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Tuesday, December 25, 2012

KLCI Stock - TCHONG / 4405 - 2012 Quarter 3

TAN CHONG MOTOR HOLDINGS BERHAD


Company Description
Tan Chong Motor Holdings Berhad is principally engaged in investment holding and the provision of management services to its subsidiary companies. The Company comprises three business segments: Vehicles assembly, distribution and after sale services, which is engaged in the assembly and distribution of passenger and commercial vehicles, automotive workshop services, distribution of automotive spare parts and insurance agency; Financial services, which is engaged in the provision of hire purchase financing, personal loans and money changing, and Other operations, which is engaged in property and investment holding activities. The Company's subsidiaries include Fujiyama Car Cooler Sdn. Bhd., Kereta Komersil Seladang (M) Sdn. Bhd., TC Aluminium Castings Sdn. Bhd., TC Manufacturing Holdings Sdn. Bhd., TC Transmission Sdn. Bhd. and VDC Sdn. Bhd. In October 2009, the Company incorporated three subsidiaries: Tan Chong Trading (Labuan) Pty Ltd; ETCM (C) Pty Ltd.

Company Info 
Listing Date1974-02-04
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,091,200,000 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50
BoardMain
SectorConsumer Products
Major IndustryAutomotive Manufacturing & Distribution
Sub IndustryAutomotive Related Services
Websitehttp://www.nissan.com.my

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(4.6-0.12)/0.2231 = 20.08 (Moderate)
Target Price4.57+0.12 = 4.69 (PE 20.5, EPS 0.2231, DPS 0.12)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price strong sustain above SMA20 or wait rebound around SMA200
Comment
Revenue decreased 4.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.6%, eps decreased 24.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 40.1%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover operating expenses hence generated cash from financing and spent 8.3% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, balance sheet assets indicate Group quick and largely expand the business, operating margin near to recent year low 5%, liquidity ratio indicate can meet current obligation if inventory sales maintain good, gearing ratio indicate quite high liabilities risk especially during profit decreasing, inventory turnover period turned longer time which will more short of cash unless revenue can largely increase in near time to offset the risk, most division growth but automotive division margin reducing
First Support Price4.4
Second Support Price4.2
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price4.6 (2012-07-23)
CIMB Target Price3.94 (2012-11-29)
ECM Target Price5 (2012-11-29)
HLG Target Price4.3 (2012-11-29)
RHB Target Price4.75 (2012-11-29)
AMMB Target Price5.3 (2012-12-20)
Kenanga Target Price4.36 (2012-12-20)
MIDF Target Price4.6 (2012-12-20)
Maybank Target Price5.35 (2012-12-21)
OSK Target Price5.32 (2012-12-24)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity7.66%
Dividend Yield2.61%
Operating Profit Margin5.29%
Net Profit Margin4.75%
Tax Rate27.68%
Asset Turnover0.9881
Net Asset Value Per Share2.9
Net Tangible Asset per share2.87
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.55
Cash Per Share0.95
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5671
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.7305
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3858
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.0202
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5041
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale24.1%
Days to sell the inventory138
Days to collect the receivables53
Days to pay the payables45

Technical Analysis 
SMA 104.496 (Uptrend)
SMA 204.489 (Uptrend 6 days)
SMA 504.48 (Same)
SMA 1004.498 (Uptrend)
SMA 2004.452 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.024417 ( 0.006289 )
Signal (9)0.005951 ( 0.004617 )
MACD Histogram0.018466 (Bullish trend 4 days)
Bolinger Upper Band4.638
Bolinger Lower Band4.34

My notes based on 2012 Quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt from Automotive division due to festive season and consumers’ wait-see attitude in anticipation of reduction in car price and stiffer competition coupled with higher promotional and marketing costs

- Higher pbt from Financial Services division due to higher renewal of non-motor insurance and higher number of hire purchases loans granted

