106103895--21232154650--282853233266
20101240043035-7522353219566-10147895180981772348103774395-20444120149435-265740832852
20094251892773-7393533108440-5380824439611726416107032497-2648885159444-215230549033
20093222946090-7336183046426-721697398405240090999477--2496678436--308586049795
20092226636050-7370573026403-729385983029404117698531--24676126925--520912648653
20091230326268-7143803027298-73749312030374561861101153--24482122177--582544348035
20084234005692-7017172922206-5479991077351333124399852--2427193367--442796946732
20083237695580-7903592695529-576433888751307133599934--29111128498--399761044738
20082241375320--266641278198138581210100242962255101339--28775153820--384869556709
20081245064916--28378605608494518644796972795872102551--28503140350-2701316127056513
20074248744641-5618212806926-5440134776502096976102642--28309120951-5280271686155034
20073252434356--2983590265114592345632197209701694612--27826147420-7830295081452658

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associates
20123748994195908212071478781775551
20122748426661223106672490691688106
20121685275591802548365078961673310
20117742292384663465871108061302265
20116730494374665194870027871682185
20115753992780298147972478141783175
2011463826658576824560670771317198
2011359321999428624856002281447174
2011254963137693229652118991878132
2011154564727599722651792711558248
20104541749468632887551776581357136
201035337713687912365081214888189
201025151970754967964875317120157
2010147798667556060264503888114462
2009443749996434115134137278761279
200935561380247042665492838114140
200927690193498821937507056140411
2009167410498960618964183241303576
2008460501945022113258307231996112
2008357067766197714854509421679258
200825404596538201725221874962203
2008151400147456419348882021479276
2007448476146420923446119552376283
2007348249016420924745931861840194

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentRetailsCommercial
20123184553261134199114084186
20122124534237533804834133705
20121123873362632115913662403
20117121413084331536524287973
20116123912712031891054130567
20115129464099631057564462221
20114128525494928596413565571
20113111744478128422783123078
20112130615845728046672737042
20111118184856027557802737434
20104109964944326279832827957
20103108994324526168752753184
20102106574117326129012569585
20101101382586624961882299406

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentRetailsCommercial
2012363114522579570763
2012260125047416129584
201215945221646278227
20117435820145552124425
201166254888114164141581
201156719144120316128942
201144980465171069105118
20113512711919487194422
201126937409125951106381
201115689129119915121251
201045048258712927363244
20103329140112684694525
201024515620127046114301
20101425134117069778080

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment