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Thursday, July 12, 2012

KLCI Stock - BJCORP / 3395 - 2012 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,259,288,746 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.76-0.01)/0.0841 = 8.92 (Moderate)
Target Price0.84+0.01 = 0.85 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0841, DPS 0.01)
DecisionBUY if stock price strong sustain above 0.75
Revenue increased 0.2% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.4%, eps decreased 142.9% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 106.4%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover all financing expenses but cash generated from disposal and financing activities enough to cover all other expenses, operating margin recovered back to normal, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio at recent high, all collection/repayment period is good, high inventory and development properties can indicate still strong in business operation
First Support Price0.75
Second Support Price0.72

Research House
Jupiter Target Price0.75 (2012-05-15)
CIMB Target Price0.79 (2012-06-29)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity2.80%
Dividend Yield1.32%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin11.70%
Net Profit Margin8.94%
Tax Rate56.55%
Asset Turnover0.3847
Net Asset Value Per Share1.3
Net Tangible Asset per share-0.06
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share-13.0
Cash Per Share0.43
Liquidity Current Ratio1.3522
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8501
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5126
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.3816
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4276
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale18.7%
Days to sell the inventory109
Days to collect the receivables63
Days to pay the payables106

Technical Analysis
SMA 200.774 (Uptrend 10 days)
SMA 500.769 (Same)
SMA 1000.851 (Downtrend)
SMA 2000.91 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.005543 ( 0.00013 )
Signal (9)-0.003773 ( 0.000442 )
MACD Histogram0.001770 (Bearish trend 5 days)
Bolinger Upper Band0.814
Bolinger Lower Band0.734

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt mainly due to exceptionally high losses, particularly from the investment in Silver Bird Group Berhad, where the Group equity accounted for its share of losses amounting to about RM44 million

- Lower profit from Toto betting operations mainly due to higher prize payout

- Higher revenue and profit from hotels and resorts business particularly from higher occupancy rates and room rates

- Lower profit from Marketing of consumer products and services due to expansion of the retail distribution division into new markets involved high initial expenses in terms of pre-operating, setting up and operating overheads

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q4 result announced = 10569066*0.035/4400184 = 0.0841, estimate PE on current price 0.76 = 8.92(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 11241538*0.04/4384136 = 0.1026, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.06/6.82 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 11078723*0.04/4385470 = 0.101, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.2/8.86 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 11086601*0.04/4401658 = 0.1007, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.43/9.29 (DPS 0.02)

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