- Lower pbt from Others division than FY12Q2 was due to the remeasurement to fair value of the Group’s pre-existing 15% interest in TRMS which resulted in a one off gain of RM2.8 million in second quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 138683*1.05/652816 = 0.2231, estimate PE on current price 4.6 = 20.08(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.2129, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.51/19.63 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 173729*0.8/652817 = 0.2129, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.28/19.63 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1849169*0.11/652817 = 0.3116, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.99/13.22 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0836*4*0.9 = 0.301, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.42/13.02 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.54/11.24 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.35, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.8/11.94 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0983*4 = 0.3932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.03/1 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0991*4 = 0.3964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.92/9.51 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0639*4 = 0.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/10.92 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0527*4 = 0.2108, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/10.44 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0528*4 = 0.2112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.31/8.19 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0626*4 = 0.2504, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.35/5.39 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0425*4 = 0.17, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.12/6.12 (DPS 0.1)

TCHONG latest news (English)

TCHONG latest news (Chinese)

USD/MYR Chart


Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateoper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-11-2820123N/AN/A-1.77%5.82%937686290564944580151411326931076430.05010.16493825414251800419282681606783714218971463343672476955550803234185820622698229643665281665281628985032012-09-305.29%4.75%27.68%0.9881-2.92.871.550.951.56710.73050.38581.02020.504124.1%1385345
2012-08-15201224.74.30.062.34%4.05%98536419679636064410683143282749520.06630.1148347194021761741576210108159279711895730126754533112287253240401800654866037270065281665281629376722012-06-306.52%6.15%29.23%1.0794-2.892.871.570.872.0121.03970.52660.8350.45429.2%1105346
2012-05-21201214.654.3-1.71%1.71%982599982599461874618731670316700.04850.0485334733421254461465159102645283361882175798872426821853332404010415511437843841865281765281729376762012-03-315.28%4.70%31.37%1.107-2.872.851.580.972.07071.09520.61750.78190.437729.7%1064740
2012-02-24201144.794.240.061.84%12.78%874409385449945878304978310402161390.04750.331130369091893421118773585138883101849174190050499714034314361814007918042232404065281765281727940562011-12-315.90%5.25%32.95%1.269212.92712.822.81.530.792.22391.09640.60920.64520.391127.0%993934
2011-11-17201134.464.04-3.23%10.94%905356298009074177259101545581851000.08360.28352827848175217610104886735307896181736023236054311582011435642269296872821229265281865281828919832011-09-308.26%8.19%26.44%1.3492-2.772.751.610.622.60151.22710.60190.55840.357328.3%974036
2011-08-18201124.884.150.063.34%7.72%942992207473479772184924564621305420.08650.200028055301691928101227865332181861793252162719284011265771435641911206454320810765281865281831531102011-06-308.80%8.46%29.13%1.3479-2.732.711.780.612.58971.38090.61410.56710.360827.5%844836
2011-05-18201115.084.24-4.38%4.38%1131742113174210515210515274080740800.11350.1135279228817278091027754618342811417645347648343530658681435641200135414519770965281965281928071212011-03-319.59%9.29%30.05%1.3489-2.692.671.610.62.79431.3730.62990.58510.368129.5%944435
2011-02-23201044.954.30.063.43%15.13%835360350524866299322753520712297400.07980.3519274596417879391054727645635863916912379712468206903113359371083020514356465281965281931988132010-12-318.54%7.94%20.88%1.276513.92362.582.561.910.672.76931.21210.68150.62680.384132.6%1163533
