KLCI Stock - HAIO / 7668 - 2012 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	430,665,300 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(2.13-0.075)/0.1975 = 10.41 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.37+0.075 = 2.45 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1975, DPS 0.075)
Decision	BUY if MACD revert back to uptrend before enter into bearish trend
Comment	Revenue increased 10.6% and was third consecutive quarter icreasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.4%, eps increased 1.1% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.5%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, operating margin maintained good, stronger liquidity ratio at strong level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, lower debt ratio and getting far from historical high, all collection/repayment period is good, MLM division momentum growth
First Support Price	2.11
Second Support Price	2.05
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

JF Apex Target Price	2.34 (2012-06-29)
OSK Target Price	2.13 (2012-06-29)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	15.90%
Dividend Yield	3.52%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	18.94%
Net Profit Margin	19.11%
Tax Rate	27.84%
Asset Turnover	0.8442
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.11
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.11
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.87
Cash Per Share	0.56
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.8794
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.0235
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.5278
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2358
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1842
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	53.1%
Days to sell the inventory	72
Days to collect the receivables	33
Days to pay the payables	62

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	2.116 (Uptrend 6 days)
SMA 50	2.127 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	2.151 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	2.01 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.012962 ( 0.002056 )
Signal (9)	0.005196 ( 0.001941 )
MACD Histogram	0.007766 (Bullish trend 22 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	2.203
Bolinger Lower Band	2.029

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Revenue and pbt mainly contributed by the MLM due to successful incentive trip promotions which generated higher sales from foundation garment products and additional sales from new members coupled with lower research expenditure incurred

- Higher revenue mainly from higher sales in patented medicine products and Chinese Medicated Tonic, benefiting from an aggressive promotion programme

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q4 result announced = 231342*0.17/199156 = 0.1975, estimate PE on current price 2.13 = 10.41(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 222172*0.16/199318 = 0.1783, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.03/11.08 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0394*4*1.1 = 0.1734, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.52/9.95 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0387*4*1.05 = 0.1625, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.72/9.38 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0428+0.0318)*2*1.05 = 0.1567, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/9.41 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0318*4*1.05 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.33/14.93 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0307*4*0.95 = 0.1167, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.91/18.25 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0391*4 = 0.1564, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.01/17.46 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0714*4 = 0.2856*1.1(10% QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.16/8.78 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3729, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.42/9.17 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.78/7.44(DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)

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