KLCI Stock - DAYANG / 5141 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,116,500,000 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(2.03-0.1)/0.1481 = 13.03 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.07+0.1 = 2.17 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1481, DPS 0.1)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain and uptrend above 2 then break SMA20 still low sell volume or wait stock price below Bolinger lower band
Comment	Revenue decreased 2% but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.8%, eps decreased 58.5% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 54.4%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence generated cash from disposal and financing activities to cover other expenses as well, lower margin but still good, stronger liquidity ratio at high level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, lower debt ratio and far from historical high, all repayment period is acceptable
First Support Price	2.0
Second Support Price	1.9
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

ECM Target Price	2.27 (2011-11-23)
RHB Target Price	2.07 (2012-01-19)
HwangDBS Target Price	2.7 (2012-03-28)
OSK Target Price	2.34 (2012-04-25)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	16.02%
Dividend Yield	4.93%
Gross Profit Margin	34.22%
Operating Profit Margin	16.79%
Net Profit Margin	16.05%
Tax Rate	20.75%
Asset Turnover	0.559
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.99
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.99
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.07
Cash Per Share	0.43
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.8554
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.8359
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.3437
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3058
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2342
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	76.0%
Days to sell the inventory	3
Days to collect the receivables	144
Days to pay the payables	129

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	2.057 (Downtrend 5 days)
SMA 50	2.08 (Same)
SMA 100	1.969 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.846 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.000422 ( 0.003415 )
Signal (9)	0.004642 ( 0.001055 )
MACD Histogram	0.004220 (Bearish trend 3 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	2.167
Bolinger Lower Band	1.947

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 mainly due to higher value of work orders received and performed in the current quarter for the topside maintenance services, the hook-up commissioning and maintenance services and the marine segment. These segments contributed largely to the increase in revenue mainly as a result of new income stream from the Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd contract which was awarded in February 2011

- Lower pbt due to slightly lower profit margin contribution and a couple of topside maintenance contracts were near expiry and demobilisation costs were incurred without a matching revenue streams

- Lower revenue than FY11Q3 mainly due to lower work orders received and performed in the current quarter as a result of more inclement weather

- On-going contracts exceeding RM1.4 billion to last at least until 2016

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 523694*0.15/530333 = 0.1481, estimate PE on current price 2.03 = 13.03(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.187, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.07/8.88 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0442+0.0354)*2*1.1 = 0.1751, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.57/7.48 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0354*4*1.2 = 0.1699, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.89/9.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0326(17927/550000)*4*1.1 = 0.1434, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.06/12.9 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0526*4*1.1 = 0.2314, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.22/12.14 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1239*1.1 = 0.1363 (0.1239 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.94/14.16 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.129/4(average eps from recent 4Q)*0.9 = 0.1161 (10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.67/12.79 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1237*0.9 = 0.1113(10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.14/14.82 (DPS 0.05, correction to last Q estimated)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.21/9.71 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.98/6.91 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1338, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/3.73 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.15, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.87/ (DPS 0.14)

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