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Saturday, May 12, 2012

KLCI Stock - ARMADA / 5210 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)11,684,561,784 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(3.99-0.025)/0.1573 = 25.21 (Moderate)
Target Price4.33+0.025 = 4.35 (PE 27.5, EPS 0.1573, DPS 0.025)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price cross SMA20 still up and and selling volume still low or wait stock price below Bolinger lower band
Revenue decreased 8.2% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.1%, eps increased 28.8% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence got generated more cash from financing activities to cover other expenses, very high margin, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, strong cash, benefit from strengthening of USD against RM, most segment business got high profit
First Support Price3.99
Second Support Price3.7

Research House
Kenanga Target Price3.88 (2011-07-21)
Credit Suisse Target Price4.4 (2011-09-09)
MIDF Target Price3.7 (2012-02-28)
Maybank Target Price4.88 (2012-04-30)
AMMB Target Price5.05 (2012-05-08)
CIMB Target Price4.8 (2012-05-08)
ECM Target Price5.1 (2012-05-08)
HwangDBS Target Price5.2 (2012-05-08)
OSK Target Price4.37 (2012-05-08)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity10.15%
Dividend Yield0.63%
Gross Profit Margin49.95%
Operating Profit Margin45.12%
Net Profit Margin41.39%
Tax Rate17.30%
Asset Turnover0.1684
Net Asset Value Per Share1.44
Net Tangible Asset per share1.43
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.8
Cash Per Share0.43
Liquidity Current Ratio2.6989
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.6969
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.5583
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9619
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4892
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale116.5%
Days to sell the inventory1
Days to collect the receivables281
Days to pay the payables180

Technical Analysis 
SMA 204.195 (Downtrend 14 days)
SMA 504.268 (Same)
SMA 1004.16 (Same)
SMA 200Not Available
MACD (26d/12d)-0.091357 ( 0.001296 )
Signal (9)-0.068594 ( 0.005691 )
MACD Histogram0.022763 (Bearish trend 22 days)
Bolinger Upper Band4.623
Bolinger Lower Band3.767

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt in OSV segment as a result of improved average fleet utilisation

- Higher revenue and pbt in FPSO segment than FY10Q4 mainly due to secured two new FPSO contracts towards the end of the second quarter-Apache in Australia for the Balnaves field and ONGC in India for the D1 field however got partially offset by the weakening US dollar versus the Malaysian Ringgit

- Lower revenue and pbt in T&I segment than FY10Q4 due to lower FPSO installation works

- Higher T&I revenue than FY11Q3 mainly due to recognition of guarantee days on its Armada Installer. This was offset by lower revenue from the installation works carried out in relation to the Sepat and HLJOC projects during the previous quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 3542715*0.13/2928462 = 0.1573, estimate PE on current price 3.99 = 25.21
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0332*4*1.15 = 0.1527, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.47/25.05
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0264*4*1.15 = 0.1214, estimate highest/lowest PE = 33.11/26.69

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