2010-11-19201035.74.9-3.25%11.70%871596266988871588256454493411776690.07560.2722262768615647789901295690805069163755725128775974530011401952469716912118865281965281936688422010-09-308.34%8.21%30.82%1.2901-2.52.52.250.632.74971.45960.72560.60650.376829.4%874530
2010-08-18201026.024.650.064.19%8.45%927925179829295953184866636551283280.09750.196624778311531547854394438932518816234371259161099701447111140192358869117520519465281965281933881302010-06-3010.49%10.34%33.11%1.3174-2.482.482.090.763.48932.11531.13050.5280.344833.5%744731
2010-05-26201015.233.88-4.26%4.26%870367870367889138891364674646740.09910.09912567002156368398983470248546591577168518463716262777114019146844809316211265281965281925002962010-03-3110.76%10.22%26.98%1.1821-2.412.411.590.842.22591.35620.78380.62950.385628.4%794830
2010-02-22200945.22.90.062.93%10.69%720189285688642329176846417371523380.06390.232724653821578271947204655659440615181782405972204391768776174201583784511401965291965461519914022009-12-316.03%5.88%0.62%1.158813.10622.312.311.320.822.40721.38040.82010.62570.384232.3%924536
2009-11-18200933.612.3-2.42%7.76%745768213669743969134517344321106010.05270.16882203778138320672837042651240701475408384973173736162678761742112374855912473365291965521317041182009-09-305.95%5.90%21.04%1.2645-2.252.251.160.843.24312.07811.2860.4950.330534.3%704231
2009-08-19200922.71.830.052.43%5.35%6980351390929419949054834587761690.05280.1160200315512665415356553271863920146750044345352773252597617444873012347119964565460265636012110132009-06-306.20%6.02%17.31%1.5193-2.232.230.830.683.8712.27891.36030.3660.267430.9%683428
2009-05-28200911.941.45-2.92%2.92%692894692894485544855441582415820.06260.062621737561377640712863497618378314608931778773079154749761741809562620710238166472666472610569142009-03-317.40%7.01%13.89%1.4395-2.192.190.730.522.76851.390.69520.48920.327928.1%884033
2009-02-20200841.651.140.052.28%19.88%649964319582640399307210281872458020.04250.3690225142014504088264026001123557142501841347935495842969947522026227761746624726660787618422008-12-316.62%6.22%29.41%1.41953.11632.132.130.540.482.41690.99310.52750.58140.367126.6%1083227
2008-11-17200831.271.03-7.72%17.60%10024782545862115698266810954172176140.14300.326020566021298993653543371161333214030592222043328114292169947188923460021159496670756674747671362008-09-3011.74%11.54%18.21%1.4527-2.12.10.550.533.49981.80950.95120.46690.317831.1%863930
2008-08-27200821.691.130.055.51%9.88%783777154338484006151112681401221970.10210.183120157961258190681623390339411513341731546233270091790699471219233013310008066738266738210210942008-06-3011.01%10.72%18.79%1.279-1.991.990.770.513.22331.67830.8760.51250.338133.7%944436
2008-05-28200812.011.52-4.37%4.37%759607759607671056710554057540570.08100.0810200836612501947175783795924033129078889097204142287769947686834580611575366738366738313214182008-03-319.22%8.83%19.01%1.1076-1.931.931.030.543.29351.76760.9410.55770.357339.1%1045141
2008-02-26200742.171.470.052.70%8.42%44181918631773404112307431921995680.04790.1491196109812012057247563798483743123634230400221272315451913318791279632406994766638366780412461362007-12-318.40%7.70%6.44%0.950112.54211.851.851.010.453.16231.62680.79690.5880.369644.1%1236046
2007-11-15200732.471.82-2.81%5.72%5930271421358448438903333174676470.04970.1013180200010961265816712320261963912203293369541472932190161331871896612935510383266728066794416348362007-09-308.03%7.56%25.14%1.0288-1.81.81.360.494.72422.75591.39880.48440.322846.6%956135
2007-08-16200722.52.070.0251.85%2.92%430023828331262994419021931344730.03280.0516182479011484856206732641611924212041172053521295511504451331877580174644585436679706681798349622007-06-306.71%6.12%16.26%0.691-1.771.770.710.444.34772.32691.10150.52380.340170.1%1629148
2007-05-2420071N/AN/A-1.06%1.06%398308398308178911789112542125420.01880.01881873814121901167924331265319151119457198281975575338113318772452657805306683886683888087492007-03-314.87%4.49%29.03%0.4434-1.761.760.690.473.89892.01640.9990.57790.3625109.1%26913460
2007-02-2220064N/AN/A0.025N/AN/A432558210903910235859564306599680.00640.0896193061612752597482513712501899511823654377552888382576562419261489171087391331876686826692328358522006-12-312.70%2.37%56.27%0.224113.94981.741.740.720.483.4351.76090.85910.64320.3876209.0%539264130

