KLCI Stock - PARKSON / 5657 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	5,130,400,614 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(4.69-0.15)/0.4114 = 11.04 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.58+0.15 = 6.73 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.4114, DPS 0.15)
Decision	BUY when MACD very negative and start move up plus got very strong buy volume than sell
Comment	Revenue increased 15.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.5%, eps increased 17.3% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, margin maintaining high, better liquidity ratio, keep improving gearing and debt ratio, higher payables repayment period but still acceptable due to higher revenue, higher inventory can indicate good prospect in sales, all country business growth
First Support Price	4.65
Second Support Price	4.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	7.57 (2011-01-24)
RHB Target Price	6.23 (2011-06-17)
OSK Target Price	6.68 (2011-10-10)
Affin Target Price	7.15 (2011-11-03)
AMMB Target Price	6.84 (2012-02-28)
HwangDBS Target Price	6.2 (2012-02-28)
MIDF Target Price	6.54 (2012-02-28)
ECM Target Price	5.28 (2012-04-26)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	10.14%
Dividend Yield	3.20%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	25.32%
Net Profit Margin	26.34%
Tax Rate	22.26%
Asset Turnover	0.3925
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.38
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.18
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	4.73
Cash Per Share	3.17
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.6191
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.5075
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.292
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.5855
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5025
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	51.4%
Days to sell the inventory	46
Days to collect the receivables	65
Days to pay the payables	400

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	5.136 (Downtrend 55 days)
SMA 50	5.305 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	5.477 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	5.446 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.15256 ( 0.015042 )
Signal (9)	-0.098886 ( 0.013418 )
MACD Histogram	0.053674 (Bearish trend 7 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	5.573
Bolinger Lower Band	4.699

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Better result due to growing consumer demand in all country business coupled with the opening of new stores and continuous improved operating efficiencies

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 4075325*0.11/1089544 = 0.4114, estimate PE on current price 4.69 = 11.04(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.3308*1.1 = 0.3639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.88/14.4 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.32*1.1 = 0.352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.08/13.41 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3094*1.1 = 0.3403(0.3094 from recent fourth quarter eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.25/14.66 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1587*2*1.05 = 0.3333, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.19/15.09 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.24/17.38 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.17/17.74 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2741*1.1 = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.91/16.42 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2676*1.1 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.48/17.15 (DPS 0.05)

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