This is my analysis to KLSE stock based on each quarter report. Objective of the blog is to provide a platform for easy visualize company previous quarter reports.
Revenue increased 30.5% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.4%, eps increased 7.9% and was sixth consecutive quarter increasing(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.3%), no cash generated from operating after deduct assets inceased if not will be enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 8.6% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, higher property development cost can indicate got new property project
First Support Price
3.0
Second Support Price
2.7
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
MIDF Target Price
4.68 (2011-03-23)
Kenanga Target Price
4.12 (2011-03-25)
AMMB Target Price
3.82 (2011-06-14)
UOB Target Price
4.4 (2011-06-20)
CIMB Target Price
5.63 (2011-06-24)
OSK Target Price
4.8 (2011-06-24)
TA Target Price
4.32 (2011-06-24)
HwangDBS Target Price
5.1 (2011-08-09)
Maybank Target Price
4.1 (2011-09-12)
ECM Target Price
2.94 (2011-09-30)
HLG Target Price
3.81 (2011-09-30)
RHB Target Price
3.41 (2011-10-03)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
10.94%
Dividend Yield
3.53%
Profit Margin
18.64%
Tax Rate
16.37%
Asset Turnover
0.354
Net Asset Value Per Share
1.72
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.67
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.72
Cash Per Share
0.64
Liquidity Current Ratio
2.1605
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.5377
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.6386
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.994
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.4853
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
94.2%
Days to sell the inventory
211
Days to collect the receivables
263
Days to pay the payables
142
My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 mainly resulted from higher contributions from all divisions
- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to lower contributions from all segment offset by higher profit from associated company
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0542+0.0585)*2 = 0.2254, estimate PE on current price 3.4 = 14.55(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.177*1.1 = 0.1947, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.77/12.89 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0439*4*1.05 = 0.1844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.77/18.71 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0789*2*1.05 = 0.1657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.98/20.64 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.84/20.47 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)
Not interested unless stock price sustain above 0.17
Comment
Revenue decreased 50.9% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.7%, eps decreased 15.1% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 104.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at very low level now, no significant increase in property development cost can indicate no new project
First Support Price
0.16
Second Support Price
0.15
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
9.78%
Dividend Yield
8.57%
Profit Margin
53.39%
Tax Rate
25.89%
Asset Turnover
0.2576
Net Asset Value Per Share
0.26
Net Tangible Asset per share
0.26
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.62
Cash Per Share
0.1
Liquidity Current Ratio
7.2231
Liquidity Quick Ratio
5.4968
Liquidity Cash Ratio
4.3894
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.0892
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.08
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
193.1%
Days to sell the inventory
319
Days to collect the receivables
121
Days to pay the payables
167
My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to better performance from all division
- Lower revenue and pbt than FY12Q1 mainly due to lower progress revenue recognition
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.025(recent 4th qrt cum_eps), estimate PE on current price 0.175 = 6.4(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0227, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.15/6.89 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0212+0.018)/2 = 0.0196, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.44/8.16 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.017(recent 4 quarters eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.06/9.41 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*0.9 = 0.016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.19/9.06 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0178 (based on last year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.99/7.87 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0155 (13% drop from 0.0178), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10/9.03 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0218+0.0289+0.019)/3 = 0.0232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.6 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.5/10.48 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0042*4 = 0.0168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.52/7.74 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.11/8.06 (DPS 0.015)
Not interested unless stock price sustain above 1.8
Comment
Revenue decreased 12.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.9%, eps decreased 9.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 0.9% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, inventory increasing can indicate products demand increase, wholesale division got improved products margin
First Support Price
1.9
Second Support Price
1.8
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
RHB Target Price
1.35 (2011-03-24)
Affin Target Price
1.27 (2011-09-29)
OSK Target Price
1.7 (2011-09-29)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
13.34%
Dividend Yield
2.81%
Profit Margin
21.71%
Tax Rate
27.35%
Asset Turnover
0.8242
Net Asset Value Per Share
1.06
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.06
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.57
Cash Per Share
0.44
Liquidity Current Ratio
4.3445
Liquidity Quick Ratio
3.0123
Liquidity Cash Ratio
2.4282
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.2176
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.1729
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
54.9%
Days to sell the inventory
96
Days to collect the receivables
35
Days to pay the payables
48
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q1 mainly due to lower contribution from its principal subsidiary, the multi-level marketing (“MLM”) division which was attributable to the slowdown in recruitment of new members and lower level of sales from its members however revenue from the wholesale and retail divisions increased mainly due to the aggressive marketing strategies of the wholesale division and additional revenue generated from 4 new outlets set up by the retail division
