Company Info
| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 52,320,000,000 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 0.10 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (6.54-0.16)/0.4324 = 14.75 (Moderate) |
| Target Price | 6.92+0.16 = 7.08 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.4324, DPS 0.16) |
| Decision | Not interested unless break and uptrend above 6.75 or wait stock price below Bolinger lower band |
| Comment | Revenue decreased 15.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.2%, eps decreased 36% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 21%, cash generated from operating and investing more than enough to cover all expenses, maintain high margin, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, lower debt ratio at healthy level now, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate better demand of products |
| First Support Price | 6.5 |
| Second Support Price | 6.3 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| JP Morgan Target Price | 7.8 (2011-03-09) |
| Credit Suisse Target Price | 8.5 (2011-04-05) |
| Affin Target Price | 7.5 (2011-10-17) |
| RHB Target Price | 6.72 (2011-12-12) |
| AMMB Target Price | 8.3 (2012-02-28) |
| MIDF Target Price | 6.1 (2012-02-28) |
| OSK Target Price | 9 (2012-02-28) |
| CIMB Target Price | 7.9 (2012-02-29) |
| Kenanga Target Price | 7.02 (2012-03-08) |
| HwangDBS Target Price | 5.9 (2012-03-15) |
| Maybank Target Price | 7.5 (2012-03-15) |
| ECM Target Price | 7.69 (2012-05-03) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 12.12% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.45% |
| Gross Profit Margin | 34.38% |
| Operating Profit Margin | 28.46% |
| Net Profit Margin | 29.18% |
| Tax Rate | 27.48% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.5711 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 2.51 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 2.26 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 3.05 |
| Cash Per Share | 1.17 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 2.7667 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 2.4703 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 2.0738 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.3395 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.2396 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 49.2% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 47 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 38 |
| Days to pay the payables | 69 |
Technical Analysis
| SMA 20 | 6.61 (Downtrend 21 days) |
| SMA 50 | 6.693 (Downtrend) |
| SMA 100 | 6.618 (Uptrend) |
| SMA 200 | 6.333 (Downtrend) |
| MACD (26d/12d) | -0.039161 ( 0.000893 ) |
| Signal (9) | -0.038682 ( 0.00012 ) |
| MACD Histogram | 0.000479 (Bearish trend 1 day) |
| Bolinger Upper Band | 6.774 |
| Bolinger Lower Band | 6.446 |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 7 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q3 due to higher product prices and strengthening USD, which offset lower sales volumes and lower pbt due to lower contribution from our associates and jointly controlled entity as a result of lower production and full utilisation of tax benefits in one of the associate companies in the previous year
- Lower revenue and profit in Olefins and Derivatives segment due to lower sales volume with lower production and affected by the softening in certain product markets and power interruption at PETRONAS Chemicals Ethylene Sdn Bhd(FY11Q6)
- Higher revenue and profit in Fertilisers and Methanol segment than FY11Q3 due to improved plant utilisation rate and production volumes as the corresponding quarter was limited by rejuvenation work at fertiliser plant and water supply issues at methanol facility. Despite higher production, sales volume was lower with less trading activities
- Lower revenue and pbt in Fertilisers and Methanol segment than FY11Q6 due to drop in average product prices, lower volumes and constrained by gas supply limitations
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q7 result announced = 21622000*0.16/8000000 = 0.4324, estimate PE on current price 6.54 = 14.75(DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = (0.0921+0.1436)*2*1.1 = 0.5185, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.19/10.82 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.0921+0.105)*2*0.95 = 0.3745, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.85/13.46 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1165*4 = 0.466, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.45 (DPS 0.19)
- Yearly net eps, 2008 = 0.491, 2009 = 0.352, 2010 = 0.275
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