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Thursday, May 10, 2012

KLCI Stock - HUAAN / 2739 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)230,073,102 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
DecisionMainly technical trading for now (not interested unless stock price strong sustain @ 0.205 and sell volume is very low compare to buy) unless coming quarter result got significant good result
Revenue increased 5.9% and was fifth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.4%), eps decreased 1115.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 588.9%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, gross margin decreasing, slight weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, slightly higher gearing ratio from at low level now, slightly higher debt ratio but still far from historical high, all repayment period is good, affecting by higher raw material cost
First Support Price0.205
Second Support Price0.19
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
OSK Target Price0.235 (2012-02-27)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity-1.33%
Dividend Yield-
Gross Profit Margin-2.31%
Operating Profit Margin-3.68%
Net Profit Margin-3.68%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover1.8409
Net Asset Value Per Share0.64
Net Tangible Asset per share0.55
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.46
Cash Per Share0.02
Liquidity Current Ratio2.6205
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6613
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2138
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1492
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1298
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale11.4%
Days to sell the inventory25
Days to collect the receivables34
Days to pay the payables26

Technical Analysis 
SMA 200.216 (Downtrend 51 days)
SMA 500.229 (Same)
SMA 1000.243 (Same)
SMA 2000.245 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.006804 ( 5.1e-005 )
Signal (9)-0.006558 ( 6.1e-005 )
MACD Histogram0.000246 (Bearish trend 10 days)
Bolinger Upper Band0.234
Bolinger Lower Band0.198

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue primarily attributed to the better selling price of the metallurgical coke(FY10Q4:5%) and a general increase in sales volume

- Turning to loss due to increase in the average price of raw material-coking coal(FY10Q4:7%) and cost of sales

- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced due to surging of raw material cost is faster than products selling price, trading decision for safety should based on price of metallurgical coke and coking coal
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0039*2*1.05 = 0.0082, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.88/2 (DPS 0.00178)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.007, estimate highest/lowest PE = 41.17/22.34 (DPS 0.00178)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0035*2 = 0.007, estimate highest/lowest PE = 49.75/29.75 (DPS 0.00178)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0027*4*1.05 = 0.0113, estimate highest/lowest PE = 35.24/27.72 (DPS 0.00178)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0052*2 = 0.0104, estimate highest/lowest PE = 39.42/31.73

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