- Higher pbt than FY11Q1 due to higher operating margin of 22% as compared to 20% for the same corresponding quarter in the previous year due to the increased contribution from higher margin products, lower costs of imported goods due to the strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia and general improvement in operational efficiency and productivity
- Lower revenue than FY11Q4 mainly due to lower sales as previous quarter got aggressive year-end sales compaign and above reason
- Lower pbt than FY11Q4 due to above reason however higher pbt in wholesale division due to greater contribution from high margin products coupled with the lower cost of imported goods
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0387*4*1.05 = 0.1625, estimate PE on current price 2.16 = 13.31(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0428+0.0318)*2*1.05 = 0.1567, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/9.41 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0318*4*1.05 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.33/14.93 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0307*4*0.95 = 0.1167, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.91/18.25 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0391*4 = 0.1564, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.01/17.46 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0714*4 = 0.2856*1.1(10% QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.16/8.78 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3729, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.42/9.17 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.78/7.44(DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)
Revenue decreased 5.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.1%, eps increased 1.9% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 16.7%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio from moderate to below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower receivables can indicate sales slow down in Manufacturing division, property development cost also no significant increase which can indicate no new project
First Support Price
2.25
Second Support Price
2.14
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
TA Target Price
2.9 (2011-09-22)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
15.26%
Dividend Yield
2.17%
Profit Margin
12.65%
Tax Rate
16.04%
Asset Turnover
1.1089
Net Asset Value Per Share
2.17
Net Tangible Asset per share
2.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.97
Cash Per Share
0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.5425
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.8142
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.2248
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.4685
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.302
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
12.3%
Days to sell the inventory
69
Days to collect the receivables
49
Days to pay the payables
71
My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 was contributed by both manufacturing and property division
- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 mainly higher contribution from Manufacturing division despite lower in Property Development
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0948*4*0.95 = 0.3602, estimate PE on current price 2.3 = 6.25(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4*1.05 = 0.3982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.76/4.9 (DPS 0.05)
Not interested unless stock price sustain above 0.81
Comment
Revenue increased 1.7% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.9%, eps decreased 46% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 51.6%, cash generated from operating after deduct operating expenses not enough to cover financing expenses hence generated cash from borrowing but also not enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting ratio are good, revenue and profit of automotive division keep decreasing, power and engineering projects remaining loss, inventory increasing which may indicate revenue going to increase
First Support Price
0.77
Second Support Price
0.75
Risk Rating
HIGH
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
6.37%
Dividend Yield
-
Profit Margin
3.01%
Tax Rate
11.71%
Asset Turnover
1.2474
Net Asset Value Per Share
2.19
Net Tangible Asset per share
2.14
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.36
Cash Per Share
0.84
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.1654
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.9231
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.2709
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
2.1045
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.5973
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
5.3%
Days to sell the inventory
30
Days to collect the receivables
76
Days to pay the payables
54
My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pat than FY11Q2 mainly due to lower minority interest(MI) in current quarter
- Lower pbt than FY12Q1 mainly due to the impact of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan especially to the Thailand's automotive industry
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0228*4*1.05 = 0.0958(if deduct additional RM2 million MI), estimate PE on current price 0.79 = 8.25
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1151*1.05 = 0.1209(exclude RM4.7 million other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.6/5.75
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0274*4*1.05 = 0.1151, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.86/6.47
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0272*4*1.05 = 0.1142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.36/5.95
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1288*1.05 = 0.1352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.18
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0322*4 = 0.1288(0.0322 is eps after exclude 8 million from other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.41/4.81
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0346*4 = 0.1384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.99/3.76
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4 = 0.1428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.1
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.023*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.24/3.53
Not interested unless stock price next uptrend above 0.16
Comment
