Company Info
| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 314,203,934 (Small) |
| Par Value | RM 0.50 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (1.41-0.04)/0.155 = 8.84 (Moderate) |
| Target Price | 1.55+0.04 = 1.59 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.155, DPS 0.04) |
| Decision | BUY if MACD got strong move uptrend before drop into bearish trend or wait stock price below Bolinger lower band |
| Comment | Revenue decreased 26.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.9%, eps decreased 92.8% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 83%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but need to spent 7.8% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, operating margin decreasing, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio from above moderate to moderate level now, debt ratio decreasing and is already far from historical high, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate products demand still good, benefit from latex price between 600-800 from Jan to March however affected by weakening of USD from Jan to March |
| First Support Price | 1.4 |
| Second Support Price | 1.3 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| CIMB Target Price | 2.05 (2011-11-22) |
| CIMB Target Price | 1.74 (2012-02-27) |
| Jupiter Target Price | 1.8 (2012-03-06) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 16.34% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.84% |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.00% |
| Operating Profit Margin | 10.02% |
| Net Profit Margin | 8.23% |
| Tax Rate | 87.45% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.9921 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 1.04 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 0.96 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 1.75 |
| Cash Per Share | 0.21 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 1.5584 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 0.9234 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.4614 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.6503 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.3941 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 15.3% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 74 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 46 |
| Days to pay the payables | 70 |
Technical Analysis
| SMA 20 | 1.46 (Uptrend 5 days) |
| SMA 50 | 1.527 (Downtrend) |
| SMA 100 | 1.723 (Downtrend) |
| SMA 200 | 1.716 (Downtrend) |
| MACD (26d/12d) | -0.02188 ( 0.003263 ) |
| Signal (9) | -0.02243 ( 0.000137 ) |
| MACD Histogram | 0.000550 (Bullish trend 18 days) |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly due to the high raw material costs and the weaker foreign exchange rate of USD and provision of RM7.6million as the additional taxes payable
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 269113*0.15/260417 = 0.155, estimate PE on current price 1.41 = 8.84(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0502*4*1.3 = 0.261, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.74/6.17 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0483+0.0673)*2*1.05 = 0.2428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.32/6.63 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0483*4*1.1 = 0.2125, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.86/7.18 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2751*0.95 = 0.2613, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.62/8.78 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3043*0.95 = 0.289, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.91/8.15 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0824*4 = 0.3296+0.012(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3416, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.47/6.72 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0792*4 = 0.3168+0.02(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3368, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.46/9.62 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0675*4 = 0.27+0.02(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.29, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.62/12.14 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0566*4 = 0.2264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.78/10.42 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0586*4 = 0.2344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.99/7.81 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.047*4 = 0.188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/4.2 (DPS 0.02)
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