KLCI Stock - ZHULIAN / 5131 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	984,400,000 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.14-0.12)/0.2474 = 8.16 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.35+0.12 = 2.47 (PE 9.5, EPS 0.2474, DPS 0.12)
Decision	BUY if stock price continue strong sustain and uptrend above SMA20 while still bullish trend
Comment	Revenue increased 28.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 29.8%, eps decreased 1.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 29.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, margin still maintaining above 20%, slightly weaker liquidity ratio but still at strong level now, higher gearing ratio but still at low level now, debt ratio still below 15%, all collection/repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate demand of products still good, benefit from strengthening of USD dollar against Ringgit
First Support Price	2.1
Second Support Price	2.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	2.3 (2012-07-12)
ZJ Target Price	2.7 (2012-07-13)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	28.30%
Dividend Yield	5.61%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	21.17%
Net Profit Margin	30.91%
Tax Rate	17.90%
Asset Turnover	0.8192
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.88
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.88
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.16
Cash Per Share	0.29
Liquidity Current Ratio	4.3002
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.4338
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.3063
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1509
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1311
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	49.1%
Days to sell the inventory	60
Days to collect the receivables	59
Days to pay the payables	61

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	2.075 (Uptrend 36 days)
SMA 50	2.01 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.956 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.826 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.043039 ( 0.001338 )
Signal (9)	0.038827 ( 0.001053 )
MACD Histogram	0.004212 (Bullish trend 13 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	2.225
Bolinger Lower Band	1.925

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to increased export sales mainly to Thailand whilst the local sales also increased, mainly contributed by high demand for the food & beverage and nutritional products

- The increase in profit before tax than FY11Q1 was mainly contributed by the increase in revenue and share of profit of equity accounted investee, offset by the increase in exchange loss with the weakening of US Dollar and higher distribution expenses that were in line with the increase in sales

- Lower pbt than FY11Q4 mainly due to the change in sales mix, coupled with weakening of US Dollar

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 406438*0.28/460000 = 0.2474, estimate PE on current price 2.14 = 8.16(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 392351*0.24/460000 = 0.2047, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.23/8.4 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0529+0.0457)*2*1.1 = 0.2169, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.25/7.05 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0457+0.0478)*2*1.05 = 0.1964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.55/7.03 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0478*4 = 0.1912, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.73/8.16 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0959*2*1.05 = 0.2014, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.44/7.6 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0431*4*1.1 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/8.33 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0522*4*1.1 = 0.2297, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/7.23 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.072*4 = 0.288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.47 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0715*4 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/5.84 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.04 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484*4 = 0.1936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/6.56 (DPS 0.12)

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