Revenue increased 45.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.9%, eps increased 13% loss and largely turned into loss compared to preceding year corresponding quarter, no cash generated from operating and cash from bank borrowing also not enough to cover all expenses hence spent 20% of Group cash to cover, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio from above moderate to high level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory can indicate slow down in sales, benefit from latex price decreasing, benefit from strengthening of USD against Ringgit
First Support Price
0.145
Second Support Price
0.125
Risk Rating
HIGH
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
-49.91%
Dividend Yield
-
Profit Margin
-18.27%
Tax Rate
-
Asset Turnover
0.6557
Net Asset Value Per Share
0.15
Net Tangible Asset per share
0.15
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.83
Cash Per Share
0.09
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.4388
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.036
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.6585
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.1258
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.5296
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
28.8%
Days to sell the inventory
68
Days to collect the receivables
90
Days to pay the payables
30
My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher loss before tax mainly due to the high latex prices and weakening of the USD. In addition, the provision for doubtful debts of RM1.42 million and stocks write down of RM0.58 million which were non-recurring in nature had cause further deterioration of the Group's result
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate PE on current price 0.18 = 27.27
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.27/17.42
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate highest/lowest PE = 40.15/23.48
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced due to exclude other income will be a loss, if use eps from FY2010Q2 to FY2011Q1 = 0.0079, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.28/2
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0021*2*1.05 = 0.0044(exclude gain from sale of land), estimate highest/lowest PE = 118.18/51.14
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0079(remain recent last 4Q cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 102.53/48.73
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0022*4 = 0.0088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 128.41/67.61
Not interested unless stock price sustain above 1.7
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.7% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.5%, eps decreased 12.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 52.2%, no cash generated from operating but cash generated from financing more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio from above moderate to high level now, all accounting ratio are good, maintaining high inventory can mean demand still strong, benefit from USD strengthening and latex price decreasing
First Support Price
1.54
Second Support Price
1.45
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
CIMB Target Price
1.49 (2011-09-29)
OSK Target Price
2 (2011-09-29)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
10.92%
Dividend Yield
4.19%
Profit Margin
2.90%
Tax Rate
-
Asset Turnover
0.8327
Net Asset Value Per Share
1.47
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.45
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.01
Cash Per Share
0.41
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.4406
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.9523
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.3985
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.1576
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.5356
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
17.1%
Days to sell the inventory
72
Days to collect the receivables
79
Days to pay the payables
42
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY10Q3 due to weaknesses in USD and higher raw material cost despite achieving cost savings across the Group
- Lower revenue and pbt due to Ringgit contributed to the small drop and earnings are still weak from sustained commodity prices
- Internal growth grew at all subsidiaries except in Uruguay where a severe winter cut off fuel supplies, reducing production output
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.013*4*1.4 = 0.0728(exclude RM2 million from tax and other income), estimate PE on current price 1.67 = 22.66(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.03*4*1.3 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.69/8.85 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0265*4*1.3 = 0.1378(slowly recover), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.91/13.5 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.38/12.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.055*4*0.95 = 0.209, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/8.71 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0434*4 = 0.1736*1.1(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.191, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.81/11.78 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.063*4 = 0.252, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/11.35 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.83/18.28 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.2/11.36 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.39/7.77 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.04/8.26 (DPS 0.06)
Not interested unless stock price next uptrend start above 1.98
Comment
Revenue decreased 11.5% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 85.5%, eps decreased 39% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 90.1%, got cash generated from operating but lower than preceding year, latest NAV at RM2.77, slightly decreased
First Support Price
2.15
Second Support Price
2.05
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
4.40%
Dividend Yield
-
Profit Margin
83.59%
Tax Rate
12.79%
Asset Turnover
0.0676
Net Asset Value Per Share
2.63
Net Tangible Asset per share
2.63
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.77
Cash Per Share
0.89
Liquidity Current Ratio
35.4243
Liquidity Quick Ratio
35.4243
Liquidity Cash Ratio
34.0558
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.01
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.0099
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
501.7%
Days to sell the inventory
-
Days to collect the receivables
23
Days to pay the payables
13
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The NAV per share decreased by 5% in the fourth quarter ended 31 August 2011 to RM2.63, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.77
- The NAV per share increased by 8% in the fourth quarter ended 31 May 2011 to RM2.77, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.56