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Hire purchase receivables (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Product development costs (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Derivative assets (A-1)Hire purchase receivables (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Employee benefits (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Derivative liabilities (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Payables and accruals (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
2012320987457299139672754417492114559-7514304131296436-48402475160697134432132344138579425655398862559445664191-11576274433017142
2012220249454315144482690017514115193-7450522094372700-488619231491901051670196849398956214083864043457013411--6229694452127971
2012119372440649144481999417536180714797-6904122873438418-1112845701314481001229195466343187213463736138000059891678-6379653808208336
2011414520386788144481979117558180711357-6757791440324634-764246310703895999619406429958420075362722800005249--5200263261138310
20113138903399491419120126101691807--6736081932212292-30046158183992568719309133564820192367662800009414--3208823432347896
20112139853939381419119692104441939--6555103903208107-5929991113085789767193098380951234143554330000010868--3028313396228186
20111124553452811419119519104671967--6575843015197708-8632713880078788431917743621322383734533351042107697-2831173244498114
20104120352782491419118920104901807--6183883945142672-3310768605811005333297352277923232583166735416761681-3523842870828639
201034972414589-18929105131807--6075194579122133-3445498100952734155290772312823214772457237500030090--2875752514155069
201025022317247-18788105361807--5879774907205272-7579533071247603068290939348112186662387937291722725--1597032565045188
201014881385349-18860105591807--5755356328162478-6601-88149610999388162307294122992307825197273275994-4590462301184659
200944881259504-18281105821806--5849417116114377215047-117220673185423333235107866922286260590725-23876432672894406
200934666225784-1885210608180672205-4804106241125158317029-4711749687842333127369011805218372682167646-11995692192964070
200924666130797-1829410638180671441-4933885584202777-18356-2715452092624230425502411805211291755355761--1057102157153920
200914656172901-1836910663580671653-5063435725103341-3034-6388368594024258727885511822203441830795430--2382862539023783
200844501165331-1821210692580671843-520994363376733-3567-6160985444023982221423715562199431907856718--3791842142103557
2008321564125619-1846210720580671808-5015222108115949-3016-54691627388237098260851299781917323323125538--1283382172853332
2008221564113846-1858110748580672301-5106674093100080-2738-54736603093241865255678311801941824068612580--1463582314014115
2008121566114891-1807610775580672479-5104864093115753-2906-5473657923224143525613231110187612881154675--1431492317684033
2007421563116686-1782410803580672855-508951540569947-8755-5652358327023274924996130895184172955961362--1585422199443743
200738747121010-1825310875580664369-476814-103832-5385-5787245668822072025162918895184903122605138--6027916660919639
200727509111736-18012108595806630182954456411-58543-8863-7869453381323242623614617666181763206701635--10308915943719242
200718542113820-17829108935806705683250424095-80530-13108-949595885872318182100091975117879328960758--17935913253619151
200649042157281-171001091358067375035453757822138133187-21638-7017862153818574624297218730176043406671096--22054114961318995

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associates
201239376861234098708880454534165644
201229853641772773109210803652955715
20121982599144919261930711263357203
201148744091511882908227792802772234
20113905356196094386830605103379433
20112942992232385731860038722376173
20111113174231597650110232315252543599
20104835360138441129076405738462959
201038715962206636057988671812323141
20102927925317695679830582529436172
201018703672398669037767342531604579
2009472018926162586767973315667472
20093745768925341967013952843233559
2009269803572704056654754137284475
20091692894674658466416352262984157
200846499641188256286069443303108101
2008310024782106448808847757832994119
20082783777157855104697509812336506
200817596071275858216895512902619251
2007444181921925328404693722673430
200735930271127253005453783972253241
2007243002342774244401181911518183
20071398308519338323788931561579729
20064432558575947974208931703255112

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersAutomotiveFinancial Services
20123132392592610437
20122143297390710025
201217449719959860
2011424268677074276
20113239489186711095
201128129327839396
2011185911220678817
201041541282644013837
2010383086101310861
2010246789226383115
20101449485765518020
2009464757151485232
2009332607414143987
2009245086943376624
2009145096877575331
2008418766470273494
2008324089984112964
200829637810932644
200819667569083031
200749654384633409
2007324465887503046
200729354265333475
200719263947633634
200648534289983923

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersAutomotiveFinancial Services
201232524664864052
201224423767853851
201211237678325227
201141186727452109
201136608858461099
201122438962415247
2011128211259636193
201049195755899085
20103217842007924
2010210451112438653
201011884975265931
2009414569394995844
200932796553211504
200922700543343136
200914903633181625
2008413644965673
2008322491167101447
20082456868281823
20081452692932722
20074853370611952
200732194446662352
20072368277432655
20071596182102633
2006462914316998

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = average working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = average days to sell the inventory, rec_d = Average days to collect the receivables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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