- The NAV per share increased by 4% in the third quarter ended 28 February 2011 to RM2.56, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.47
- The NAV per share increased by 6% in the second quarter ended 30 November 2010 to RM2.47, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.32
- The NAV per share increased by 10% in the first quarter ended 31 August 2010 to RM2.32, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.1
1.83+0.1034 = 1.93 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1526, DPS 0.1034)
Decision
Not interested unless stock price next uptrend start above 2
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.8%, eps decreased 20.8 and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 51.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough for financing expenses and still got borrowings to cover investing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, lower inventory can translate into sales slow down
First Support Price
2.0
Second Support Price
1.8
Risk Rating
MODERATE
Research House
Maybank Target Price
3.3 (2011-02-09)
RHB Target Price
3.02 (2011-02-22)
OSK Target Price
2.89 (2011-02-25)
CIMB Target Price
3.74 (2011-05-27)
HLG Target Price
3.11 (2011-05-27)
MIDF Target Price
2.8 (2011-05-27)
Affin Target Price
2.7 (2011-09-20)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
8.88%
Dividend Yield
4.90%
Profit Margin
7.71%
Tax Rate
14.51%
Asset Turnover
0.6558
Net Asset Value Per Share
1.45
Net Tangible Asset per share
1.44
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
1.74
Cash Per Share
0.18
Liquidity Current Ratio
1.4558
Liquidity Quick Ratio
0.4012
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.1191
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
1.572
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.6104
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
28.7%
Days to sell the inventory
256
Days to collect the receivables
65
Days to pay the payables
34
My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly attributable to lower export tonnages as a result of disruption in demand growth momentum in the international market on the back of political unrest in Middle East and North Africa region in addition to the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan
- Lower pbt mainly due to depressed international steel prices while recognising higher input costs
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0477*4*0.8 = 0.1526, estimate PE on current price 2.11 = 13.15(DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.04+0.0602)*2 = 0.2004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/10.96 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/16.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0517*4 = 0.2068(0.0517 is average eps of Q110,Q409,Q308, due to steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.91/11.9 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/9.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.048*4 = 0.192, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.68/13.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0682*4 = 0.2728, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/8.69 (DPS 0.03)
Proton Holdings Berhad operates in the automobile industry. The Company is engaged in manufacturing, assembling, trading and the provision of engineering, and other services in respect of motor vehicles and related products. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in vehicle engineering, research and development, manufacturing, distribution sales and after-sales services. The portfolio of PROTON models includes the family-sedan Waja, Gen.2, Perdana V6, Arena, Saga range, Savvy, Satria Neo and the Persona. Its subsidiaries include Perusahaan Otomobil Nasional Sdn. Bhd., Proton Tanjung Malim Sdn. Bhd., Proton Marketing Sdn. Bhd. and Lotus Advance Technologies Sdn. Bhd. On May 15, 2008, the Company acquired Lotus Lightweight Structures Holdings Ltd. During the fiscal year end March 31, 2009, the Company liquidated Smith & Sons Motors Ltd, Proton Direct Ltd., Proton Cars (Europe) Ltd.
Not interested unless stock price got strong uptrend signal
Comment
Revenue decreased 14.7% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.5%, eps decreased 92.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 94.6% (due to LGIL expenses), low cash generated from operating but cash from financing more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price
2.5
Second Support Price
2.4
Risk Rating
HIGH
Research House
HwangDBS Target Price
4.7 (2011-01-10)
UOB Target Price
3.75 (2011-02-17)
TA Target Price
4.52 (2011-02-28)
AMMB Target Price
5.1 (2011-03-04)
JF Apex Target Price
4.48 (2011-05-24)
Affin Target Price
3.3 (2011-06-03)
CIMB Target Price
3.5 (2011-09-26)
MIDF Target Price
2.7 (2011-10-04)
OSK Target Price
2 (2011-10-12)
Maybank Target Price
2.64 (2011-10-18)
RHB Target Price
2.9 (2011-10-19)
Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity
1.32%
Dividend Yield
3.79%
Profit Margin
0.54%
Tax Rate
62.39%
Asset Turnover
1.1093
Net Asset Value Per Share
9.86
Net Tangible Asset per share
8.03
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share
0.37
Cash Per Share
2.58
Liquidity Current Ratio
2.1443
Liquidity Quick Ratio
1.4767
Liquidity Cash Ratio
0.7367
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio
0.4863
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio
0.3272
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
24.7%
Days to sell the inventory
50
Days to collect the receivables
58
Days to pay the payables
65
My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt largely attributed by higher expenses incurred by Lotus Group International Limited (LGIL) however is partially offset by a higher revenue from an increase in PROTON's domestic sales volume compared to FY11Q1
- Lower pbt compared to FY11Q4 other than above mention also due to a normalization in the trend of customer's demand for the Inspira and drop in the financing approval rate by local financial institutions in June 2011
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1122*4*0.7 = 0.3142(exclude LGIL expenses), estimate PE on current price 2.64 = 7.77(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.2326*0.95 = 0.221, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.38/12.58 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.12*0.95*3-0.1094 = 0.2326(estimate average 5% lower profit from FY11Q2 for next 3 quarter and FY12Q3 still loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.98/13.16 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/8.33 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/9.28 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)
Short form reference a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables pay_d = days to pay the payables
